Economic Data. October 30, October 29, 2015

Transcription

1 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 1.40% 1.00% 1.40% EUR German Unemployment Change Oct -5K -4K 2k GBP Mortgage Approvals Sep 69K 73K 71k EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Oct EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Oct EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (OCT F) GBP CBI Reported Sales Oct USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 24) 260K 264K 259K USD GDP (Annualized) Q3 A 1.50% 1.60% 3.90% USD GDP Price Index Q3 A 1.20% 1.50% 2.10% CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Sep -0.30% -0.10% -0.30% CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep 3.00% 1.20% -6.60% EUR German CPI M/M Oct P 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% EUR German CPI Y/Y Oct P 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% USD Pending Home Sales M/M Sep -2.30% 0.20% -1.40% USD Natural Gas Storage 63B 70B 81B Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD Building Permits M/M Sep -5.70% -4.90% JPY Unemployment Rate Sep 3.40% 3.40% 3.40% JPY Household Spending Y/Y Sep -0.40% 1.20% 2.90% JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Sep -0.10% -0.20% -0.10% JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct -0.20% -0.20% -0.20% NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Oct GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct AUD PPI Q/Q Q3 0.90% 0.30% AUD PPI Y/Y Q3 0.80% 1.10% JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Sep 6.50% 8.80% CHF KOF Leading Indicator Oct EUR Italian Unemployment Rate Sep 11.90% 11.90% EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep 11.00% 11.00% EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct 0.00% -0.10% EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y (OCT A) 0.90% 0.90% USD Employment Cost Index Q3 0.60% 0.20% USD Personal Income Sep 0.20% 0.30% USD Personal Spending Sep 0.20% 0.40% USD PCE Deflator M/M Sep -0.10% 0.00% USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Sep 0.30% USD PCE Core M/M Sep 0.20% 0.10% USD PCE Core Y/Y Sep 1.30% CAD GDP M/M Aug 0.10% 0.30% USD Chicago PMI Oct USD U. of Michigan Confidence Oct F

2 Gold Recap Comex % Gold OCT NOV DEC FEB APR Spread NOV5 DEC5 FEB6 APR6 OCT NOV DEC FEB6-0.7 DGCX % % Vol. Volume Gold DEC FEB Spread FEB6 DEC5-0.8 MCX % % Vol. Volume Gold DEC FEB APR Change = -836 Spread FEB6 APR6 DEC FEB

3 Silver Recap Comex % Silver OCT NOV DEC JAN MAR Spread NOV5 DEC5 JAN6 MAR6 OCT NOV DEC JAN DGCX % % Vol. Volume Silver DEC MCX % % Vol. Volume Silver DEC MAR MAY Change = Spread MAR6 MAY6 DEC MAR6-845 Gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session lower Thursday, in the aftermath of a bearish report from the Federal Reserve. The FOMC statement provided a big and bearish shock for the precious metals markets and the rest of the raw commodity sector. The marketplace on Thursday was still digesting the results of the Federal Reserve s latest monetary policy meeting. The Dollar Index pushed lower against the other major currencies on Thursday, after the release of disappointing U.S. data dampened optimism over the strength of the economy. Data from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the three months to September, missing expectations for growth of 1.6%. The U.S. economy grew 3.9% in the previous quarter. However, this had little impact on the metal markets. 3

4 The Euro rebounded on Thursday erasing some of its losses, as traders continued to digest hawkish views from the Federal Reserve on the increasing likelihood of a December interest rate hike. Stocks were slightly lower by mid-afternoon Thursday with the energy sector struggling to stay positive as crude oil topped $46 a barrel. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust fell 0.17% on Wednesday from Tuesday. Data from SPDR Gold Trust showed its holdings fell to MT on Wednesday from MT on Tuesday. In terms of ounces, holdings fell to 22,323, ounces from 22,362, ounces. Holdings of ishares Silver Trust remained unchanged during the same period. COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total MT in Trust: : No change from yesterday s data. Silver Trust (SLV) Total MT in Trust: 9,814.20: No change from yesterday s data. Indian Gold and Silver prices fell on Thursday, tracking weak overseas prices. Gold spot rate in India was quoted at Rs. 27,050/10 Grams for 24 carat purity, down by 110/10 Grams, while Silver spot rate was quoted at Rs. 37,340/Kg, up by 105/ Kg, from previous close. Exchange deliverable stock position of Gold and Silver at MCX approved warehouses Commodity 27-Oct Oct-15 Gold Silver 12,149 12,149 Quantity Delivered in October 2015 on MCX platform Commodity Total Gold 1,767 Silver - LBMA Gold AM and PM Fix Date AM PM 29-Oct Oct Weekly Weekly Weekly Position Position Position Change Change Change Gold Futures 151,301 34, ,300-44,806 11,999 10,664 and Options 162,800 36, ,952-46,846 12,152 10,579 and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN Silver Futures 57,298 5,588-66,800-8,174 9, and Options 51,166 5,106-60,687-7,664 9, and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 4

5 COMEX Gold December (1147.0) MCX Gold December (26556) Trade Recommendations None. OUTLOOK Comex Gold could remain range bound to weak on expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise U.S. interest rates this year. Key intraday support is at Resistance is at MCX Gold could also remain range bound to weak, tracking weak overseas prices. Key intraday support is at and Key intraday resistance is at and

6 COMEX Silver December (15.605) MCX Silver December (36510) Trade Recommendations None. OUTLOOK Comex Silver could continue range bound to weak. Key intraday support is at A break below could pull prices to Key intraday resistance is at MCX Silver could trade range bound to weak, tracking weak overseas prices. Key intraday support is at A close below could pull prices to Key intraday resistance is at

7 MCX Forward Curve MCX and INR futures Correlation The 60-day correlation chart shows that the correlation between MCX Gold December and NSE INR December is 0.6%. 7

8 Gold Silver Ratio The Gold Silver ratio rose Thursday. The ratio could remain sideways. DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), ADM Investor Services International Limited (U.K) nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private Limited prior written consent. 8