Consumer prices and the money supply
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1 Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Consumer prices and GDP per inhabitant Annual rise. Per cent. Moving average Consumer prices Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank GDP per inhabitant JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
2 Industrial output. Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted US Euro area - - Japan - - Percentage rise on same month previous year Sources: Datastream, the Federal Reserve Board and EcoWin JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar US - Confidence indicators Index values. Consumer confidence 98= Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted Business confidence (ISM-PMI), right-hand scale Consumer confidence, left-hand scale Sources: Datastream, the Conference Board and the Institute for Supply Management JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
3 Consumer confidence in the euro area Household expectations for the next months Seasonally adjusted diffusion index Own situation - Consumer confidence General economic situation Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Sources: EcoWin - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar GDP growth Projection from Consensus Forecasts. Percentage growth on previous year Trading partners Japan US Germany - - Jan/ Mar/ May/ Jul/ Sep/ Nov/ Jan/ - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
4 Oil prices Brent Blend USD per barrel IR / Futures prices January jun.99 des.99 jun. des. jun. des. jun. des. jun. des. Sources: Norges Bank, Telrate and IPE JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar The value of NOK measured in terms of the tradeweighted exchange rate index 99= JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
5 Traditional merchandise exports Percentage growth on same quarter previous year Volume Prices Source: Statistics Norway - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Retail sales index 99 = Seasonally adjusted volume Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Statistics Norway 8 JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
6 8 Households Non-fin. enterpr. Municipalities Share of loan debt in November C by borrower sector -month rise Per cent 6 6 Municipalities Households Non-financial enterprises 8 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Significance for financial stability Debt burden of households ) and enterprises ) 6 Enterprises (right-hand scale) 6 Households (left-hand scale) ) Household borrowing as a percentage of disposable income, last four quarters ) Interest-bearing debt in non-financial enterprises as a percentage of cash surplus excl. interest expenses *First half of Source: Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
7 Private sector borrowing and cyclical fluctuations Private sector net investments in financial assets (left-hand scale) Output gap (righthand scale) Sources: National Budget and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Change in unemployment in number of persons from same month previous year. 8 Whole country 8 6 Central Norway 6 Southern Norway Western Norway Northern Norway - - Eastern Norway Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- -6 Source: Directorate of Labour JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
8 Structural non-oil deficit Percentage of mainland GDP Use of petroleum revenues 6 Source: Ministry of Finance JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Phasing in of petroleum revenues Structural, non-oil deficit. prices Change from previous year As % of trend BNP Source: Ministry of Finance. National Budget. JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
9 Main macroeconomic aggregates - Inflation Report /. Percentage change from previous year Private consumption ¾ ¾ Public consumption ½ ¼ ½ Gross investment - -¾ Business investment -¾ -½ ¾ Traditional exports ¾ - ½ Imports ¼ ¼ Mainland GDP ¼ ½ ¾ Rise in labour costs ½ Employment ½ ¼ ½ LFS unemployment (rate) ½ ½ ½ JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar The inflation projection CPI adjusted for changes in real taxes and energy prices (CPIATE) 6 -month rise. Per cent 6 Goods and services produced in Norway CPIATE Inflation target = ½ Imported consumer goods - Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
10 Uncertainty associated with the inflation projection % % 7% 9% ) Consumer price inflation adjusted for changes in real taxes and energy prices (CPIATE) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar
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