Milk Market Situation. Brussels, 27 August 2015

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1 Milk Market Situation Brussels, 27 August

2 EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jun compared to Jan-Jun 214) +,8% + 1,2% + 3,2% +,2% +,7% - 2,% - 3,1% -,1% - 11,1%!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table!!! 27 August 2

3 +1,5 -,7-4,6 -,9 +7,8 +1,4 +1,9 +5,5 -,2 +,3 +4,2 +3,6 +1,8 +1,2-12% to -9% -9% to -6% -6% to -3% -3% to +% +% to +3% +3% to +6% +6% to +9% +9% to +12% n/a -,9-1,9 +2,8-3, +7,4-7,8 -,1-1,5 +5,3 +1,6-3,3 27 August Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/21.1(a)1 3-6,6

4 +1,2-1, -5,1 -,1 +12,3 +2,1 +5,9 +3,2 +9,4 +1, +2,3 +4,7 +3,5 +4,8 +,1-16% to -12% -12% to -8% -8% to -4% -4% to +% +% to +4% +4% to +8% +8% to +12% +12% to +16% n/a +,5 -,7 +4,1-2,3 +6,4-8,5 +1,2 +1,8 +5,1 +3,9-1,3 27 August Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/21.1(a)1 4-4,6

5 1 Tonnes EU - Cows' milk collected Jan-Jun /14 : +,8% 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : Estat - Newcronos Last update : Jan-Jun 27 August Source: MS communications to Eurostat 5

6 27 August 6

7 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 EUR/1 kg EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to July *) * : estimated price in running month 5 Weighted EU Average (real fat content) 45 EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices) Milk Prices (LTO) , 3 25, Source :MS communications under reg. 562/25 & 479/21 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland ( 27 August 7

8 21,3 2,7 24,3 23,6 23,3 32,7 32,2 31,9 31,8 31,8 3,5 3,1 3, 29,4 28,8 28,8 28,8 28,2 27,7 27,4 27, 27, 26,6 26,6 34,7 in EUR/1 kg 37, 41,6 43,9 55,8 E U M I L K P R I C E S ( Jun vs Jun 214 ) Source : Member States (Reg. 479/21) 6 Milk Price 214 Milk Price CY MT GR FI IT AT HR GB SE DK NL FR EU ES DE LU PT IE SI BE SK PL CZ BG HU RO EE LV LT Estimates for DK, IE, ES, SE NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/21 Source: MS communications under Reg. 479//21 27 August 8

9 in EUR/1 kg. EU Quotations of Butter and SMP (EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production) Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price BUTTER prices SMP prices Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Source: MS communications under reg. 562/25 and 479/21 27 August 9

10 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 in EUR/1 kg EU Dairy Quotations (EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production) 44 BUTTER SMP WMP CHEDDAR Source: MS communications under reg. 562/25 and 479/21 27 August 1

11 27 August 11

12 Quantity in tonnes Private Storage Aid Scheme (214-) - BUTTER Quantities In Quantities Out Quantities offered into private storage Stocks level (end of month) SEP 14 OCT 14 NOV 14 DEC 14 JAN 15 FEB 15 MAR 15 APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 JUL August 12

13 Quantity in tonnes Private Storage Aid Scheme (214-) - S.M.P. Quantities In Quantities Out Quantities offered into private storage Stocks level (end of month) SEP 14 OCT 14 NOV 14 DEC 14 JAN 15 FEB 15 MAR 15 APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 JUL August 13

14 US Dollar USD/EUR August Source: European Central Bank 14

15 Latest Quotations Week - 2 In US$/t 23/8/ 9/8/ % change (previous quotation) EU Oceania USA EU Oceania USA EU Oceania USA Butter % + 4.3% % SMP % + 3.3% % WMP % + 7.2% + 2.2% Cheddar % + 3.9% +.3% Source : Member States Notifications, USDA 27 August 15

16 Milk collection in the main milk producing regions in 1 t 214 EU 147.6, 6.4, 4,5% ,4 624,3,8% US 93.46, ,9 2,4% ,8 747,1 1,6% NZ , 1.694, 7,8% 8.43, 78,,9% AUS 9.376,4 331,8 3,5% 4.147, 12,7 2,5% Total , ,7 3,9% , , 1,1% MAIN EXPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES Jan-Jun compared to 214 BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P. Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 New Zealand % % % 71-8% EU % 343-1% % 198-8% United States 14-73% % 29-6% 22-28% Australia 2-9% % % 36-2% Belarus % % % 15-1% Argentina 5-25% 19-24% % 62-13% 25 August 16

17 EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT) BUTTER exports 1 Tonnes tonnes BUTTER exports Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : + 1% 4 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Tonnes SMP exports 1 tonnes SMP exports Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : + 9% 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 27 August 17

18 EU-28 Exports (2/2) 1 Tonnes WMP exports 1 tonnes WMP exports Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : - 8% 1 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Tonnes CHEESE exports 1 tonnes CHEESE exports Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : - 1% 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 27 August 18

19 MAIN IMPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES Jan-Jun compared to 214 BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P. Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 China 33-38% % 19-28% % Russia up to M ay 27-58% 66-58% % 12-15% Japan % % % + 59% United States % - 65% % Mexico up to M ay % % % 3 + 3% Algeria no - 1% - 1% - 1% - 1% 27 August 19

20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec in 1 tonnes U.S. milk production Jan-Jun vs 214 : +,2% (real monthly production) Source:USDA 27 August 2

21 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun in 1 tonnes Australian milk production Jul-Jun 214/15 compared to 213/14 : + 2,6% /13 213/14 214/15 / August 21 Source: Dairy Australia

22 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May in 1 tonnes. NZ milk production Jun-Jun /16 compared to 214/15 : + 8,1% /13 213/14 214/15 / Source: DCANZ - Fonterra 27 August 22

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