Eurozone Economic dashboard

Transcription

1 Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of any economic or financial market and it is not intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance. Summary of current state as at 31 October 2015 LEGEND Represents the typical range for this indicator. 90% of the historical values for the indicator fall in this range. Shows the most recent value - the closer the marker is to the blue bar, the closer it is to historically typical conditions. Shows the range of more extreme conditions. Shows the most recent three-month trend indicating if it is moving toward or away from the typical range.

2 Interest Rates (German 10-year bond) MARKET INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 90 Oct 15 10% Nov % Dec % Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% '90'91'92 '93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08 '09'10 '11 '12'13'14' % This graph shows the evolution of interest rates on German debt, based on 10-year bonds. The interest rates for Germany s government bonds provide a simple, market-based view of the eurozone s underlying economic health. Also, they provide a useful way to measure investors appetite for risk. Since German bonds are considered the safest assets in the eurozone, they act as a safe haven when investors are concerned about the economic outlook. During these risk-off periods, the yield on German bond decreases; it currently hovers around historical lows. Low and falling rates indicate a weak economic environment; increasing rates a healthier one.

3 Market volatility (Vstoxx Index) MARKET INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES (index): Jan 99 Oct 15 70% 60% 50% Nov 14 Dec 14 18% 26% Jan 15 Feb 15 25% 18% Mar 15 Apr 15 21% 24% May 15 Jun 15 24% 32% Jul 15 Aug 15 19% 31% Sep 15 Oct 15 32% 21% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' % The VStoxx Index measures implied volatility in the eurozone equity market, based on the Euro Stoxx 50 index options traded on Eurex, which is composed of the 50 largest companies in the region. The VStoxx measures implied volatility, which is a barometer of investor sentiment and market risk. Since volatility often signifies financial turmoil and the VStoxx is much more sensitive to market falls than rises, it is sometimes referred to as the 'investor fear gauge'. A rise in value indicates a switch from complacency to a state of anxiety among investors, often caused by a stock market decline. When it moves outside of the typical range, the Vstoxx index can be used as a contrarian indicator based on the notion of an overshoot of investor fear or greed. A value above the typical range is a bullish signal; below the typical range it is a bearish signal.

4 Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Corporate debt spread (Bloomberg European Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index) MARKET INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUE (index): Apr 10 Oct bps 250bps N D J F M A M J J A S O (In basis points): Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct bps 150bps 100bps 50bps 90% INDICATOR VALUES FALL WITHIN THIS RANGE bps The Bloomberg European Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index is a measurement tool for evaluating yield differences between high quality government and corporate bonds of similar maturity. The Bloomberg European Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index is used as a gauge for investors confidence in the private sector. A widening spread indicates that investors are lacking confidence in the health of the private sector and in the economic outlook. It becomes then more expensive for companies to access credit and finance their projects.

5 Eurozone GDP ECONOMIC INDICATOR ANNUAL VALUES: Jan 99 Jun 15 5% J A S O N D J F M A M J Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 1.5% Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures the year-on-year change in the total market value of the region s output of goods and services. Calculating GDP growth allows economists to determine if overall income increased or decreased, regardless of changes in the purchasing power of the currency. This is the most widely-used measure of the overall economic activity and is viewed as a gauge of a region's fundamental economic health. A positive GDP growth number reflects a growing economy while a negative GDP growth number reflects a declining one. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline is generally associated with recession.

6 Unemployment rate (Eurostat) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY CHANGE: Jan 99 Sep 15 13% 12% Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' % 90% INDICATOR VALUES FALL WITHIN THIS RANGE The unemployment rate represents the number of people out of work as a percentage of the labour force. The labour force is the total number of people employed and unemployed aged 15 to 74. Data is seasonally adjusted. Employment rates help determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity. Whilst unemployment rates are rising, consumers feel uncertain about future economic prospects and may be reluctant to spend.

7 Credit growth (ECB Euro-area MFI loans to households and non-financial corporations - YoY%) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 99 Sep 15 15% 10% 5% Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % 0% -5% -10% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 0.0% The ECB Euro-area MFI loans to households and non-financial corporations is a composite measure of credit growth calculated on an annual basis. This indicator measures credit activity in the eurozone; specifically changes in households and non-financial companies actual borrowings from banks. This indicator can be used as a gauge of near-term economic activity, in particular household spending and corporate investments which are influential to economic growth and investments. An increase in credit growth shows that individuals and non-financial corporations are taking out more loans from banks, a sign of confidence in the overall economic activity and their financial outlook. This could lead to a pickup in economic growth.

8 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Producer confidence (EC Composite PMI output) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Oct 12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NEUTRAL LEVEL (50) The EC Composite PMI output indicator measures the confidence of the following sub-segments: industrial sector (40%), services (30%), consumer (20%), the building industry (5%) and retail (5%). The EC Composite PMI output is an indicator for producer sentiment in the eurozone. A reading above 50 shows an expansion in the corporate sector while a reading below the 50 mark is symptomatic of a contraction.

9 Inflation (Eurostat Eurozone MUICP all items Index) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 98 Oct 15 5% 4% 3% Nov % Dec % Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % 2% 1% 0% -1% '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 0.0% The core Eurostat Eurozone MUICP all items Index measures the average price increase for eurozone consumers on an annualized basis. Inflation indicates how prices have changed from year-to-year. High inflation can have a detrimental impact on investment while deflation (<0%) can cause spending to dry up.

10 Questions and Answers Q. What does the dashboard tell me? A. The dashboard monitors and reports on the movement of a number of key factors that provide an indication of the current state of the eurozone economy. We ve chosen seven key indicators that we think reflect the state of the economy across a number of different areas. The dashboard provides a regular update on the current measurement of these indicators relative to their long-term trends and signals if the trend is towards or away from their typical values. Q. Can I use the dashboard as a forecasting tool? A. No, the dashboard is not intended as a predictive or market timing tool. The dashboard is purely intended as a tool to set context and perspective when evaluating the current state of the economy and to help provide a focus for discussions with your adviser. It is not intended to predict future prospects for the economy or to guarantee future investment performance. Q. What defines the typical range? A. The dashboard definition of typical range is the range in which 90% of historical observations are most tightly clustered. For each indicator, this range is calculated annually at the end of March using the latest data available. Q. How should I interpret the chart? A. In simple terms, the chart shows the movement of a number of different economic and market variables in relation to their long term trends. The entire range of historical values is represented by the blue bar with the lowest recorded value shown on the left side and the highest recorded value on the right. The typical range (representing 90% of historical values) is represented by the blue bar. Readings outside of the typical range are seen as extreme and not representative of normal conditions. The most recent reading for each indicator is shown in the orange lozenge (this is the latest datum available for each source when the report is published). The arrow on the current value shows the direction of the three-month trend (i.e. moving towards or away from the centre of the typical range) and provides a suggestion of whether things are improving or getting worse. Q. Why are these indicators important? A. We chose these particular indicators because they represent a broad picture of the eurozone economy. Q. How often is the dashboard updated? A. The dashboard is updated every quarter with the latest data available from each of the data suppliers. While some of the indicators may be measured daily, we choose to use only the monthly numbers when possible, as they are better indicators of the overall economic trend.

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