Quest for Growth Results for Q3, January-March 2003

Transcription

1 Quest for Growth Results for Q3, January-March

2 Jan Keuppens joins Quest Management Investment Manager Quoted Portfolio of Quest for Growth Former technology analyst with AXA Investment Managers, London. Previously portfolio manager European equities, AXA Investment Managers, The Hague, Netherlands. Graduated from the K.U.Leuven, Applied Economics 2

3 Valuation QUEST FOR GROWTH Market Price Net asset value/share 31/03/ /03/ /12/ /06/2002 share: 3.96 euro 7.78 euro 8.39 euro euro warrant: 0.34 euro 3

4 Performance of QfG NAV compared to Market Indices To March 31, % 0.0% Since December 31st 2002 Fiscal Year-to-date -5.0% -10.0% -3.5% -7.3% -6.3%-7.1% -5.9% QfG Net Asset Value -15.0% -20.0% -14.0% -13.2% -16.7% Nasdaq Europe -25.0% Techmark (in euro) UKBIO (in Euro) Nasdaq (in Euro) New Markets % -35.0% -40.0% -45.0% -30.2% -32.0% -36.3% -40.9% -42.0%-41.6% CSET 4

5 QfG shares compared to the markets 3 years to March 31,

6 Q3, 2003 Performance overview per sector 8,8 8,6 8,4 8,2 8,0 7,8 7,6 7,4 7,2 7,0 Value 31/12/2002 IT Services & Int ernet Electro's Software Semi's Telecom Biotech Nasdaq &Basket puts Other (impact of USD, Unquoted,... Value 31/03/2003 6

7 Currency impact in Q3 was hard 1m Euros Quest for growth by Currency in Euro CHF USD 3.80% 24.94% DKK 0.67% NOK 2.34% GBP 18.89% EUR 49.36% 7

8 Quoted investments were in line with the European quoted indices Performance of the Quoted portfolio of Quest for Growth 8 30-Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep-00 30/11/00 31-Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-03 TOTAL Quoted (excl Quoted Unquoted) TOTAL Quoted (excl Quoted Unquoted and put options) Nasdaq (in Euro) Nasdaq Europe New Markets 50 Techmark CSFB Europe Technology

9 Sources of Profit/Loss January-March 2003 (Q3, 2003) In Euro Million FY 2002 H Q = 9m 2003 Quoted Unquoted (9.76) (2.40) + (0.65) = (3.05) Unquoted (7.93) (2.28) + (0.25) = (2.53) VC Funds (1.36) (1.42) + (0.07) = (1.49) Total Unquoted (19.05) (6.10) + (0.97) = (7.07) Quoted Portfolio (27.15) (7.58) + (1.38) = (8.96) Unassigned gains/(losses) (3.10) (1.29) + (0.98) = (2.27) Quest for Growth (49.30) (14.97) + (3.33) = (18.29) Numbers may not add up due to rounding adjustments 9

10 Income Statement March 31, months to 9 months to 3 months to 9 months to March 31 st, 2003 March 31 st, 2003 March 31 st, 2002 March 31 st, 2002 Operating income and charges Gross operating margin (2.321,490) (15,840,708) (12,209,822) (33,303,516) Depreciation and other amounts written off (52,161) (147,433) (45,550) (136,651) Other operating charges (670,211) (2,004,298) (658,133) (2,039,872) Operating profit / loss (3,043,862) (18,001,439) (12,913,505) (35,480,039) Financial income 101, , , ,570 Financial charges (382,922) (1,163,487) (505,510) (1,397,059) Profit / loss on ordinary activities before taxes (3,325,228) (18,291,102) (13,212,082) (36,097,528) Income taxes 0 0 Profit / loss for the period (3.325,228) (18,291,102) (13,212,082) (36,097,528) 10

11 Balance sheet March 31, Assets March 31 st December 31 st Liabilities March 31 st December 31 st Fixed Assets 25,932,727 27,600,567 Capital and Reserves 42,131,213 45,456,441 Formation expenses 606, ,039 Issued capital 117,227, ,227,567 Financial assets 25,325,849 26,941,528 Profit / Loss carried forward (56,805,252) (56,805,252) Result of the period (18,291,102) (14,965,874) Current Assets 16,310,849 19,634,933 Creditors 112,363 1,779,059 Financial instruments 0 1,886,103 Amounts payable within 1 year 60, ,713 Amounts receivable within one year 17 39,882 Financial debts 0 Term Deposits 14,598,752 17,203,815 Trade debts 0 Cash at Bank and in hand 130, ,739 Taxes due 0 Other amounts payable 60, ,713 Deferred charges and accrued income 1,581, ,394 Accrued charges and deferred income 51,571 1,669,346 Total Assets 42,243,576 47,235,500 Total Liabilities 42,243,576 47,235,500 11

12 Off Balance Commitments March 31, 2003 Commitment Currency Commitment in Schroder Ventures International Life Sciences Fund II 99,999 $ 91,784 NetFund Europe 270, ,483 Ventech Capital 2 1,100,000 1,100,000 12

13 QfG s fund structure 31/03/03 Target Quoted Companies 50.7% 65% Unquoted Companies 4.2% 20% Venture Funds (inc. commitments of 3.4%) 10.5% 15% Cash (and equivalents) 34.6% 0-15% 13

14 QfG fund structure 14 Euro (m) Oct-98 Dec-98 Feb-99 Apr-99 Jun-99 Aug-99 Oct-99 Dec-99 Feb-00 Apr-00 Jun-00 Aug-00 Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Cash Unquoted Commitments Quoted

15 Distribution of the portfolio by sector March 31, 2003 (Total portfolio) Cash (incl. Other net assets and commitments) 39.9% Electronics and Hardware 6.6% IT Services 3.9% Pharma & Biotech 12.7% v Telecom &Equipment 10.0% Software 10.2% Semiconductors & Equipment 16.7% 15

16 Sector split (invested part quoted*) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% jun/00 sep/00 dec/00 mrt/01 jun/01 sep/01 dec/01 mrt/02 jun/02 sep/02 dec/02 mrt/03 Electr. & Hardware IT Services Pharma & Biotech Semiconduct. & Equipment Software Telecom & Equipment * Including Quoted Unquoted 16

17 Distribution of the portfolio by country March 31, 2003 (Invested part of the portfolio) Belgium Denmark US 2,89% 1,12% 16,11% France United Kingdom 19,20% 16,00% Germany Switzerland 16,59% 6,30% Spain 3,76% Portugal 3,06% Norway 3,90% Netherlands 11,08% 17

18 Unquoted investments QfG is targeting investments in late stage private companies in the technology and life sciences areas. QfG s targeted investment size is EUR 1-2 million with an exit horizon of 3 years. Period from 1st December 1998 to March unquoted investments made 24 million invested in total 1.3 million average unit of investment 4 venture funds investments 6 investments gone public 9 direct investments still unquoted 18

19 Unquoted investments No new investments in private companies were made during the last quarter. QfG s dealflow is steady, but so far no appropriate investment opportunities have been identified that fit our investment criteria Number of incoming files per month mrt/02 apr/02 mei/02 jun/02 jul/02 aug/02 sep/02 okt/02 nov/02 dec/02 jan/03 feb/03 mrt/03 19

20 Unquoted Investments changes during the quarter Direct investments valuation in EUR 31/12/ /03/2003 Change Comments Nasdaq Europe Further fundraising will be difficult and highly dilutive for existing investors. Galileo Based on latest funding conditions. Fund investments valuation in EUR 31/12/2002 Capital call 31/03/2003 Changes Kiwi I Ventura Services (5.281,81) NetFund Europe (10.364,00) Schroders LSF II ( ,83) Ventech Capital ,00 Note: direct investments: EVCA valuation; Fund investments: valuation based on the respective fund management s estimates 20

21 Economic Environment 21

22 OECD Composite Leading Economic Indicators turning down? 4 th April

23 Oil prices fell sharply when Iraq war ended 23

24 Manufacturing and Services Indices declining, while prices paid increase Expans ion US Institute of Supply Management Indices ISM Index Prices Paid Contraction Manufacturing Services Prices Paid Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Source: ISM, 3rd April

25 Weak Consumer Confidence may bounce back now that the Iraq war is won US Consumer Confidence Index 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Consumer Confidence Y-Y Change (RHS) -40% -50% Oct-94 Apr-95 Oct-95 Apr-96 Oct-96 Apr-97 Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Oct-99 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Source: The Conference Board, March

26 German business conditions remain terrible, with no expectation of improvement 26

27 Semiconductor sales started to decline in Q1, especially in Asia and Japan. What impact will SARS have? 7,000,000 6,000,000 Monthly Semiconductor Sales - 3 months moving average ($m) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Americas Europe Japan Asia Pacific Worldwide (RHS) 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 2,000,000 6,000,000 1,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Source: Semiconductor Industry Association March

28 US Computer and Electronic Products sales have remained flat for the past year 40,000 US Computers & Electronic Products monthly sales, & inventories , ,000 25, , , Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 $m Inventory Months Shipments Inventory Months Source: US Bureau of Census, March 2003

29 Are current tech valuations justified? 29

30 US Bond yields are at a 20 year low Year US Treasury Yields Year Yield 1 Yr MAV 5 Yr MAV Fed Funds Target 30

31 Near Term Risks SARS Intel s revenues are 39% Asia, 29% US, 24% Europe and 8% Japan; China is the world s second largest mobile phone market Pension funding Many pension funds still assume >9% returns Valuations Strong earnings growth is needed to justify current valuations 31

32 Longer Term Opportunities Bond cycle peaking will drive cash to other assets We are at the peak of a 20 years bull market for government bonds Replacement cycle for PCs and mobile phones will be driven by image and video applications USB 2.0/wireless LAN/image applications need new interfaces and more storage as well as faster processors Some smaller companies are trading below cash or break-up value Will attract vulture funds 32

33 Thank you for your attention! 33