Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,

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1 Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements from Invest NI as the government agency entered a period of purdah on March 30 th ahead of the NI Assembly elections. However, during April there was some good news for Northern Ireland by way of the Delta Air Lines agreement to purchase 75 CS100 aircrafts (with the option for an additional 50) from Bombardier. As Bombardier s Belfast plant manufactures major components including the composite wings for the CSeries, this $5.6 billion order will undoubtedly have a positive economic impact on the local economy. Northern Ireland Labour Market DETINI s April 2016 Labour Market report was published on April 20 th and showed the following: The local employment rate increased over the quarter to 68.9% (this remains lower than the UK average (74.1%). The latest Labour Force Survey published in April indicated that the NI unemployment rate rose over the quarter to 6.3%. This is slightly above the averages for 2014 (6.2%) and 2015 (6.1%) The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits increased over the month by 200, to 38,600 in March. The long term unemployment rate (LFS) in NI is currently 47.8% which was down 14.5 percentage points over the year. However, the NI rate is markedly higher than the UK average of 27.9%. Youth unemployment was recorded at 18.5% in NI, down 2pps over the year but still significantly higher than the UK average rate of 11.9%. Page 1

2 United Kingdom GDP Q1 2016: Preliminary estimates from the Office of National Statistics during April showed that the UK economy grew by 0.4% in Q This compared to growth of 0.6% in the previous quarter. The Q1 growth rate was the slowest since Q when GDP growth was negative Output increased in services by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with production falling by 0.4%, construction output by 0.9% and agriculture by 0.1%. UK GDP was 2.1% higher in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago. Page 2

3 UK Labour market: Employment: In April 2016 the ONS reported that in the three months to February 2016 there were million people in work across the UK 360,000 more than a year earlier but down 9,000 over the quarter. The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.1%, -the highest level since Unemployment: The UK unemployment rate was 5.1%, lower than for a year earlier (5.6%). Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased by 1.8% including bonuses and by 2.2% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier UK Inflation: The Consumer Price Index in the UK was published during April and showed that UK headline inflation rose by 0.5% in the year to March Page 3

4 UK Retail Sales: Annual Growth: According to the ONS, year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed growth for the 35th consecutive month in March 2016, increasing by 2.7% compared with March last year. Monthly trends: Compared with February 2016, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 1.3% in March. Online Sales: The value of online sales increased by 8.9% in March 2016 compared with March 2015 and decreased by 0.5% compared with February 2016 UK Housing: The ONS reported on April 12 nd 2016 that UK house prices increased by 7.6 per in the year to February 2016, down from 7.9% in the year to January House price annual inflation was 8.2% in England, +2.8% in Wales, -0.8% in Scotland and 2.4% in Northern Ireland. Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 5% in the 12 months to February Global picture Page 4

5 In the US ISM manufacturing declined one index point to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. The fall in ISM manufacturing in April came after a sharp rebound in the last couple of months. Overall the US manufacturing sector appears to have stabilised in Q after some difficult months in the end of US manufacturing is expected to stay subdued but remain in positive growth territory in the months ahead. The weaker dollar, lower credit spreads, an end to the inventory adjustments, the higher oil price and stabilisation in China are all supportive and likely play a role here. GDP growth in the Euro area surprised on the upside as it increased 0.6% in Q q/q (up from 0.3% in Q4 15) and above expectation of an increase of 0.4% q/q. Other incoming data suggest that the stronger growth is driven by higher private consumption, which is supported by the still low oil price and progress in the labour market. Euro area unemployment declined to 10.2% in March from 10.4% the previous month. Headline inflation however is back in deflationary territory at -0.2% in March. Danske Bank looks for a further recovery of Chinese growth over the next couple of quarters driven by construction but also a boost to infrastructure spending and a turn in export growth. When looking at data for housing starts, industrial production and PMI, a clear picture of recovery emerges. Hence, we continue to believe the worst is behind us and we believe growth in these sectors bottomed in Q1 and is likely to recover in the course of The USD is set to weaken short term against emerging market currencies. Emerging market equities are set to rally further on stabilisation in China and rising metal prices. However, a recent default of a state-owned agency in Malaysia is worth noting by other highly leveraged emerging markets. Page 5

6 Key statistics GDP [latest qoq] UK Q1 16 (+0.4%) Ireland Q4 (+2.7%) Euro area Q (+0.6%) Inflation ( yoy) UK +0.5 % (March) Ireland +0.3% (March) Euro Area -0.2% (March) Unemployment Employment NI 68.9% UK 74.1% UK 5.1% NI 6.3 % Ireland 8.6 % (March 16) Euro area 10.2% (March 16) Key interest rates UK BoE 0.5% ECB 0% US Fed 0.5% Equity markets FTSE-100 6,199 Dow Jones 17,891 (3/05/16) Currency markets / = (79p) /$ = (68.31p) (3/05/16) Commodities Brent Crude $45.75 Gold Spot $1296 (3/05/16) Contact List For economic research reports please visit: e.mail : [email protected] Issued by Northern Bank Limited trading as Danske Bank (the Bank or We ). So far as the law or regulation allow, We disclaim any warranty or representation as to the accuracy or reliability of the information and statements in this commentary. We will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered from relying on this commentary. This commentary does not purport to contain all relevant information. Recipients should not rely on its contents but should make their own assessment and seek professional advice relevant to their circumstances. We may have proprietary positions in the products described in this commentary. This commentary is for information purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation, nor is it the intention of the Bank to create legal relations on the basis of the information contained in it. No part of this commentary may be reproduced without our prior permission. Danske Bank is a trading name of Northern Bank Limited which is authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Credit facilities other than regulated mortgages are not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered in Northern Ireland (registered number R568). Registered Office: Donegall Square West Belfast BT1 6JS. Northern Bank Limited is a member of the Danske Bank Group. Page 6