INSIGHTS ON THE ROMANIAN FMCG MARKET Prepared for the Austrian Embassy

Transcription

1 INSIGHTS ON THE ROMANIAN FMCG MARKET Prepared for the Austrian Embassy Flavia Florea I Key Account Executive I GfK Consumer Panel Services May 7 th 2015 Austrian Embassy Presentation 1

2 Agenda 1 2 International scene About the Romanian consumer 2

3 No more spectacular growth in the FMCG market Descending trends [in %] 20% 12,1% 4,4% 3,3% 15% 10% 5% 0% 3,3% 2,6% -0,8% 2013 FMCG Markets are flat in W Europe / USA -5% Global W Europe USA 40% 20,9% 18,2% 11,9% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Asia Latam E Europe 11,9% 5,9% 2,5% 2013 Consumer spend more on FMCG in Asia, Latam, E-Europe Europanel 2014 powered by GfK and Kantar Worldpanel, Global and regional totals are the barometer countries in this report: France, Germany, Italy, NL, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, USA, Brazil, Mexico, China, India and Japan 3

4 The existing growth comes only as a result of price inflation Saturated markets Value growth mainly driven by Inflation 15 10% 9,6% 3,5% 5,5% 4,8% 5 0% 2,3% -0,6% -5 Global W Europe USA 20% 15,1% 13,0% 8,7% 15% 10% 5% 8,0% 6,5% 4,1% 0% Asia Latam E Europe Europanel 2014 powered by GfK and Kantar Worldpanel, Global and regional totals are the barometer countries in this report: France, Germany, Italy, NL, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, USA, Brazil, Mexico, China, India and Japan 4

5 In Romania growth is coming from volume Market is not saturated, still room for growth +2% value growth +4.5% Volume growth -1.4% Food inflation -1.4% Down Trade Source: GfK Consumer Panel Services, * 2014 vs 2013 FMCG all categories including Fresh & Home Made, **Price Inflation Food Index Eurostat 5

6 Confidence in the future returns to value before the crisis Political scene plays a very important role ian.-08 mar.-08 mai.-08 iul.-08 sep.-08 nov.-08 ian.-09 mar.-09 mai.-09 iul.-09 sep.-09 nov.-09 ian.-10 mar.-10 mai.-10 iul.-10 sep.-10 nov.-10 jan.-11 mar.-11 mai.-11 iul.-11 sep.-11 noi.-11 ian.-12 mar.-12 mai-12 jul.-12 sep.-12 nov.-12 ian.-13 mar.-13 mai.-13 jul.-13 sep.-13 nov.-13 jan.-14 mar.-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 nov. 14 Jan-15 Mar UE Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Germany -80 Source: GfK Omnibus, Consumer Confidence Barometer. The consumer confidence indicator is calculated based on answers to the questions on the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, unemployment expectations and savings, all over the next 12 months. Base: National 15+ (Ian 08 Mar 14); ~1000 respondents (all) /wave; % 6

7 Romanian spend nearly half of their budget on Food&Beverages More than triple in comparison with the Austrians Household-Budget Distribution * incl. alcoholic beverages and tobacco 7

8 Growth is coming from the Food and Home Care segments Frequency drives growth Source: GfK Consumer Panel Services I Calculation based upon FMCG all categories, Home Made is included 8

9 Modern Trade formats continue their growth Frequency is also the main driver FMCG Evolution In-home Consumption [Value Change %] JanDec-14 vs. JanDec-13 1,7 5,0-1,8 Total Country Modern Trade Traditional Trade Source: GfK Consumer Panel Services I Sample 3,000 hhs nationwide representative 9

10 Modern Trade is covering up to 54% within total expenditures Smaller formats are the winners Value share % Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Cash & Carry % Modern Trade Till Roll Modern Proximity Stores Traditional Trade Source: GfK Consumer Panel Services based on till roll 10

11 Money start to shift in-between modern retailers Modern Proximity and Discounters the gain most Traditional trade remains key source of money for Modern Trade development. Nevertheless, contrary to previous years, the interaction between modern trade formats becomes more intensive with modern proximity stores key gainers from other formats (attribute proximity). Discounters are a threat for Supermarkets & Hypermarkets. SUPERMARKETS TRADITIONAL TRADE DISCOUNTERS HYPERMARKETS MODERN PROXIMITY STORES GfK Romania I 3,000 households panel I Jan-Nov 2014 vs. Jan-Nov 2013 I Gain & Loss Analysis FMCG basket 11

12 Private labels continue with their development, covering 14% of the total value of the FMCG market Private Labels Value Share % Total FMCG Private Labels Value Share % 13.8% 2014 vs 12.4% 2013 Food 19% PL Personal Care 11% PL Home Care 9% PL Total FMCG Promo Value Share % 20% 12

13 What we learn about the consumer Consumer Confidence Index return to pre-crisis values Purchase frequency increased by 7% Growth is sustained by volume and not price absorption 20% of total FMCG value is sold in promotion For 80% of Romanians shopping is a pleasure 13

14 Top FMCG brands across Europe Austria France Germany Hungary Netherlands Romania Russia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Source: GfK Consumer Panel Services and Europanel Jan-Dec 12 14

15 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Flavia Florea Key Account Executive Consumer Panel Services 3 George Constantinescu Upground BOC Building 6 th floor District 2 T: M: Follow GfK Romania on