The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011

Transcription

1 The economic outlook for Norway Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September

2 GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China Sources: IMF and Norges Bank

3 GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China Sources: IMF and Norges Bank

4 Global imbalances Current account as percentage of world GDP. ) US Oil-exporting countries Germany and Japan China and emerging Asian economies Rest of the world ) Projections for Source: IMF

5 House prices in selected countries Index Q = US Denmark Spain UK Norway 8 Source: Thomson Reuters

6 Budget balances Per cent of GDP. Government debt Per cent of GDP. US US UK Euro area UK Euro area Euro area threshold - 8 Euro area threshold 8 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 89

7 Budget deficit, public debt, current account, banks balance sheets and cost level in In per cent of country s GDP. Projections by the European Commission GDP average - Budget balance ) Government debt ) Current account Banks balance sheets Cost level relative to Germany ) Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland Belgium ) Public sector as defined in ESA9 (Maastricht): Central, regional and municipal governments are included. Budget balance is net borrowing in public sector. Government debt equals nominal value of net debt in public sector at year-end ) Unit labour costs (ULC), relative to Germany in. Germany =. Sources: European Commission, central banks and ECB 7

8 Yield spread over German -year government bonds Percentage points. Jan Sep 8 8 Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Source: Thomson Reuters 8

9 -year government bond yields Per cent. Jan Sep 8 US Euro area UK 8 8 Source: Thomson Reuters 9

10 Global economic growth GDP growth. Four-quarter change. Q Q (Emerging economies¹) to Q) - US Euro area Emerging economies¹) Emerging Asian economies¹) - 8 ) GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank - -

11 US weak growth 98 Q Q Recession in the US Four-quarter growth in GDP Source: Thomson Reuters, NBER and Norges Bank

12 Actual and expected key rates ) Per cent. Jul 8 Dec ) US MPR / Euro area³) September UK Jul-8 Jul-9 Jul- Jul- Jul- Jul- Jul- ) Expected interest rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily figures from July 8 and quarterly figures as at September ) EONIA in euro area Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

13 Three-month money market rate differential and krone exchange rate (I-) with projections from Monetary Policy Report / ) Jan Dec I- (left-hand scale) -month rate differential (right-hand scale) 7 9 ) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate. Historical figures updated to end-august. Monthly figures (historical) and quarterly figures (ahead). - - Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

14 Prices for oil, metals, food and non-food agriculturals Weekly figures ). SDR Index. Jan = Non-food agriculturals Metals Oil Food 7 9 ) Daily figures for oil Source: Thomson Reuters

15 Growth in mainland GDP Per cent. Year Sources: Statistics Norway

16 Manufacturing output Index of production Volume. =. Seasonally adjusted. Jan Jun PMI manufacturing Diffusion indices. Seasonally adjusted. Feb Aug Output Order intake 8 7 Sources: Statistics Norway and NIMA

17 Registered unemployment As percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted Jan Jul Employment (LFS) In s. Seasonally adjusted Jan Jun Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Statistics Norway 7

18 Consumer prices -month change. Per cent. Jan Jul - CPI CPI-ATE ) CPIXE ) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank - 8

19 % % 7% 9% The economic outlook for Norway Baseline scenarios in MPR / 9 8 Key policy rate CPI Output gap CPIXE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9

20 Norges Bank s key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios Per cent. Quarterly figures. 8 Q Q Baseline scenario Increased price and cost inflation Weaker growth abroad % 7% % % 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

21 Norges Bank s regional network Established in REGION NORTH-WEST Møreforsking Molde Molde REGION SOUTH-WEST IRIS Stavanger REGION NORTH Kunnskapsparken Bodø Bodø REGION CENTRAL NORWAY Centre for Economic Research, NTNU REGION INLAND Østlandsforskning Lillehammer REGION EAST Norges Bank REGION SOUTH Agderforskning Kristiansand Important source of data for Norges Bank s Executive Board in its conduct of monetary policy Provides accurate forecasts well before official statistics are available The next report will be published on October Source: Norges Bank

22 The economic outlook for Norway Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September