Insights into the Future: Business Intelligence in International Education

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1 Insights into the Future: Business Intelligence in International Education NEAS Conference 2010 Melissa Banks

2 Australia s International Student Program (AEI) 250, , , ,000 50,000 Higher Education VET Schools ELICOS Other/non award

3 Australia s International Student Program (multiple sources) 800, , , , , , , ,000 ELICOS Non Student Visa Enrolments Higher Education Offshore Enrolments VET Offshore Enrolments AEI Student Visa Enrolments

4 Data Challenges Sources Accessibility Differing methodologies Differing terminologies and definitions Different scope Lag in collection and publication Lack of data

5 What does the data tell us? COULD WE HAVE FORESEEN WHAT WAS COMING?

6 Student Visa Enrolments By Sector (AEI) Higher Education VET Non Government VET Government Schools ELICOS Other Non Award

7 Student Visa Enrolments from India By Sector (AEI) 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Higher Education VET Non Government VET Government Schools ELICOS Other Non Award

8 ELICOS Enrolments By Provider Type (AEI) 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Government Non Government

9 Government VET Enrolments India (AEI) 250, , , ,000 VET All Providers Government India Government 50,

10 Non Government VET Enrolments India (AEI) 250, , , ,000 VET All Providers Non Government India Non Government 50, This is what we technically refer to as a bubble

11 ELICOS Student Enrolments India (AEI) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Changes to CALS 573 Sept Government Non Government

12 International Student Enrolments USA (Open Doors) India Other India is not in the top 20 source countries for intensive English programs

13 International Student Enrolments in Australia (AEI) Total enrolments GFC Oil crisis Bird flu Asian economic crisis 9/11 SARS Global student mobility is fairly resilient but destination countries can intentionally or unintentionally restrict inbound flows

14 Can We Weather the Perfect Storm? WHAT IS HAPPENING?

15 Student Visa Trends Increased visa rejections (India) Reduction in visa applications especially from India o H Ed- applications down India, Nepal o VET- applications down top 3 markets India, China and Nepal o Schools- applications down largest market China o ELICOS- applications down all top student visa markets China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Thailand

16 Offshore Student Visa Grants (DIAC) AusAid Defence Non Award PGR H ED VET Schools 2006/ / / /10* ELICOS

17 Offshore e-visa Grants (DIAC) Non Award PGR H ED VET Schools 2006/ / / /10* ELICOS

18 All Offshore Student Visa Grants (DIAC) Non Award PGR H ED VET Schools 2006/ / / /10* Program Year ELICOS

19 Student Visa Applications (July- Jan) H ED VET 2008/09 Schools 2009/10 ELICOS

20 Enquiry Trends as a Lead Indicator Enquiry data is sourced from Hobsons Enquiry Management Service (HEMS) 14 Australian Universities and several TAFE and private VET providers Hobsons has collected almost 10 years of enquiry data The enquiry pipeline for higher education is typically months duration

21 Enquiries (Hobsons)

22 Enquiries (Hobsons)

23 Enquiries (Hobsons)

24 Enquiries (Hobsons)

25 Barriers to Entry and Demand Dampeners WHAT IS DAMPENING DEMAND FOR AUSTRALIA?

26 Barriers to Entry How to manage demand Tighten visa regulations (CALS, Financial sponsors, living costs requirements) Visa rejections Changes to GSM policies and MODL/SOL Increase tuition fees Constrain supply

27 International Students in US (Open Doors) Impact of closed borders

28 What Is Impacting Brand Australia? Costs/ Currency Provider quality Cost of living Availability (or not) of affordable student accommodation Quality of the student experience and positive word of mouth referral

29 Currency USD/AUD USD/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service:

30 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Currency INR/AUD INR/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service:

31 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Currency KRW/AUD KRW/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service:

32 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Currency CNY/AUD CNY/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service:

33 Provider Quality Rankings Positive word of mouth referral- current and past students Awards recognition Graduate outcomes Recent closure of English language centres and VET colleges

34 Cost of Living (Prospect Research) Accommodation and living costs are of key concern Cost of living is greater than expected causing students to adapt their expectations and behaviour 48% have curbed their lifestyle Almost 30% have chosen to work part time even though they had originally not intended to work while they studied 22% moved to less expensive accommodation

35 Cost of Living (Prospect Research) 49% found the costs associated with studying to be higher than expected due to costs of books, printing and internet access For one in seven the differential has caused them significant financial hardship

36 Cost of Living (Prospect Research)

37 Student Experience TDA (i-graduate ISB)

38 Student Experience EA (i-graduate ISB)

39 Student Experience TDA (i-graduate ISB)

40 Student Experience EA (i-graduate ISB)

41 Student Experience EA (i-graduate ISB)

42 Student Experience Off-Campus TDA (i-graduate ISB)

43 Student Experience Off-Campus EA (i-graduate ISB)

44 Trends in Global Student Mobility SO WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON?

45 Growth in Global Tertiary Education Enrolments (UNESCO) As more students participate in tertiary education numbers travelling abroad increases proportionally

46 Destinations of International Students (OECD) Other OECD countries, 7.0% Netherlands, 1.3% Switzerland, 1.4% Belgium, 1.4% China, 1.4% Sweden, 1.4% Austria, 1.4% South Africa, 1.8% Italy, 1.9% Spain, 2.0% Russian Federation, 2.0% New Zealand, 2.1% Japan, 4.2% Other partner countries, 11.3% Canada, 4.4% Australia, 7.0% France, 8.2% United States 19.7% Germany 8.6% MESDCs are hosting a declining share United Kingdom 11.6%

47 Shifts in Global Student Mobility (Lasanowski in OBHE) Middle Powers- Germany, France, China. Combined 25% share drawing from proximate or culturally affiliated countries Shape Shifters- Canada, NZ, Japan. Combined 10% share of all mobile tertiary students. Remain in the shadow of more popular neighbours Emerging Contenders- Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea. Combined 5% share. These markets have established themselves as regional hubs. Directional flows are shifting west to east and east to east Two step mobility (eg China to Singapore to Australia).

48 Growing Regionalism (UNESCO) Sub Saharan Africa South and West Asia Western Europe North America Latin America and Carribean East Asia and Pacific Central Asia Central and Eastern Europe Arab States % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% % Studying in Region 2007 % Studying Outside Region 2007

49 Increased Mobility in Some Regions (UNESCO) Outbound Mobility Ratio (%) 2007

50 Concentration By Fields of Study (UNESCO) Mobile students Domestic students 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Business and Administration Eng, Manuf and Constr'n Social Sciences & Law Education Agriculture Science Humanities and Arts Health & Welfare Services

51 Levels of Study (UNESCO) Mobile students Domestic students 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Occupationally Oriented Bachelors Masters Advanced Research

52 Global Language Travel (Language Travel Magazine Survey) Students Students

53 Global ELT Market Share (adjusted from English Australia)

54 Can we avoid this happening again? SO WHERE TO FROM HERE?

55 Make Hay While the Sun Shines But... Diffuse risk: Source markets Products: o General Skilled Migration courses o Pathways o Industry/ professional awards, internationally certified, government endorsed programs Mode of offering Monitor trends and identify opportunities/ risks Quality of the student experience/ retention Consult and collaborate

56 Growth Markets Factors that impact demand for tertiary education: Population Income Participation Factors that impact demand for international tertiary education: Access and supply at home Numbers coming to Australia: Market share

57 Global Demand Forecasts Global Number of International Students ('000) , ,576 1,403 1, Growth Rate 5.50% 1.10% 2.60% 3.00% 4.50% 3.90% Africa Middle East Asia America Europe Oceania GSM 2007 (Banks, Olsen, Pearce)

58 Global Shares 100% Global Number of International Students Shares 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Africa Middle East Asia America Europe Oceania GSM 2007 (Banks, Olsen, Pearce)

59 Forecasting History tells us: UNESCO Average 4% growth per annum since 1975 IIE Open Doors just over 4% growth per annum since 1975 GSM 2007 forecast average global growth of 2.7% through to 2025 (3.7 million) Average growth of 2.9% for Australian higher education through to 2025 (291K)

60 Supply and Demand The Global Student Mobility Study 2007 determined that Australia s universities will have satisfied their appetites/ reached capacity at 26% of representation. Currently international students represent just over 20% of the total onshore student population. There will be opportunities for the private sector. Enrolments in private HEPs are growing at a faster rate than enrolments at public universities.

61 Commencing VET Enrolments from India (AEI) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Auto Engineering Baking and Pastrymaking Welfare Studies Hairdressing Cookery 2, November trade occupations listed on MODL. By May 2008 this had been increased to 49 March 2009 CSL introduced, only 5 trade occupations listed September 2009 priority processing only for those with post-graduate qualifications and occupations listed on CSL January 2010 Vocational English threshold increased to 6.0, work ready test

62 Pathways to Higher Education 40% of commencing international higher education students were already located in Australia (AUIDF Benchmarking) Of all the commencing higher education students in 2008 over 18% came from an ELICOS program. ELICOS is the largest pathway into higher education. An estimated 67% of all ELICOS students studying on a student visa continue their studies on completion of their initial ELICOS program (AEI Pathways data)

63 Government VET Enrolments Students based in China Other TNE Enrolments China Enrolments Onshore Other Onshore Enrolments

64 Diversification Students based in China Students based elsewhere Public VET TNE (NCVER)

65 Diversification Students based in China Other TNE Enrolments China Enrolments Onshore Other Onshore Enrolments Almost 60% of international students enrolled in Government VET are from China

66 Retention Recent study with 17 case study institutions found: The annual cost to Australia s universities was $1 billion dollars ($36 Million per university) in lost fee revenue and marketing costs. Every one percent drop saves $100 million or $2.6 million per university Hobsons Retention Study 2010

67 Monitor Trends Population (UN World Population Prospects) yrs Look for growth or decline in yr olds and Income PPP (IMF) Look at changes in actual PPP and forecasts Participation in Education (UNESCO) Look for growth in participation in upper secondary. This will drive Upper secondary demand for tertiary education Look to see what proportion of the population is participating in Tertiary tertiary education Look for expansion in tertiary provision. Is it adequate to meet Growth in tertiary education places increasing population and participation in upper secondary? Investment in Education % GDP Outbound Mobility (UNESCO, IIE) To what extent is the government investing. It is often helpful to compare against other markets eg Australia or other source markets # Studying abroad globally Is there a culture of studying abroad? % studying in MESDC Do students seek to study in a MESDC? Key destination markets Where do they go Australia's market share What proportion come to Australia?

68 Monitor Trends Source UNESCO Global Education Dijest and UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) OECD Education at a Glance United Nations World Population Prospects International Monetary Fund Currency Pacific Exchange rate Service OANDA Currency Converter IIE Open Doors UK HESA Education New Zealand and Ministry of Education International student mobility host and source countries, numbers studying tertiary education abroad, change Tertiary education participation rates secondary and tertiary education Completion rates tertiary education expenditure on education as a % of GDP both private and government Population year olds and yrs. Current and forecast population Income current and forecast- look for changes to PPP Compare exchange rates across destination markets and source markets International student enrolments in US International student enrolments in UK international students in NZ

69 Monitor Trends National Datasets and Sources AEI Overseas Student Data Pivot Tables AEI Research Snapshots AEI TNE Good Practice in Offshore Delivery, Country Regulatory Fact Sheets Australian Bureau of Statistics TDA Benchmarking NCVER AVETMISS English Australia DIAC Student Visa Grants DIAC General Skilled Migration Data

70 Share and Collaborate Benchmarking Best practice Shared intelligence Reduced cost of research Staff development

71 Melissa Banks THANK YOU

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