Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 19 March 2004

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1 Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 9 March SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Monetary policy regulation. Monetary policy shall be aimed at stability in the Norwegian krone s national and international value, contributing to stable expectations concerning exchange rate developments. At the same time, monetary policy shall underpin fiscal policy by contributing to stable developments in output and employment. Norges Bank is responsible for the implementation of monetary policy. Norges Bank's implementation of monetary policy shall, in accordance with the first paragraph, be oriented towards low and stable inflation. The operational target of monetary policy shall be annual consumer price inflation of approximately.5 per cent over time. [ ]" SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

2 Mainland GDP In billions of NOK. Constant prices Actual Trend SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Output gap and wage gap Output gap Wage gap SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Sources: Statistics Norway, TRCIS, IMF and Norges Bank

3 Implementation of monetary policy Normally, the interest rate is set with a view to achieving inflation of ½% at the two-year horizon The choice of a two-year horizon is based on striking a balance between variability in inflation and variability in output and employment, and a perception of how interest rates influence these variables If extraordinary conditions prompt Norges Bank to apply a different time horizon than two years, the Bank will provide an assessment of this But: if confidence is in question, it may be appropriate to change the interest rate markedly The same applies if special emphasis is placed on developments in financial markets SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March GDP growth and long-term interest rates US Euro area Japan Trading partners Norway US Germany SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Sources: EcoWin, US Department of Commerce, ESRI (JP), EUR-OP/Eurostat and Norges Bank

4 NOK and the interest rate differential against trading partners Exchange rate (TWI), left-hand scale Interest rate differential, -month, right-hand scale SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Source: Norges Bank Price indicator for imported consumer goods. Foreign currency. Index. 99 Q = 9 Furniture and durable consumer goods Cars Other goods Footwear 9 Clothing 7 Audiovisual equipment SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Source: Norges Bank

5 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector. -month rise. Per cent. Jan - Dec Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE - Imported consumer goods SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Prices for air travel. Adjusted for taxes. -month rise. Jan - Jan SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

6 Productivity growth and real growth in value added in commercial services. -year moving average. Annual figures. Per cent Productivity (right-hand scale) Output (left-hand scale) SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March 7 5 Interest rate expectations in the US and euro area. Actual developments and expected key rate. Daily figures. US 7 5 Euro area Dec Dec Oct Oct 9 Mar Mar SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank

7 Real growth in household disposable income and consumption. Annual figures. Per cent Real income growth Real growth in consumption SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Gross investment as a share of value added Annual figures Services and distributive trades Average past years Manufacturing and construction SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

8 Price developments for non-residential property. Half-yearly. Moving average. Index. First half = Oslo and Bærum 9 Total 9 7 Stavanger, Bergen and Trondheim SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Regional network South-West Summary Round (January-February) The economic upturn is primarily being reinforced and driven by stronger household demand. The upturn is more extensive and substantially more pronounced compared with the situation in the last report. All sectors report stable or increasing demand and sales. The market outlook for the next six months is very positive. All sectors are characterised by growing optimism. This optimism has only resulted in a moderate willingness to invest. The picture for the petroleum and offshore supply industry is mixed. All industries continue to report that there is an ample supply of highly qualified labour. Most companies report stable employment. Wholesale and retail trade and the construction industry are the only sectors increasing their workforces. SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

9 % Public administration and other services Employment by sector, Rogaland and total In per cent of total employment (Q ) Total Rogaland % % Retail trade, hotels and restaurants Manufacturing % % Construction Agriculture, forestry, fishing Business services Transport, communication Extraction of oil and gas Financial Power- and services water provisioning SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Source: Statistics Norway Change in employment on previous year. Per cent. Unemployment ) as a percentage of the labour force. Annual figures. 9-. LFS unemployment (left-hand scale) Numbers employed (right-hand scale) - ) LFS unemployment SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

10 Employment and labour force. In millions. Monthly figures. Jan Dec. Seasonally adjusted... Labour force.5.5. Employment SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Source: Statistics Norway Annual wage growth ) and unemployment rate ) Per cent. Annual figures Annual wage growth Unemployment rate ) Average for all groups. Including cost of additional vacation days ) LFS SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Credit growth Change from same month previous year. Per cent. Non-financial enterprises Households SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Source: Norges Bank Short-term interest rates in Norway Actual and market expectations. Per cent Actual interest rate Market expectations 99 SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Source: Norges Bank

12 Household assets and debt 99. Per cent Assets Debt Housing ( %) Gross financial wealth ( %) Debt (9 %) Note: Disposable income (5%) SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March House prices and household debt Annual rise. Per cent 5 Household debt 5 5 House prices Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

13 Projections for CPI-ATE ) and the output gap ) Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap - - ) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products ) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output. See box in IR / SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Norges Banks monetary policy meeting. march At the monetary policy meeting on March, Norges Bank s Executive Board decided to reduce the interest rate on banks deposits with Norges Bank, the sight deposit rate, by.5 percentage point to.75 per cent with effect from March. The interest rate on banks overnight loans was reduced correspondingly. According to Norges Bank s assessment, with a sight deposit rate of.75 per cent at present, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be lower than ½ per cent is greater than the probability that it will be higher. SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March

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