Commodity Price Outlook & Risks

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Commodity Price Outlook & Risks"

Transcription

1 Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team January, 2 This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities as depicted from futures and options markets. Outlook. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil spot prices continued their declining trend and are now around 3 dollars. However, futures market point to a modest increase over the next year. Risks to its outlook include subdued aggregate demand growth, sustained production growth and geopolitical risks. In addition, risk off atmosphere in financial markets can pressure oil prices as it can further reduce oil demand if world growth falters. Gasoline prices are still expected to follow seasonal patterns, as they will rise through the summer and decline in the colder months. U.S. natural gas prices are still projected to rise on the coming months. Metal prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged on continued slow demand and general ample supply. Agricultural prices are expected to generally increase on weather concerns mainly related to the current El Nino event. Risks. The likelihood of per-barrel prices for WTI falling below $2 in the next months rose to 5 percent from 2 percent, and the likelihood of Brent falling below $2 increased to percent, about percentage points higher than last month. The likelihood of WTI and Brent oil prices rising above $6 decreased, signaling a downward shift in the balance of risks. The likelihood of per-mmbtu U.S. natural gas prices below $1.5 ( months forward) decreased to 2 percent, while the probability of prices rising above $3.5 increased to 9 percent from 3 percent, suggesting an upward shift in price uncertainty. For metals, the risk of copper prices falling below $1 a pound remained broadly unchanged at 2 percent, and the probability of prices increasing above $3 a pound dropped to 3 percent from 5 percent, amid weak demand, particularly from China. The probability of gold prices falling below $8 a troy ounce decreased to 4 percent from 6 percent, while the probability of an increase beyond $ increased to percent from 7 percent last month. The likelihood of per bushel corn prices below $2.5 increased to 9 percent from 4 percent, while the probability of prices increasing above $5 decreased to 5 percent from 8 percent in December. The likelihood of soybean meal prices rising above $35 a short ton remained broadly unchanged at percent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of perbushel soybean prices below $6 increased to percent from 7 percent, and the probability of an increase above $ decreased to 18 percent from 2 percent, partly reflecting high level of stocks. Contents. Fan charts (pages 2-3) show historical and forward futures prices (red line), with calculated confidence intervals of +/- 2 standard deviations (in purple/blue). Confidence intervals are derived from prices of options on January, 2. Likelihoods of spot prices rising/falling from specified price thresholds occurring at the 3-, 6-, 9- and -month forward (or closest available) horizons for each commodity are shown in tabular form (pages 4-5). In addition to price thresholds, the probability of each commodity spot price rising/falling by a certain percentage is shown (pages 6-7). Relevant contract specifications for each commodity are also shown (page 8). 1

2 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil (U.S. dollars a barrel) (U.S. dollars a barrel) Natural Gas Gasoline (U.S. dollars a MMBtu) 8 (U.S. cents a gallon) Gold Copper (U.S. cents a pound) (U.S. dollars a troy ounce)

3 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks (concluded) Coffee Corn (U.S. cents a bushel) 9 (U.S. cents a pound) Rough Rice Wheat (U.S. cents a hundredweight) 2 (U.S. cents a bushel) Soybean Meal Soybeans (U.S. cents a bushel) 19 (U.S. dollars a short ton)

4 WTI Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) s s < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > U.S. Natural Gas (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars an MMBtu) s s < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Copper (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) s -based s Brent Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) Gasoline (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a gallon) Gold (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a troy ounce) s < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >

5 -based s (concluded) Corn (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s s < < < < < < > < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rough Rice (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a hundredweight) s s < < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > Soybeans (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s Coffee (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) Wheat (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) Soybean Meal (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a short ton) s < <.... < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >.... 5

6 -based Probabilities of Changes (in percent) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WTI Crude Oil U.S. Natural Gas Copper Brent Crude Oil Gasoline % % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... Gold 6

7 -based Probabilities of Changes (concluded) (in percent) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... +%.... Corn Rough Rice Soybeans Coffee Wheat Soybean Meal % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

8 Commodity Derivative Contract Specifications Commodity Contract Physical Characteristics Contract Size Pricing Unit Months Traded Light sweet crude oil 1, barrels U.S. dollars per barrel Brent crude oil ICE Europe One crude oil futures contract of 1, barrels Consecutive months up to and including February 22 WTI crude oil New York Light sweet crude oil 1, barrels U.S. dollars per barrel One crude oil futures contract of 1, barrels Consecutive months are listed for the current year and the next five years; in addition, the Jun and Dec contract months are listed beyond the sixth year. Natural Gas New York Natural gas delivered at Henry Hub, LA, MMBtu U.S. dollars per MMBtu One natural gas futures contract of, MMBtu Consecutive months for the current year plus the next twelve full calendar years. Gasoline Gold New York New York Harbor RBOB 42, gallons U.S. cents per gallon Gold (a minimum of 995 fineness) One gasoline futures contract of 42, gallons troy ounces One COMEX Gold futures contract U.S. dollars per troy ounce Consecutive months for 36 months Current calendar month; the next two calendar months; any Feb, Apr, Aug, and Oct falling within a 23-month period; and any Jun and Dec falling within a 72-month period beginning with the current month. Corn Coffee Rough rice ICE Yellow corn grade #2 5, bushels (7 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Arabica coffee from 19 countries of origin U.S. #2 long grain rough rice with a total milling yield of 65%+ One corn futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels 37,5 lbs U.S. cents per pound One coffee futures contract (of a specified month) of 37,5 lbs 2, hundredweights (CWT) One rough rice futures contract of 2, hundredweights (CWT) U.S. cents per hundredweight Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Wheat Soybean meal #2 soft red winter wheat 5, bushels (6 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Meal with minimum protein of 48% One Wheat futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels short tons U.S. dollars per ton One soybean meal futures contract (of a specified month) of short tons Mar, May, July, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Soybeans Yellow soybean grade #2 5, bushels (6 MT) U.S. cents per bushel One soybean futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Sources: Board of Trade, ICE, Bloomberg, L.P. 8

Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options

Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options commodity products Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options The global benchmark products you already trade. Now with the power of CME Group. Overview Grains and Oilseeds are renewable resources with continuously

More information

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In

More information

New Era Marketing 2015

New Era Marketing 2015 Know how. Know now. New Era Marketing 2015 It s Not A Game Anymore Using Seasonal Trends to improve returns University of Nebraska Lincoln Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now. The image cannot be displayed.

More information

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR RBC commodity price index January 1994 = 0 Index excluding energy product prices January 1994 = 240 210 1 Energy products sub-index January 1994 = RBC s commodity price index is a Fisher chain-weighted

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network

More information

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report July 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: After an upward move in mid-june, crude oil prices retreated close to previous levels. The North Sea Brent front

More information

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr USDA didn t do much to help the corn market in its May 10 reports other than give soybeans a big lift. That could

More information

CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT

CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT 1/15/2015 DENOTES FALLING PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER DENOTES FLAT PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER DENOTES RISING PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER CONNECTICUT RETAIL

More information

The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump

The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump In 2007, what goes up, does not necessarily come down... May 3, 2007 The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump Prepared by: Tim Hamilton Petroleum Industry Consultant

More information

Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low

Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low The coffee market slumped further in September, following a slight rally in August, with the weakness of the real and peso again proving the most influential

More information

State Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005

State Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005 Commonwealth of Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources State Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005 May 2005 Mitt Romney Governor Kerry Healey Lt. Governor Beth Lindstrom Director,

More information

Agricultural Commodity Metric Conversion Guide

Agricultural Commodity Metric Conversion Guide Agricultural Products Agricultural Commodity Metric Conversion Guide As the world s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (cmegroup.com) is where the world comes to manage risk. CME

More information

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report February 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $34.46/b on February 4 $2.76 per barrel (b) below

More information

Commodity Futures and Options

Commodity Futures and Options Understanding Commodity Futures and Options for Producers of Livestock and Livestock Products CIS 1100 The Authors Larry D. Makus, C. Wilson Gray and Neil R. Rimbey* Introduction Risk associated with an

More information

Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin

Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin http://nationalhogfarmer.com/weekly-preview/1004-corn-controversies-hog-market http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/sb10001424052970203752604576641561657796544

More information

Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University

Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University Buying weaned pigs, corn, and soybean meal and selling hogs at discrete times throughout the year exposes wean to

More information

Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138. Exhibit 8

Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138. Exhibit 8 Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138 Exhibit 8 Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 2 of 138 Domain Name: CELLULARVERISON.COM Updated Date: 12-dec-2007

More information

What drives crude oil prices?

What drives crude oil prices? What drives crude oil prices? An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

Causes and Consequences of the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014

Causes and Consequences of the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 Causes and Consequences of the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 Christiane Baumeister Lutz Kilian University of Notre Dame University of Michigan CEPR Brent Price of Crude Oil in 2013 and 2014

More information

Analysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period

Analysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period Analysis One Code Desc Transaction Amount Fiscal Period 57.63 Oct-12 12.13 Oct-12-38.90 Oct-12-773.00 Oct-12-800.00 Oct-12-187.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-110.00 Oct-12-1115.25 Oct-12-71.00 Oct-12-41.00

More information

An Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices at the Henry Hub

An Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices at the Henry Hub An Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices at the Henry Hub This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three

More information

Grain Marketing 101. University of Maryland Extension

Grain Marketing 101. University of Maryland Extension Grain Marketing 101 Jenny Rhodes Shannon Dill John Hall Extension Educators, Agriculture & Natural Resources Marketing terminology CBOT futures Basis Contracts Forward Contract Hedge to Arrive Basis Contract

More information

Chapter 6. Commodity Forwards and Futures. Question 6.1. Question 6.2

Chapter 6. Commodity Forwards and Futures. Question 6.1. Question 6.2 Chapter 6 Commodity Forwards and Futures Question 6.1 The spot price of a widget is $70.00. With a continuously compounded annual risk-free rate of 5%, we can calculate the annualized lease rates according

More information

What does the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index track?

What does the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index track? Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index FAQ What does the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index track? The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is an index tracking the performance of a weighted group of exchange-traded futures

More information

AOBA Utility Committee

AOBA Utility Committee AOBA Utility Committee Energy Markets in Tailspin Major Economic Recession Continues to Pull Energy Prices Downward Where Will It End? Presented By Bruce R. Oliver President, Revilo Hill Associates, Inc.

More information

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014 Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

Market Briefing: Commodity Prices

Market Briefing: Commodity Prices Market Briefing: Commodity Prices February 9, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of

More information

Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03

Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Annual Report 2002-03 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Notwithstanding the state of the world economy, characterised by sluggish growth in 2002, the world crude

More information

Coffee prices fall but Brazilian production estimated lower

Coffee prices fall but Brazilian production estimated lower Coffee prices fall but production estimated lower Coffee prices continued their decline as speculation over the current 2015/16 crop suggests that the market has no immediate supply concerns. Indeed, one

More information

2014 EXPIRATION CALENDAR PRODUCTS

2014 EXPIRATION CALENDAR PRODUCTS 204 EXPIRATION CALENDAR PRODUCTS As the world s largest and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk. In 2008, NYMEX became part of CME Group. Together, we

More information

Moove Over: Will New Government-Sponsored Dairy Margin Insurance Crowd Out Private Market Risk Management Tools?

Moove Over: Will New Government-Sponsored Dairy Margin Insurance Crowd Out Private Market Risk Management Tools? Moove Over: Will New Government-Sponsored Dairy Margin Insurance Crowd Out Private Market Risk Management Tools? Christopher A. Wolf, Marin Bozic, John Newton, and Cameron S. Thraen AAEA Crop Insurance

More information

commodities beta? July / August 2012

commodities beta? July / August 2012 commodities beta? July / August 2012 Commodities Sectors And The Business Cycle Geetesh Bhardwaj and Adam Dunsby Commodities In A Portfolio Sal Gilbertie Keeping Current With Commodities Featuring Jim

More information

Oil Markets into 2006. Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 2006

Oil Markets into 2006. Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 2006 Oil Markets into 26 Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 26 Outline Oil and energy today How did we get to here? Prospects for 26 Into the medium

More information

Chicago Board Of Trade GRAINS. Soybean Futures Cents & quarter-cents/bu. 1/4cent/bu (12.50/contract) Sep=U, Nov=X, Jan=F, Mar=H, May=K, Jul=N, Aug=Q

Chicago Board Of Trade GRAINS. Soybean Futures Cents & quarter-cents/bu. 1/4cent/bu (12.50/contract) Sep=U, Nov=X, Jan=F, Mar=H, May=K, Jul=N, Aug=Q OAK PRICING Iowa Grain Company has made every effort to ensure the accuracy o information, but neither the firm, nor its officers, employees, or agents shall be liable to any person for any losses, damages,

More information

CENTERPOINT ENERGY TEXARKANA SERVICE AREA GAS SUPPLY RATE (GSR) JULY 2015. Small Commercial Service (SCS-1) GSR

CENTERPOINT ENERGY TEXARKANA SERVICE AREA GAS SUPPLY RATE (GSR) JULY 2015. Small Commercial Service (SCS-1) GSR JULY 2015 Area (RS-1) GSR GSR (LCS-1) Texarkana Incorporated July-15 $0.50690/Ccf $0.45450/Ccf $0.00000/Ccf $2.85090/MMBtu $17.52070/MMBtu Texarkana Unincorporated July-15 $0.56370/Ccf $0.26110/Ccf $1.66900/Ccf

More information

Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook. Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.

Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook. Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl. Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.edu Zhengfei Guan Assistant Professor Gulf Coast Research and

More information

Enhanced Vessel Traffic Management System Booking Slots Available and Vessels Booked per Day From 12-JAN-2016 To 30-JUN-2017

Enhanced Vessel Traffic Management System Booking Slots Available and Vessels Booked per Day From 12-JAN-2016 To 30-JUN-2017 From -JAN- To -JUN- -JAN- VIRP Page Period Period Period -JAN- 8 -JAN- 8 9 -JAN- 8 8 -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- 8-JAN- 9-JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- 8-JAN- 9-JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -FEB- : days

More information

July 22, 2010 Page 1 of 5

July 22, 2010 Page 1 of 5 Page 1 of 5 On November 30, 2009, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Variable Storage Rates (VSR) in CBOT Wheat futures contracts beginning with the July 2010 contract expiration.

More information

KCBOT: The Kansas City Board of Trade was formally chartered in 1876 and trades hard red winter

KCBOT: The Kansas City Board of Trade was formally chartered in 1876 and trades hard red winter Section I Introduction to Futures and Options Markets Learning objectives To know major agricultural futures exchanges To see the types of commodities traded To understand common characteristics of futures

More information

COPPER GOLD PLATINUM SILVER PALLADIUM

COPPER GOLD PLATINUM SILVER PALLADIUM SPECIFICATIONS FUTURES FUTURES Trading system code COPP GOLD PLAT SILV PALL Trading hours 08h30 to 17h00 South African time. Admin period from 17h00 to 17h15. (Monday to Friday except South African National

More information

The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report January 31, 2014

The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report January 31, 2014 ISSN 1948-2388 The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report This report is a summary of the latest fuel prices and other oil industry key statistics. In addition, this report provides the latest trends in vehicle

More information

2009 Ryder Scott Reserves Conference Evaluation Challenges in a Changing World First of the Month Prices.How hard can that be to get right?

2009 Ryder Scott Reserves Conference Evaluation Challenges in a Changing World First of the Month Prices.How hard can that be to get right? 2009 Ryder Scott Reserves Conference Evaluation Challenges in a Changing World First of the Month Prices.How hard can that be to get right? Fred W. Ziehe Managing Sr. VP, Ryder Scott Company DISCLAIMER

More information

US EXCHANGE TRADING HOURS (All times are Chicago Time)

US EXCHANGE TRADING HOURS (All times are Chicago Time) US EXCHANGE TRADING HOURS (All times are Chicago Time) CME GROUP INC. CBOT (www.cmegroup.com) Open Outcry -Options Only GLOBEX Agriculturals (halts 7:45am-8:30am during the wk) Corn 8:30am to 1:15pm Sun-Fri

More information

IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison

IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison Richard Newell, Director, Duke University Energy Initiative Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment Sixth IEA-IEF-OPEC

More information

CFD Product Guide. www.myfxchoice.com

CFD Product Guide. www.myfxchoice.com CFD Product Guide www.myfxchoice.com Contents Notice Risk Warning 1. Trading Hours 2. Contract Size \ Contract value 3. Tick size \Tick value\spread value 4. Margin Requirements 5. Overnight Rollover Cash

More information

Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance

Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: On-Line Workshop Outline A series of 12 lectures with slides Accompanying

More information

Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016

Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Oil & Gas Market Outlook 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Challenging Market Environment Concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce global oil and natural

More information

Direct Energy Business Monthly Webinar. Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016

Direct Energy Business Monthly Webinar. Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016 Direct Energy Business Monthly Webinar Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016 Webinar Agenda Tim Bigler, Sr. Market Strategist Commodity Market Update Beau Gjerdingen, Meteorologist Spring weather

More information

Energy Savings from Business Energy Feedback

Energy Savings from Business Energy Feedback Energy Savings from Business Energy Feedback Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference 2015 October 21, 2015 Jim Stewart, Ph.D. INTRODUCTION 2 Study Background Xcel Energy runs the Business Energy

More information

PREPARED FOR THE OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY

PREPARED FOR THE OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY NATURAL GAS AND ENERGY PRICE VOLATILITY PREPARED FOR THE OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY BY THE 400 NORTH CAPITOL STREET, NW WASHINGTON, DC 20001 PRINCIPAL AUTHORS: BRUCE HENNING, MICHAEL SLOAN, MARIA DE

More information

FCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016

FCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016 CORN: CH16 made new contract lows but were unable to hold below unchanged into the close. Weekly ethanol production marginally higher this week, up 4 thbpd to 996. Ethanol stocks built again reaching 21099

More information

Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets

Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets Research Department, Commodities Team * Global Economy & Commodity Markets Figure 1: IMF Commodity Price Indices (05 = ) 2 1 1 All Commodity Price Index Non-Fuel Commodity

More information

Economic Data. International Market Recap. September 21, 2015. September 18, 2015

Economic Data. International Market Recap. September 21, 2015. September 18, 2015 Economic Data September 18, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Minutes EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 22.6B 21.3B 25.4B CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% CAD CPI Y/Y Aug

More information

Announcement of Class and Component Prices United States Department of Agriculture

Announcement of Class and Component Prices United States Department of Agriculture Announcement of Class and Component s United States Department of Agriculture Dairy Programs Market Information Branch CLS-0116 January 2016 Highlights Class II was $14.19 per hundredweight for the month

More information

COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION. 17 CFR Parts 1, 15, 17, 19, 32, 37, 38, 140, and 150

COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION. 17 CFR Parts 1, 15, 17, 19, 32, 37, 38, 140, and 150 6351-01-P COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Parts 1, 15, 17, 19, 32, 37, 38, 140, and 150 RIN 3038 AD99; 3038-AD82 Position Limits for Derivatives and Aggregation of Positions AGENCY: Commodity

More information

IntercontinentalExchange. Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum February 7, 2008

IntercontinentalExchange. Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum February 7, 2008 IntercontinentalExchange Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum February 7, 2008 Forward-Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements made pursuant

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 26, 2016 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016 Released: Friday, February 26, 2016 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

List of traded commodities - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of traded commodities - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Page 1 of 5 List of traded commodities From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Contents 1 Agricultural (grains, and food and fiber) 2 Livestock and meat 3 Energy 4 Precious metals 5 Industrial metals 6 Rare

More information

Example of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices

Example of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices Example of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices Firm A expects to consume 5,, litres of diesel fuel over the next 12 months. Fuel represents a large expense for the firm, and volatile prices

More information

Gas Price Expectations Are Changing Consumer Spending Behavior

Gas Price Expectations Are Changing Consumer Spending Behavior Gas Price Expectations Are Changing Consumer Spending Behavior MARCH 2015 Consumers expect gas prices to increase in the next three months. Stay the Same Decrease 19% 11% 70% Increase Most consumers are

More information

MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options

MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options 07 Crop Outlook and Int l Durum Forum Minot, ND 1 Thank you very much for having me here. I would like to acquaint you with a new set of risk management tools.

More information

1 CASH SETTLED AGRICULTURAL CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS - FUTURES

1 CASH SETTLED AGRICULTURAL CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS - FUTURES 1 CASH SETTLED AGRICULTURAL CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS - FUTURES FUTURES CONTRACT CHICAGO CORN CHICAGO WHEAT KCBT HARD RED Trading system code CORN REDW KANS BEAN MEAL OILS Trading Hours 09h00 12h00 South

More information

Using Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle (AEC 2013-01) February 2013

Using Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle (AEC 2013-01) February 2013 Using Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle (AEC 2013-01) February 2013 Kenny Burdine 1 Introduction: Price volatility in feeder cattle markets has greatly increased since 2007. While

More information

Coffee Year 2014-15 Futures Trading Analysis

Coffee Year 2014-15 Futures Trading Analysis Lower coffee exports lend support to Robusta prices The coffee market rallied slightly in June, led in most part by a recovery in Robusta prices. For the sixth month in a row exports were lower than last

More information

Producer Hedging the Production of Heavy Crude Oil

Producer Hedging the Production of Heavy Crude Oil Producer Hedging the Production of Heavy Crude Oil An oil producer sells its future production of heavy crude oil to a customer at an agreed-upon price today. The producer seeks to lock-in this price to

More information

Gold Recap. Spread JAN6 FEB6 APR6 JUN6 DEC5 1.3 1.3 0.6-0.3 JAN6 - -0.7-1.6 FEB6-0.7-1.6 APR6-0.9. OI Gold. Chg.

Gold Recap. Spread JAN6 FEB6 APR6 JUN6 DEC5 1.3 1.3 0.6-0.3 JAN6 - -0.7-1.6 FEB6-0.7-1.6 APR6-0.9. OI Gold. Chg. Economic Data December 21, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Oct 1.00% 0.80% -0.20% JPY BoJ Monthly Report EUR German PPI M/M Nov -0.20% -0.20% -0.40%

More information

CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS FUTURES FUTURES CONTRACT BRENT CRUDE OIL WTI CRUDE OIL. Trading system code BRNT WTIO

CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS FUTURES FUTURES CONTRACT BRENT CRUDE OIL WTI CRUDE OIL. Trading system code BRNT WTIO CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS FUTURES FUTURES CONTRACT BRENT CRUDE OIL WTI CRUDE OIL Trading system code BRNT WTIO Trading Hours 08h30 to 17h00 South African time. Admin period from 17h00 to 17h15. (Monday to

More information

2012 Japan Broiler Market Situation Update and 2013 Outlook

2012 Japan Broiler Market Situation Update and 2013 Outlook THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report

More information

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3

More information

October Commodity Price Changes (percent from previous month)

October Commodity Price Changes (percent from previous month) Commodity Market Monthly 1 Research Department, Commodities Team* November 14, 214 www.imf.org/commodities Commodity prices fell by 6.4 percent in October, with declines in most main indices, particularly

More information

Consumer Price Developments in December 2015

Consumer Price Developments in December 2015 sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in December 2015 CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% in December, compared to -0.8%

More information

Oil and Gas U.S. Industry Outlook

Oil and Gas U.S. Industry Outlook Oil and Gas U.S. Industry Outlook VERSION 01 YEAR 13 OUTLOOK: Positive fundamentals & outlook www.eulerhermes.us Key points WTI Crude is expected to continue to converge to Brent crude prices, narrowing

More information

Using the Futures Market to Predict Prices and Calculate Breakevens for Feeder Cattle Kenny Burdine 1 and Greg Halich 2

Using the Futures Market to Predict Prices and Calculate Breakevens for Feeder Cattle Kenny Burdine 1 and Greg Halich 2 Introduction Using the Futures Market to Predict Prices and Calculate Breakevens for Feeder Cattle Kenny Burdine 1 and Greg Halich 2 AEC 2013-09 August 2013 Futures markets are used by cattle producers

More information

Overview: Past, Present and Future

Overview: Past, Present and Future Overview: Past, Present and Future Founded in 1957, the Reuters CRB Index has a long history as the most widely followed Index of commodities futures. Since 1961, there have been 9 previous revisions to

More information

Weekly Economic Highlights

Weekly Economic Highlights Vol. 17 No. 41 Weekly Economic Highlights Table of Contents 1. INTEREST RATES... 1 2. CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT ACTIVITY... 2 4. INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS. 4 5. EQUITY MARKETS... 6 Week

More information

AGRICULTURE UNDERSTANDING BASIS

AGRICULTURE UNDERSTANDING BASIS AGRICULTURE UNDERSTANDING BASIS General ContentsInformation Series Understanding Basis..................................... 2 Keeping History........................................ 6 Putting Basis to

More information

Commodity Market Monthly

Commodity Market Monthly Commodity Market Monthly 1 Research Department, Commodities Team* February 11, 215 www.imf.org/commodities Commodity prices fell by 12. percent in January, mainly the result of a sharp decline in oil prices.

More information

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS. Introduction to Hedging with Dairy Futures and Options

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS. Introduction to Hedging with Dairy Futures and Options AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Introduction to Hedging with Dairy Futures and Options TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. WHAT ARE DAIRY FUTURES AND OPTIONS? 3 3. FINANCIAL INTEGRITY OF THE DAIRY FUTURES MARKET

More information

DGCX Contract Specifications

DGCX Contract Specifications DGCX Contract Specifications Products Gold futures Options on Gold Futures Silver Futures Currencies: Indian Rupee - US Dollar FX Futures Contract Options on Indian Rupee Futures Euro - US Dollar FX Futures

More information

Consumer Price Developments in January 2016

Consumer Price Developments in January 2016 sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in January 2016 CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January CPI-All Items inflation was -0.6% in January, unchanged from that in December.

More information

Economic Update as of June 30, 2016

Economic Update as of June 30, 2016 MACRO Report: Review of Wyoming s Economy Economic Update as of June 30, The MACRO Report is a quarterly publication comprised of charts focusing on energy, employment, state revenues, and other indicators

More information

Basis The Cash Futures Relationship

Basis The Cash Futures Relationship Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Basis The Cash Futures Relationship By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: Fact Sheets Knowing and Managing

More information

2013 World Grain Outlook

2013 World Grain Outlook 2013 World Grain Outlook Presented by: John Roach February 18, 2013 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully

More information

Natural Gas Hub Development and the Asian LNG Market

Natural Gas Hub Development and the Asian LNG Market Natural Gas Hub Development and the Asian LNG Market Plenary Session 3, Structure of Asian Markets for Energy Commodities Bradford G. Leach Principal, Energy Advisory Services 5th IAEE Asian Conference

More information

Consumer Price Developments in May 2016

Consumer Price Developments in May 2016 sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in May 2016 CPI-All Items fell by 1.6% in May, compared to the 0.5% decline in April, mostly due to base effects associated with the timing of the disbursement of

More information

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015 Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%

More information

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs 3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs Several factors can impact the returns above variable costs for crop producers. Over a long period of time, sustained increases in the growth rate for purchased inputs

More information

February 2015 Monthly Investment Guide

February 2015 Monthly Investment Guide February 2015 Monthly Investment Guide 1 Table of contents (a) Key Investment Views 3 (b) Economy 4 (c) Equities 5 (d) Fixed Income 6 (e) Alternative Investments 7 (f) Data Gallery 10 2 Key Investment

More information

Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates

Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates July 2014 Key Points: Monetary policy, which operates through changes in the official cash rate (OCR), is the main lever of macroeconomic management in Australia

More information

ROBECO MULTI MARKET BOND JUL 03/13, USD

ROBECO MULTI MARKET BOND JUL 03/13, USD Benchmark: ATTRACTIVE YIELD IN COMBINATION WITH A SOLID FOUNDATION T HE PRO D UC T IN BRIEF : Issuer: Rabobank Nederland Currency: US dollars Nominal value: USD 1,000 Issue price: 100% Issue date: 15 July

More information

Consumer Price Developments in July 2015

Consumer Price Developments in July 2015 sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in July 2015 CPI-All Items inflation eased to -0.4% y-o-y in July CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.4% in July compared to -0.3% in June, mainly due to the lower

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an

More information

Index futures contract features. Contract features. MGEX Agricultural Index. MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options

Index futures contract features. Contract features. MGEX Agricultural Index. MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options 1 MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options Five agricultural indexes futures and options contracts: National Corn Index (NCI) National Soybean Index (NSI)

More information

Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade

Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade The coffee market registered further decreases in July with prices reacting to the depreciation in the Brazilian exchange rate, which dropped

More information

(c) 2006-2014 Gary R. Evans. May be used for non-profit educational purposes only without permission of the author.

(c) 2006-2014 Gary R. Evans. May be used for non-profit educational purposes only without permission of the author. The futures markets Introduction and Mechanics, using Natural Gas as the example (c) 2006-2014 Gary R. Evans. May be used for non-profit educational purposes only without permission of the author. Forward

More information