Natural Gas / Electricity and the Industrial Sector. The Dismantling of US Manufacturing

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1 Natural Gas / Electricity and the Industrial Sector The Dismantling of US Manufacturing Paul Cicio President Industrial Energy Consumers of America August, 2007

2 Who Are Energy Price Sensitive Industries? Building Block Industries Chemicals Plastics Fertilizer Glass / ceramics Brick Steel Aluminum Pulp and Paper Cement Food Processing Convert to Commercial & Consumer Products Food Production Detergents Automobiles Computers Construction Medical Supplies Paint Pharmaceuticals Cosmetics Telecommunication

3 Why Did These Industries Locate In The United States? Access to the customers, quality of workforce, stability of government, reliable and globally competitive energy Resulted in long-term investment in the U.S. Only one has changed significantly natural gas and electricity costs.

4 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Natural Gas Price History (average annual wholesale prices / year ) Natural Gas Wellhead Price $/MSCF

5 Impact of High Natural Gas and Electricity Prices Major reason for loss of 3.1 million high paying manufacturing jobs (18%) since year 2000 Continued dismantling of manufacturing Increased trade deficit via imports of manufactured goods / Balance of payments

6 When Plants Move Over Seas, They Often Take Their Customers With Them Example Feedstock Natural Gas Crude Related Ethylene Cracker Ethylene Propylene Plastic Pellets Chemicals Fabricators: Computers Telephones Auto Bumpers Appliances Chemical Processors: Detergents Fertilizer Paint Cosmetics Moving the Ethylene Cracker offshore increases the potential for all downstream industries to move also. Retail Consumer

7 World Natural Gas Costs $U.S./MMBtu (wholesale prices) Where will manufacturing go? Russia $0.80 U. S. $6.10+ Trinidad Venezuela $1.60 $0.70 W. Europe ~$5.25 N. Africa $0.80 Ukraine $1.50 China $4.05 Middle East $0.60 Indonesia $2.70 Argentina $1.10

8 Natural Gas Crisis - What Are The Issues? The US price of natural gas has, on average been the highest in the world since Consumers paid $76 Billion more in 2006 versus 2000 for natural gas and and $65 billion more for electricity. Manufacturing is the most price sensitive sector. Higher prices mean loss of competitiveness plant shutdowns.

9 Natural Gas Crisis - What Are The Issues? Natural gas demand by the power sector is driving up the price for all consumers. Natural gas demand by power sector is up 19 % since EIA forecasts continued higher demand, even without climate mandates. Electric utilities have alternatives such as coal, nuclear and renewable energy

10 Natural Gas Crisis - What Are The Issues? Climate policy must not result in electric utility fuel switching from coal to natural gas. All consumers will suffer. Climate policy must not subsidize imports of energy intensive products. The real solution to reducing GHG emissions is not caps but increasing the supply of low carbon intensive energy.

11 Climate Cap & Trade Policy Caps do not remove the government, market or technology barriers to increased supply of low carbon intensive energy. Does not recognize that energy markets are not free markets but constrained by government barriers. Does not recognize that other countries will not play fair. Will subsidize their energy and manufacturing industries.

12 3.1 Million Manufacturing Jobs Lost (Millions) Difference % Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor

13 Natural Gas Supply is Fragile There is no reserve production capacity! Inventory levels ok for now. Worry about hot summer / cold winters / hurricanes Supply is down 4 % since year 2000 despite record well completions Canadian imports down by 4.9% since 2001 New Gulf of Mexico leases no supply impact for next five years Alaska Pipeline no progress at earliest LNG producing countries creating a new cartel

14 Natural Gas Production (Volumes in Trillion Cubic Feet) Difference Dry Production % Source: EIA

15 Natural Gas Prices (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) Difference Residential % Commercial % Industrial % Electric Power % Source: EIA

16 Natural Gas Consumption by End Use (Million Cubic Feet) Difference Total Consumption % Residential % Commercial % Industrial % Electric Power % Source: EIA

17 Electricity Retail Prices (cents per kwh, including taxes) % Residential % Commercial % Industrial % Source: EIA

18 2006 Average Retail Price of Electricity by State MA: cents per kwhr 12.5 Cents per kwhr U.S. Energy Information Administration 2006 Continental U.S.

19 MA Manufacturing Employment thousands Aug 96 Jan 97 Jun 97 Nov 97 Apr 98 Sep 98 Feb 99 Jul 99 Dec 99 May 00 Oct 00 Mar 01 Aug 01 Jan 02 Jun 02 Nov 02 Apr 03 Sep 03 Feb 04 Jul 04 Dec 04 May 05 Oct 05 Mar 06 Aug 06

20

21 As Natural Gas Prices Go Up So Does the Cost of Electricity ($/MWH) Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Non-Hydro Renewable $13.54 $20.80 $49.51 $68.00 Source: EIA

22 Natural Gas Fired Power Generation Impacts on All Consumers A single 500 MW rankine cycle power plant (10,000 Btu/kwh) will use the equivalent natural gas used to fuel 842,308 homes each year.

23 Electric Power Research Institute Even though natural gas is used to produce only 20 percent of the electricity, it accounts for 55% of the electric industry s s entire fuel expense ($50B out of $91B).

24

25 Industrial Energy Consumers of America IECA is a 501 ( C ) ( 6 ) nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete in domestic and world markets. IECA does not have a PAC

26 END

27 Manufacturing Employment Directly Impacted by High Natural Gas and Electricity Costs (in Millions) Year Jobs GDP Net loss of 3.2 million jobs or 18.5% (Labor Dept)

28 Major Concern: Coal to Natural Gas Fuel Switching March 26, 2007 Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources Hearing on European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme Question by Senator Bob Corker about carbon trading and price signals: The level at which you are trading now the 16 dollars. Is that a level that really creates enough pain for people to invest in technology or is that still way below what causes people to actually make investments in technology? Answer by Garth Edwards: Shell Oil, Trading Manager Environmental Products, London, England The bulk of emission reductions in the EU are made actually by coal c to gas (natural gas) fuel switching in power stations. And any price will start to change the dispatch of power plants and and start change away from coal into gas (natural gas). It certainly is the case that prices of 16 Euros or $24, what ever, will start to change those dispatch decisions. Yes.

29 EU Cap & Trade March 26, 2007 Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources Hearing on European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme Answer by Garth Edwards: Shell Oil, Trading Manager Environmental Products, London, England The bulk of emission reductions in the EU are made actually by coal to gas (natural gas) fuel switching in power stations. And any price will start to change the dispatch of power plants and and start change away from coal into gas (natural gas). It certainly is the case that prices of 16 Euros or $24, what ever, will start to change those dispatch decisions. Yes.

30 Incremental Electricity Generation Will Greatly Increase Natural Gas Demand Even Before Considering Climate Change Legislation MM MWH Other Natural Gas Nuclear Coal Source: EIA 2007 AEO

31 Million Metric Tons of CO2 Eq. 16,500 14,500 12,500 10,500 8,500 6,500 Comparison of Climate Change Proposals in the 110th Congress Non-OECD Asia (CO2 only) US Reference Case (CO2 Only) Udall-Petri Safety Valve Bingaman $5 Phased Auction Bingaman $9 Phased Auction Udall-Petri No Safety Valve Lieberman-McCain Olver-Gilchrest Kerry-Snowe Sanders-Boxer 4,500 2, Sources: EIA (International Energy Outlook 2006, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, analysis of various bills) and legislative proposals.

32 Natural Gas and Production (Volumes in Trillion Cubic Feet) Difference Dry Production % Source: EIA

33 Wells Produced (In Thousands) Producing Wells Difference +18% Source: EIA

34 Natural Gas and Production (Volumes in Trillion Cubic Feet) Difference Dry Production % Source: EIA

35 Natural Gas Number of Producing Wells , ,040 up 34% EIA

36 OCS Gas Production Tcf Quarter Gas Outlook '98 '00 '05 '07 '10 '15 Non-Shelf Shelf

37 Gulf of Mexico Gas Reserve Adds per Well 20 Bcf/well Four-Year Running Cumulative Bcf/well Average: Bcf/well '82 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 0 per oil well per gas well Year Ending

38 Mfg ing Natural Gas Demand Destruction of 1.5 TCF or 18.5 % The US is balancing natural supply on the backs of the manufacturing jobs!! Natural Gas Demand Mfg* U.S. Total* *Trillion cubic feet (EIA)

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