Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices

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1 Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices J O S E P H W. G L A U B E R U S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E M A R I O J. M I R A N D A T H E O H I O S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y

2 Futures spreads relative to harvest contract Wheat Corn 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% Jul-Sep Jul-Mar Jul-Dec Jul-May Dec-Mar Dec-May Dec-Jul

3 Soybean futures spreads relative to harvest contract % 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% Nov-Jan Nov-Mar Nov-May Nov-Jul Nov-Aug Nov-Sep 80%

4 Source: FAO Major wheat importers and exporters

5 Southern hemisphere share of global wheat supply and demand Percent Production Consumption Exports Imports Ending stocks USDA, PSD database

6 Major coarse grain importers and exporters Source: FAO

7 Southern hemisphere share of global corn supply and demand Percent Production Consumption Exports Imports Ending stocks USDA, PSD database

8 Major oilseed exporters and importers Source: FAO

9 Southern hemisphere share of global soybean supply and demand Percent Production Consumption Exports Imports Ending stocks USDA, PSD database

10 Intraseasonal Storage Model with Trade Stochastic spatial-temporal equilibrium model Two periods: spring and fall Four regions: Northern hemisphere exporters, harvest in Fall Southern hemisphere exporters, harvest in Spring ROW1: Large net importers, harvest in Fall ROW2: exogenous, harvest in Spring/Fall Trade: North => ROW South => ROW Storage: North exporters South exporters

11 Intraseasonal Storage Model with Trade Constant unit transportation and storage costs Model poses a functional nonlinear complementarity problem lacking closed-form solution Solved numerically using cubic spline collocation and nonlinear complementarity methods Use CompEcon Toolbox (Miranda & Fackler) Solved and simulated under parameterizations reflecting 1990, 2000, 2014, and 2023 market conditions

12 Effects of shifts in production on trade patterns Share of production North South ROW Share of exports North South

13 Effects of shifts in production on trade patterns Share of spring exports North South Share of fall exports North South Share of North exports Fall Spring Share of South exports Fall Spring

14 Percent of US crops exported in first half of marketing year 1976/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /13 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Soybeans 60% Wheat 55% Corn 50% 45% 40% Source: ERS based on Dept of Commerce trade data

15 1000 tons US soybean exports by month 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 5yr avg (03/04-07/08) 2008/ / / / /13 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

16 1000 tons Brazil soybean exports by month 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 5yr avg (03/04-07/08) 2008/ / /11 4,000 3, / /13 2,000 1,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

17 1000 tons Argentina soybean exports by month 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 5yr avg (03/04-07/08) 2008/ / / /12 1, /13 1, Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

18 1000 tons Global soybean exports (major exporters) 14,000 12,000 10,000 5yr avg (03/04-07/08) 2008/ / / /12 8, /13 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

19 Effects of production shifts on stocks Share of production percent North South ROW Share of spring stocks North South Share of fall stocks North South Probability of stockout percent North South

20 Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by US 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

21 Soybean stocks held by major S. hemisphere exporters Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

22 Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by major exporters 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 BZ+AR US

23 April-1998 Dec-1998 Aug-1999 April-2000 Dec-2000 Aug-2001 April-2002 Dec-2002 Aug-2003 April-2004 Dec-2004 Aug-2005 April-2006 Dec-2006 Aug-2007 April-2008 Dec-2008 Aug-2009 April-2010 Dec-2010 Aug-2011 April-2012 Dec-2012 Aug-2013 April-2014 Soybean stocks held by major exporters 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

24 April-1998 Jan-1999 Oct-1999 July-2000 April-2001 Jan-2002 Oct-2002 July-2003 April-2004 Jan-2005 Oct-2005 July-2006 April-2007 Jan-2008 Oct-2008 July-2009 April-2010 Jan-2011 Oct-2011 July-2012 April-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by major exporters 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Sep 1 Mar 1 0

25 April-1998 Jan-1999 Oct-1999 July-2000 April-2001 Jan-2002 Oct-2002 July-2003 April-2004 Jan-2005 Oct-2005 July-2006 April-2007 Jan-2008 Oct-2008 July-2009 April-2010 Jan-2011 Oct-2011 July-2012 April-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by major exporters 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Jun 1 Dec 1 0

26 Effects of production shifts on price correlations Region/period North-ROW /fall North ROW /spring South-ROW /fall South-ROW /spring North-South /fall North-South/spring

27 Jan-1980 Jul-1981 Jan-1983 Jul-1984 Jan-1986 Jul-1987 Jan-1989 Jul-1990 Jan-1992 Jul-1993 Jan-1995 Jul-1996 Jan-1998 Jul-1999 Jan-2001 Jul-2002 Jan-2004 Jul-2005 Jan-2007 Jul-2008 Jan-2010 Jul-2011 Jan-2013 Soybean prices $/tonne US FOB Gulf Brazil FOB Rio Grande

28 Jan-1990 Feb-1991 Mar-1992 Apr-1993 May-1994 Jun-1995 Jul-1996 Aug-1997 Sep-1998 Oct-1999 Nov-2000 Dec-2001 Jan-2003 Feb-2004 Mar-2005 Apr-2006 May-2007 Jun-2008 Jul-2009 Aug-2010 Sep-2011 Oct-2012 Nov-2013 US gulf price as percent of BZ soybean price 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80%

29 7/6/2001 7/6/2002 7/6/2003 7/6/2004 7/6/2005 7/6/2006 7/6/2007 7/6/2008 7/6/2009 7/6/2010 7/6/2011 7/6/2012 7/6/2013 Rotterdam soybean prices Brazil Paranagua US Gulf 100 0

30 Conclusions Model provides a number of insights that support empirical data: Shifts in soybean production from North to South has altered trade patterns Shifts in stocks from North to South Measures of market tightness (eg, stocks-to-use) must recognize 6 month cycles Price integration with exporting countries Further work: Price responsive supply (e.g., Haile et al.) Increasing yield volatility (e.g., Black Sea) Trade between exporting regions Role of China

31 outtakes

32 China soybean imports 7,000,000 6,000, avg 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Other Argentina Brazil US 1,000,000 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

33 Soybean futures spreads 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% Nov-Jan Nov-Mar Nov-May Nov-Jul Nov-Aug Nov-Sep 80%

34 Soybean futures spreads 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% Nov-Jan Nov-Mar Nov-May Nov-Jul 90%

35 Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by US 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

36 Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by US 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

37 Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan-2014 Soybean stocks held by major exporters 120, ,000 United States Brazil Argentina 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

38 Soybean stocks held by major S. hemisphere exporters Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan , ,000 Brazil Argentina 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

39 Soybean stocks held by major S. hemisphere exporters Sept-1998 May-1999 Jan-2000 Sept-2000 May-2001 Jan-2002 Sept-2002 May-2003 Jan-2004 Sept-2004 May-2005 Jan-2006 Sept-2006 May-2007 Jan-2008 Sept-2008 May-2009 Jan-2010 Sept-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Sept-2012 May-2013 Jan , ,000 Brazil Argentina 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

40 Wheat futures spreads 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% Jul-Sep Jul-Dec Jul-Mar Jul-May 95% 90%

41 Wheat futures spreads 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% Jul-Sep Jul-Dec Jul-Mar 95% 90%

42 Corn futures spreads 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% Dec-Mar Dec-May Dec-Jul Dec-Sep 85% 80%

43 Corn futures spreads 120% 115% 110% 105% Dec-Mar Dec-May Dec-Jul 100% 95%

44 Futures spreads relative to harvest contract Wheat Corn 125% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% Jul-Sep Jul-Mar Jul-Dec Jul-May Dec-Mar Dec-May Dec-Jul

45 Effects of production shifts on price volatility percent North-Fall North-Spring South-Fall South-Spring ROW-Fall ROW-Spring

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