Germany s energy transi.on (and implica.ons for Australia)

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1 Germany s energy transi.on (and implica.ons for Australia) Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel Wilhelms- University Münster April 2015

2 The German Energy Transi.on end 1990s: fundamental decision for renewable energy system 2010: Energy Concept of German Government Securing a reliable, economically viable and environmentally sound energy supply is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. [ ] 2011: Fukushima and decision to phase out nuclear by 2022 Energiewende needs monitoring 2

3 Monitoring the Energy Transition Progress Report 2014 A lot achieved, a lot ahead Energy-Transition/monitoring.html Energy-Transition/progressreport,did= html 3

4 Long Term Targets of the Energy Transi.on 96,7% (Ren 25,3%) 96,0% (Ren 12,0%) energy productivity 2,1% Total electricity consumption Renewable electricity share in electricity generation Primary energy consumption Renewable energy share in final energy consumption 101,0 Primary energy supply in buildings Primary energy supply in transport sector -22,6% Sources: AGEB, AGEE, BMU, Bundesregierung, UBA 4

5 Develop pathways and consistent targets Develop hierarchy of targets not all have the same importance What has to be strictly achieved, what is indicaove and adjusted if enconomic, social, environmental costs turn out to be too high? Oberziele Main targets Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen GHG emissions Ausstieg aus der Nuclear Kernenergie phase out Unterziele 1. Ebene IndicaOve targets 1st level Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien Share am of Brutto- EEV renewables Energy Reduktion efficiency des PEV 2nd level 2. Ebene Biomethan- biogas einspeisung Kraftstoffe aus EE Wärme aus EE Strom aus EE fuel heat electr. Strom aus KWK Red. Strom- verbrauch Red. EEV Raumwärme Red. EEV Verkehr 3. Ebene 3rd level Maßnahmen Measures GasNZV BioKraftFÄndG MAP EEWärmeG Offshore- Windleistung off- shore EEG (Novelle) KfW- Programm Offshore- Wind KWKG (Novelle) Sanierungs- rate Source: Löschel et al. (2012) Monitoring: Is actual progress as expected and to what extent are addioonal acoons needed NABEG insulaoon Energie- und Klimafonds EnWG (Novelle) 5

6 Where are we: changes and targets Historical change bzw bzw Average yearly change in % bzw GHG emissions 1) -1,3-1,1-2,8-3,6/-7,9 3) Primary energy consumption 2) -0,2-1,3-2,6-1,6 Primary energy productivity 2) 1,9 1,7 3,0 2,5 Gross electricity consumption 2) 0,3-0,7-1,0-0,6 Electricity consumption productivity 2) 1,1 1,4 1,6 1,5 Final energy productivity 1) 1,8 1,1 2,6 2,1 Final energy use (heating) (households) 1) -0,7-2,9-1,3-4,5 Final energy use in transport 1) 0,3-0,1 4) -1,2-1,3 CHP-electricity 1) 2,3-3,2 5) 1,6-3,1 3,6-4,5 1) Bezugsjahr ) Bezugsjahr ) Emissionsminderung -80%/-95% 4) ) Necessary change to reach target 6

7 GHG emission reduc.ons Government determined to reach 40% GHG reducoon target CO 2 from electricity sector: lignite (159 Mt), hard coal (87Mt), gas etc (66 Mt) PossibiliOes Measures outside ETS (buidings, transport) Strengthen ETS (MSR, reorement) 1400 ReOre EUAs 1200 Measures in electricity sector 1000 NaOonal CO 2 - tax Proposal aher Climate AcOon Programm: lignite in cap reserve (- 80%) 60 (- 95%) Treibhausgasemissionen in Mio. t CO 2äqu. Summe Treibhausgasemissionen Minderungsziele Veränderungen der Treibhausgasemissionen Ist- Entwicklung von 1990 bis 2013 : - 23,8 % (- 1,2 % p.a.) Notwendige Minderung 2013 bis 2020 : - 21,2 % (- 3,3 % p.a.) zur Zielerreichung: 2020 bis 2050(- 80%) : - 66,7 % (- 3,6 % p.a.) 2020 bis 2050(- 95%) : - 92,0 % (- 8,1 % p.a.) 7

8 Renewable support effec.ve, but not efficient Energien [MW] Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG): long term fixed technology specific feed- in tariffs with privileged access to market and obligaoon for network connecoon: 20,5 GW ( 04) to > 80 GW ( 14) EEG 2014: reducoon in feed in tariffs, targets for annual increase in installaoons Effizienzziel bis 2020 nicht erreicht ð Bruttostromverbrauch in 2020 bei 600 TWh/a New support scheme aher 2017 (market integraoon, grid development) Effizienzziel bis 2020 erreicht ð Bruttostromverbrauch ab 2020 bei 556 TWh/a 37,1 % 40,0 % Installed renewable capacity Power production in 2014 (610 TWh) ,5 % ,2 % 46,6 % Wasserkraft Water Windenergie onshore an Land Windenergie Offshore Photovoltaik Biomasse Biomass biogener Anteil des Abfalls Geothermie Stromerzeugung Geothermal Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien [GWh/a] Source: AG Energiebilanzen 8

9 Nuclear phase- out and capacity nuclear (and fossil) producoon plants close to consumers Source: BNetzA 9

10 Transmission grid extension lacks behins Finished km Target 2009 Target

11 Energy consump.on and energy efficiency Final energy efficiency improved since 1991, but improvements slower aher 2008, 0,9 %/year ( ) Lowest improvement in industry and transport ( ) NaOonal AcOon Plan for Energy Efficiency (NAPE) adopted December GHD Services Straßengüterverkehr Freight transport Gesamtwirtschah Total economy Straßenpersonenverkehr Road transport Haushalte Households Industrie Industry Source: Expert commission on the Energy of the future monitoring process, Statement on the first progress report by the German government, December

12 Costs play a crucial role, distribu.on mazers Energy costs increase sharply due to support for renewable capacioes, transmission and distribuoon grid investment, investments in backup capacioes and storage total amount FiT increased from 2 bn (2002) to about 20 bn (2012) - on average 19 ct/kwh FiT renewable costs per household with 3500 kwh/year up from 55 EUR in 2010 to 220 EUR 2014 Total electricity costs for final consumers (bn EUR) Total electricity costs rela.ve to GDP Source: Energy Monitoring Commission (2012), Löschel et al.

13 Costs play a crucial role, distribu.on mazers Willingness to pay unclear - on average <<, but posiove - ca. 12 Euro/ton CO 2 - but: more than 60% 0 EUR! Electricity Price for Households ( - ct/kwh) GeneraOon, Transport, Sales VAT Concession Fee EEG Energy- Tax Others Source: Data BDEW, German Sta.s.c Office, Own Illustra.on Average Electricity Price for Industry ( - ct/kwh) Average Electricity Price for Energy- intensive Industry GeneraOon, Transport, Sales Concession Fee EEG Energy- Tax Others Source: Data BDEW, German Sta.s.c Office, Own Illustra.on Source: Fron.er / EWI (2012) 13

14 Real per unit energy costs in manufacturing sector Real per unit energy costs as source of comparative advantage 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% EU 27 USA CHN JPN DEU FRA GBR 0% Source: Germeshausen und Löschel (2015)

15 Energy costs in different manufacturing sectors 30% Nahrung, Getränke und Tabak TexOlien und TexOlprodukte 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Leder, Lederwaren und Schuhe Holz und Holz- und Korkprodukte Papier, Pappe, Waren darauf, Druckerzeugnisse Chemie und chemische Produkte Gummi- und Kunststoffwaren Andere nicht- metallische Mineralien Metallerzeugung und Metallerzeugnisse Maschinenbau Elektronische und Erzeugnisse Krahwagen, Krahwagenerzeugnisse, sonsoger Fahrzeugbau Möbel und sonsoge Waren Quelle: Germeshausen und Löschel (2015)

16 Real per unit energy costs in chemical sector Shale gas boom etc. vs Energiewende Energy per unit costs from gas and oil Energy per unit costs from electricity & steam France Germany France UK UK Germany Quelle: Germeshausen und Löschel (2015) 16

17 Energy innova.on crucial for success Focus on renewable patents, high absolute numbers

18 Conclusion: Energiewende Gaps in climate target and efficiency Climate policies largely determined in ETS sectors à focus on ETS reform and non- ETS sectors Renewable policies not efficient - use market mechanisms as far as possible (premia and market spliyng) Grid extension as a bozleneck (also in EU) Total costs are soll under control even though prices increased, costs for industry important (also consideraoon of energy poverty) Willingness to pay for climate measures in Germany to be seen à acceptance unclear European vision is necessary harmonisaoon of renewable support and further development of internal market for energy 18

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