Pensions Reform and Capital Markets A UK Perspective

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1 Pensions Reform and Capital Markets A UK Perspective Adair Turner Capital Matters Conference 26 th April, 2006

2 Rate of return in PAYG system Retirement Income Working Life Contributions Function of % of Adult Life Working =, Growth, % Retired Population Productivity Growth Rate of return in a stable PAYG scheme = Population growth rate + Productivity Growth Rate 1

3 Fishing boats, fish and a falling population Steady State Demographic Change 1,000 population 500 per generation 500 working, 500 retired Workers work Half time fishing Half time building a boat 500 generation of retirees followed by 250 generation of workers Retirees would like to sell 500 boats they have built Workers only need to buy 250 boats Boats wear out over one working life Relative price: 1 boat = ½ of catch for one working life Price of boats, relative to fish, will fall 2

4 Welfare maximisation through liberating risk-return preferences High Return A B Low High Risk Low 3

5 Gross mandatory pension system values Gross pension as a percentage of average earnings 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Individual's earnings as multiple of average Netherlands Sweden Spain Australia USA UK New Zealand Strongly earnings related systems - Netherlands on quasi compulsory savings basis Intermediate systems - Australia on compulsory savings basis Purely flat-rate system Source: Monitoring Pension Policies, Annex: Country Chapters 4

6 State pension at retirement of average earner as % of average earnings 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Basic State Pension State earnings related pension Scheme/ State second pension Increase due to S2P Note: This shows the maximum state pension that someone could receive if they had a full contribution record Source: UK Government Actuary's Quinquennial Review of the National Insurance Fund as at April

7 Gross replacement rate from mandatory UK system: % Contributory Pensions only 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 9,000 13,500 21,250 32,500 50,000 Annual earnings Age 60 today Age 21 today 6

8 Active members of private sector Defined Benefit pension schemes by scheme status Millions Millions Open DB Closed DB Source: UK Government Actuary Department,

9 Participation in public and private sector non-state pension schemes: % of workforce 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Private sector Public sector 1996/ / /05 Source: UK Pensions Commission estimates 8

10 Percentage of employees participating in a 401(K) pension scheme 100 Percentage participating Tenure (months) No automatic enrolment Automatic enrolment Note: This shows the participation rate for two cohorts of employees within the same firm. The automatic enrolment cohort were employees who had to make a specific decision to opt out of the 401(k) plan, the no-automatic enrolment cohort had to make a specific decision to join the 410(k) plan. Source: Madrian and Shea

11 Cost curve for pension provision Percentage reduction in yield 1.4% 1.2% Annual Management Charge 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% < State pension system Personal pensions monthly premium level Occupational schemes No of members 000's 10

12 Aggregate National Pension Savings Scheme funds Projections 25% 20% Percentage of GDP 15% 10% 5% 0% % real rate of return 3.5% real rate of return 4.5% real rate of return Source: UK Pensions Commission estimates 11

13 Stock of annuities arising from the NPSS 14% 12% Percentage of GDP 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Stock of annuities in payment Source: UK Pensions Commission analysis 12

14 Real yields to maturity on UK index-linked gilts Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 13 01/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2004 Percent 01/01/2005

15 Sterling real gilt yield 2.000% 1.800% 1.600% 1.400% 1.200% 1.000% 0.800% 0.600% 0.400% 0.200% 0.000% UKTI 2.5% 2024 UKTI 2% Nov-05 Dec-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Jan-06 Nov-05 Oct-05 Oct-05 Sep-05 Sep-05 Aug-05 Aug-05 Aug-05 Jul-05 Jul-05 Jun-05 Jan-05 Jan-05 Jan-05 Feb-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 Apr-05 May-05 May-05 Jun-05

16 UK Real Yield minus US Real Yield 0.000% % % % % % % % 15 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 20y real UK - US 30y real UK - US

17 Longevity risk in UK pension provision bn of total liabilities broad estimates Pre-retirement? Still in Employment Post-retirement? Already in Payment Insurance Companies 10? 70? Pension Funds 400? 400? Unfunded Public Employee Pensions State Pensions Basic Earnings-related Total

18 Risks in pension provision: Who will/should bear them? Government Corporations Insurance Companies Individuals Longevity risk Pre-retirement Longevity risk Post-retirement Up to a basic level Investment return risk Pre-retirement Low risk/low return Up to a basic level 17

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