3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum

Transcription

1 3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist, Itaú Unibanco Partner, Itaú BBA August 30 th, 2012

2 In Brief World: consolidating a scenario of low growth. Slow recovery in the second half. China: sustainable moderate growth. Brazil: delayed recovery in economic activity leaves room for further monetary, fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimuli. We expect a mild rebound following 3Q12. Brazil and China must rebalance their growth models. Brazil should invest (and save) more, while China should rebalance its growth model towards more consumption. Commerce and financial transactions between Brazil and China are set to keep growing: complementary trade portfolios, savings surplus/deficit. 2

3 World: Consolidation of Slow Growth E 2013 World US Euro Zone Japan China Source: Haver, CEIC, Bloomberg, Itaú Unibanco 3

4 World: Consolidation of Slow Growth GDP* (quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted) 1,4% 1,2% 1,16% 1,0% 0,8% 1,03% 1,02% 0,88% 0,78% 0,87% 0,78% 0,78% 0,74% 0,75% 0,75% 0,81% 0,82% 0,65% 0,67% 0,6% 0,56% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 * Weighted average (US, Euro Zone, China and Japan) Source: Haver, CEIC, Bloomberg, Itaú Unibanco 4

5 China: Important Contribution to Global Growth Share of Global GPD (PPP) China s Contribution to Global Growth (percentage points) 25% 1,80 16% 23% 21% 1,60 14% 19% 18,2% 1,40 12% 17% 15% 17,1% 1,20 10% 8% 13% 11% 9% 1,00 0,80 6% 4% 7% 0,60 2% 5% , % China United States Contribution to Global Growth GDP Growth(rhs) Source: IMF and Itaú Unibanco 5

6 F China: Sustainable Moderate Growth 15,0% 12,5% 10,0% 7,5% 5,0% 2,5% 0,0% -2,5% GDP Growth GDP Share (Demand) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% -5,0% 0% Total Consumption Net Exports Gross Capital Formation GDP Private Consumption Government Consumption Gross Capital Formation Net Exports Sources: CEIC and Itaú Unibanco 6

7 China: Smaller Current Account Surplus Current Account (% of GDP, 12m) Trade Balance (% of GDP, 12m) 12% 20% 10% 8% 6% 4% 15% 10% 5% 2% 0% -2% -4% F Goods Services services Income Transfers Current Account 0% -5% -10% Misc Manufactured Goods Machinery Industrial Materials Primary Sources: CEIC and Itaú Unibanco 7

8 Commodities: Real Prices Continue to Grow in the Long Term Grains: necessity to stimulate the supply of land and new technologies. Metals: correlation with chinese growth. Energy: more demand from emerging countries, rising production costs, geopolitical risk Commodities Projection CRB Index in Real Terms Sources: Itaú Unibanco and Bloomberg 8

9 Commodities: Scarce Water and Land are Relevant Factors Available Land for Agriculture (millions of hectares) Arable Land in Use, Total Suitable for Rainfed Crop Production Latin America and Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia South Asia Near East Industrial and North Countries Africa Transition Countries Source: Itaú Unibanco, FAO and Fisher et.al.(2000) 9

10 Commodities: Water is a Scarce Resource in Most of the Emerging Countries Areas With Physical/Economic Scarcity of Water Physical Scacity Close to Physical Scarcity Economic Scarcity Little or None Scarcity Not Estimated Source: Comprehensive Assessment of water Management in Agriculture,

11 e Brazil: Foreign Direct Investment Remains Robust Foreign direct investment remains robust (US$ 8.4 bi in July). 70 Accumulated FDI (in billions of dollars) Yearly FDI (in billions of dollars) , jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Source: Haver /Elaboration: Itaú Unibanco 11

12 Brazil: Monetary, Fiscal and Parafiscal Stimuli to Growth Real Interest Rates (%) (Interest rate x 12 month inflation expectation) Federal Expenditure (% of GDP, jun) 4,2% Payroll 4,3% 0,4% Subsidies 0,3% 3,3% Other 3,2% Investment 1,5% 1,3% 12 Investment ex. MCMV Transfers 1,1% 1,1% 8,2% 7,7% 10 Total Expenditure 17,6% 16,7% 8 Public Sector Share in Outstanding Loans Source: Itaú Unibanco and Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional 12

13 China Japão Japan México Mexico Peru Chile Argentina Colombia Colômbia Canadá Canada Brasil Brazil África South do Africa Sul Reino Unido UK USA Brazil Saves too Little, China Saves too Much Domestic Savings (Share of GDP, 2011) Source: Itaú Unibanco 13

14 Brazil: Lower Interest Rates and more Investment in the Long Term Real Interest Rates Investment (% GDP) 5,5% 5,0% 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 22,0% 21,5% 21,0% 20,5% 20,0% 19,5% 19,0% 18,5% 1,0% ,0% Source: IBGE, BCB e Itaú Unibanco 14

15 Brazil: Lower Interest Rates Allow Smaller Nominal Deficit Government Balance (% of GDP) 6,0 4,0 2,0 2,6 2,0 2,9 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,9 2,0 1,9 2,2 2,8 2,6 2,7 2,0 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,2 1,2 0,0-2,0-4,0-3,7-4,2-3,6-2,8-1,6-3,3-3,5-2,2-1,5-1,4-1,7-1,8-1,7-1,7-1,7-1,7-1,7-6,0-5,1-8,0-6, Primary Balance Nominal Balance Source: BCB and Itaú BBA 15

16 Bilateral Trade Grows; China is Brazil s Biggest Trade Partner Brazil and China Bilateral Trade - 12 m, US$ bi 50 Share in Brazilian International Trade 12m (exports + imports) 30% % 20% 15% % 5% 0% Brazilian Exports Brazilian Imports China European Union US Source: Itaú Unibanco 16

17 Food and Beverage Oil and Derivatives Other Materials Intermediates Textile, Clothing, Footwear Machinery, Transportation, Electronics Other Iron Ore and Concentrates Agriculture Other Durable Consumer Goods Passenger Vehicles Capital goods Other Intermediate Goods Fuels Non-Durable Consumer Goods Trade Portfolios are Complementary China: Trade Balance Breakdown (US$ mm) Brazil: Trade Balance Breakdown (US$ mm) Primary Goods Primary Goods Manufactured Manufactured Source: Itaú Unibanco 17

18 Appendix 18

19 Brazil: What We Expect in the Short Term Payment Balance Current Account Exchange Rate ICI* (eop, yoy) -18% 27% -11% * Itaú Commodities Index, dollar values Economic Activity GDP % Inflation IPCA % Monetary Policy Selic Rate % Fiscal Primary Surplus Source: Itaú Unibanco and BCB 19

20 What We Expect in the Long-Term? Source: Itaú Unibanco 20

21 China: Less Room and Less Willingness for Reaction Total Social Financing (% of GDP) Government Net Debt (% of GDP) 200% 60% 180% 160% 140% 50% 40% 120% 100% 30% 80% 60% 40% 20% 10% 20% 0% % Loans in Local Currency Others Central Govt Debt Local Govt Debt Others Sources: CEIC and Itaú Unibanco 21

22 2007.I 2007.III 2008.I 2008.III 2009.I 2009.III 2010.I 2010.III 2011.I 2011.III 2012.I Brazil: Labor Market Remains Heated Conditions are Loose in Production, Tight in Employment Lack of Qualified Workers* 4% 35 2% 30 0% 25-2% 20-4% -6% -8% Hiato Output Produção gap Hiato Employment Empregogap % * Percentage of companies that see the lack of qualified workforce as a bottleneck to growth. Quarterly survey by CNI, 2nd quarter of Source: CNI, IBGE and Itaú Unibanco 22

23 2007 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T4 Brazil: Forecasting a Rebound in the Second Half GDP Growth (quarterly, seasonally adjusted) 5% 4% Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli 3% 2,6% 2,7% 2,1% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2,0% 1,8% 1,5% 1,6% 1,5% 1,2% 0,9% 1,0% 0,9% 0,5% -0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0.5% 1.2% 1,4% -2% -1,5% -3% -4% -5% -3,9% Slower-Than-Expected Recovery Source: IBGE and Itaú Unibanco 23