Apples Review of 2012/13 season Prognosfruit - Congress 2013 Helwig Schwartau, AMI
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1 Apples Review of 2012/13 season Prognosfruit - Congress 2013 Helwig Schwartau, AMI
2 Market balance for table apples in EU tons 2009/ / / /13f Market production Import EU 1) Export EU 1) = Consumption 2) Per capita (kg) 20,7 18,1 19,1 17,9 Note: 1) ) Without market losses, incl. proscessing of table apples Source: AMI / EUROSTAT - f = forecast Southern Hemisphere apple export to Europe t more than last year. More Polish exports, Western Europe with clear less exports
3 Apple exports of the EU-27 in 2012/13 (August April), comparison to 2011/12 EU West t ( t) EU East t ( t) Russia (till May) t (+34%) North Africa t (-11%) Middle East t (-18%) Asia t (-44%) Helwig Schwartau: Apples Apples - Review - Review of 2012/13 of 2010/11 season season Source: Eurostat
4 Apple imports in 2012/13 (August April), comparison to 2011/12 UK t (+3%) Scand t (+3%) FRA Export t ( t) FRA t ( t) SP t (+5%) GER t (-14%) South Eastern Europe t (+21%) Helwig Schwartau: Apples Apples - Review - Review of 2012/13 of 2010/11 season season Source: Eurostat
5 6,000 5,000 EU apples: Development of monthly stocks tons Reduction stocks 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, / / / /13 Nov. Dec. 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July
6 Sale prices P.O. South Tyrol, Gala table apples, class I Source: VOG +45% 2012/ / / /
7 Low stocks in Western Europe, record stocks in the East EU West: Lowest stocks of the last years Prive level % above 2012 Scarely exports to Russia EU East: Record stocks Big size/ low condition Polish export to Russia in competition with Moldova/Ukraine EU-27: apple stocks 1st January Mio. tons EU East EU West
8 Sale prices for Jonagold - Poland and Veilinge Netherland table apples, class I EUR/100kg Netherlands Polish price range Source: AMI Increasing market Low exports to Russia Stable price, different quality Cold storage, bad quality
9 Poland with record crop 2012 Increasing production Normal crop 3-3,2 Mio. t 2012 in addition big size Freshmarket 2012/13 Export 1 Mio. t Domestic 0,5-0,6 Mio. t Processing 2012/ t t AJC Last years only t t A lot of questions for 2013/ Poland: Forecast and crop 2012 Mio. tons '12 f 12 real processing freshmarket
10 Sale prices P.O. Niederelbe/Bodensee table apples, class I EUR/100 kg Veilinge Netherland Elstar / / / / Source: AMI
11 Sale prices P.O. South Tyrol, Golden table apples, class I Source: VOG +45% 2012/ / /
12 Consumption Germany, France, Italy, Spain tons Consum'12/13 EUR/kg 2.0 Consum'11/ Consum'10/11 Price '12/ Price '11/12 Price '10/ Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1.0
13 Apple consumption in Western Europe North Europe Germany - Normal crop, less pressure from imports Belgium Less crop, sales domestic market/france Austria Less crop, competition between supermarkets UK, consumption less 6%, but 2009 till 2011 = +10% Germany Belgium Austria UK % 2012/13 vs. 2011/ South Europe France Less crop, more import apples Italia - Economic crisis difficult wholesale market Spain Less crop interesting import market France Italy Spain volumen price
14 EU-27: Imports overseas apples (till July) Chile: Worldwide exports t, t more than year (Europe) New Zealand: More exports to Europe (+10%), Asia the same than last year (+2%) South Africa: The most worldwide exports ( t) of the last years, more to Europe /Africa Argentina: Increasing exports to Europe Brazil: More exports to Europe than expected tons Brazil Argentina South Africa New Zealand Chile Source: AMI
15 German and overseas apples price development (FOT) EUR/100kg week
16 Europe: Price development for AJC since February EUR/kg EU AJC (soure) China AJC (sweet) Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Source: AMI/Fl. Obst
17 Processing apple price development Poland August a lot of processing from less modern orchards Price slowly going down Record volume AJC Strong export of processing apples to Western Europe Poland (EUR/100 kg) Western Europe Big price difference to Poland (cost for transport) Free industry (autumn) Germany 15/18,- Italy 16/17,- Benelux 20/22, A S O N D J F M A M J J 2012/ / / /10
18 Germany consumption apple juice (GfK) Mio. litre apple juice orange juice "Multivitamin' juice other fruit juice Euro/litre Organic apple juice normal apple juice 1,314 1,265 1, st Hj.11 1st Hj.12 1st Hj
19 Europe - Sale prices Organic table apples, class I Apple crop: 2013 = t 2012 = t 2011 = t 2012/ / / Source: AMI/EBF
20 CONCLUSION: THE BEST SEASON OF THE LAST YEARS (FOR COUNTRIES WITH >80% OF NORMAL CROP) THANKS A LOT FOR YOUR ATTENTION. Helwig.Schwartau@AMI-informiert.de +49 (0)
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