The Need for International Weather Data and Related Products at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Presented to. CoCoRaHS

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1 The Need for International Weather Data and Related Products at the U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented to CoCoRaHS Weather Talk Webinar Series February 26, 2015

2 WASDE Report

3 USDA Situation and Outlook Organizational Structure Secretary/Deputy Secretary OCE Chief Economist WAOB Chairperson Chief Meteorologist USDA Contingent Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Interagency Agricultural Projections Coordinator Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees Chaired by WAOB Senior Analysts Grains Livestock Fibers Oilseeds Specialty Crops

4 USDA/JAWF S Main Responsibilities Routinely collect global agricultural weather information to determine the cumulative impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects; Provide information on weather-related agricultural developments to the Office of the Chief Economist and the Secretary of Agriculture; Publish the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin; and Provide crop-weather assessments for WAOB s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lockup report.

5 U.S. Dept. of Commerce National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist National Agricultural Statistics Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) National Weather Service/ National Centers for Environmental Prediction World Agricultural Outlook Board Agricultural Statistics Board Global Weather Data International Crop Information Domestic Crop Statistics JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY

6 Source: USDA

7 Source: USDA

8 Price Impact of 2008 Argentina Drought Soybean prices up 40 to 50 percent: U.S. acreage up 1.5 million acres from intentions

9 Sampling of Press Report Headlines - February 2015 Soaking rains to benefit Brazil coffee, sugar cane, grain crops RTRS Rain fosters soy and corn crops in Argentina meteorologist RTRS Higher-than-normal temperature in north China favorable for wintering of wheat - XINHUN Hailstorm damages upto 20% wheat crops in Shahkot, Nakodar HINDUT UPDATE 1 Cyclone threatens over 10 pct of Australian sugarcane industry body RTRS 23 Feb :05 MOROCCO COULD HARVEST RECORD CEREAL CROP ABOVE 10 MLN TONNES THIS YEAR AFTER FAVOURABLE RAINS FARM MINISTRY OFFICIAL + many others regarding weather impacts in other parts of the world

10 Weather Data Weather has a significant impact on crop development from pre-planting to harvesting. WMO Synoptic and Metar Observations Weather events must be closely monitored in all crop areas as each crop is affected differently by heat, drought and other weather and climate extremes during the growing season. NWS NCEP USDA Products CPC

11 * Random sampling of available daily weather data * Most have data since at least 1982 (many with normals) Location of weather stations received daily via the WMO 1 1 United Nations World Meteorological Organization

12 Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF) Secondary sources of weather data WMO (~70) Rain Gauge (900+) Data obtained by CPC from the Mexican weather bureau are incorporated into the weekly rainfall chart created for the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and are provided separately to USDA analysts for their analysis of crop weather impacts.

13 Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF) Secondary sources of weather data Weekly Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (WMO) Weekly Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (Mexican Rain Gauge) 0-1 mm 1-10 mm mm mm mm > 100 mm 0-1 mm 1-10 mm mm mm mm > 100 mm The maps above highlight the differences that arise using WMO data, which are sparse in coverage, versus the supplemental rain gauge data, which provides a denser network of stations and a better representation of rainfall.

14 Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF) Validation using existing GIS products Estimated Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (CMORPH) Weekly Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (Mexican Rain Gauge) 0-1 mm 1-10 mm mm Lower (1-10 mm) Higher (~ 200 mm) Highest (> 400 mm) mm mm > 100 mm Comparison with other sources of information, including satellite derived estimates (CMORPH), support the rain gauge analysis.

15 Salta Tu. Santiago del Estero Chaco Santa Fe Form. Corrientes Salta Tu. Santiago del Estero Chaco Santa Fe Form. Corrientes Cordoba Entre Rios Cordoba Entre Rios San Luis San Luis La Pampa Buenos Aires La Pampa Buenos Aires * Corn Yields * Soybean Yields Stations in Main Crop Area Yields *Average (2005/06-09/10) Lower Production Intensity Higher *Source: SAGPyA

16 2009/ / /15 Average

17

18

19 MT/HA Argentina Corn Yield Actual vs. Forecast Forecast: 8.53 MT/HA, SE: Fcst Actual MinAg Yield Min Ag Yield f(trend, 2012 Dummy, Dec Jan Avg Temp, Dec Jan Total Pcp, Dec Jan Total Pcp^2

20 Soybean Production Brazil and Paraguay Para Maranhao Piaui Rondonia Mato Grosso Tocantins Soy: ~60% 1 st Corn: ~50% Aw: Tropical wet and dry Cr: Subtropical Rain Mato Grosso do Sul Goias Minas Gerais Bahia Soybean Production *Average ( ) Soy: ~40% 1 st Corn: ~50% Paraguay Parana Sao Paulo Minor Production Intensity *Source: MINAG / IBGE Major Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & Paraguay Flower Planting Fill Harvesting JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

21 Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm) Jul-01 Jul-23 Aug-14 Sep-05 Sep-27 Oct-19 Nov-10 Dec-02 Dec-24 Jan-15 Feb-06 Feb-28 Mar-22 Apr-13 May-05 May-27 Jun-18 Parana MT

22 April 8

23 April 8 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields : Above-normal rainfall, then early end to season 2 nd crop yield: 4.02 mt/ha (down 15.5%) Metric Tons Per Hectare (mt/ha) Source: IBGE/CONAB Observed Predicted

24 April 8 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields : Near-normal rainfall, then unusual May / June rainfall 2 nd crop yield: 5.70 mt/ha (up 15.5%) Metric Tons Per Hectare (mt/ha) Source: IBGE/CONAB Observed Predicted

25 April 8 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields : Above-normal rainfall, then scattered showers in May 2 nd crop yield: 5.78 mt/ha (up 13.4%) Metric Tons Per Hectare (mt/ha) Source: IBGE/CONAB Observed Predicted

26 * State-Level Production (as % of total) Mato Grosso Parana Rio Grande do Sul Goias Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Bahia Sao Paulo Maranhao Santa Catarina Tocantins Other ~2 Brazil Soybeans Acre Amazonas Roraima Rondonia Para Mato Grosso Amapa Tocantins Goias Maranhao a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Piaui a Bahia d f b e c * 2005 to 2009 Average Source: IBGE Brazil Soybean crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil Planting Flower Fill Harvesting JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Santa Catarina Mato Grosso do Sul Parana Rio Grande do Sul Sao Paulo Minas Gerais i Soybean Production *Average ( ) h Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major

27 Elements: Average Temperature, Days >=35 C, Precipitation, Days Between Rainfall Rio Grande do Sul: Jan, Feb, Mar (r 2 =.99) Estimated yield: 2.54 mt/ha Parana: Dec, Jan, Feb (r 2 =.92) Estimated yield: 2.78 mt/ha March Lockup: 2.45 mt/ha

28 30 Comparison of Yield Departures From Trend Parana versus Mato Grosso do Sul 20 MGDS Parana 10 Perccent (%) Pr %Diff MS %Diff

29 Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015 Precipitation (mm)

30 Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015 Crop Mask (~50 mm or less) Precipitation (mm) *Soy: 25% ( ) *1 st Corn: 34% ( ) * Source: IBGE

31 * State-Level Production (as % of total) Parana Minas Gerais Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Sao Paulo Goias Bahia Mato Grosso Para Mato Grosso do Sul Ceara Sergipe Maranhao Other States * 2007 to 2009 Average Source: IBGE Brazil Brazil Corn (First Crop) ~4 Acre Amazonas Roraima Rondonia Para Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Amapa Tocantins Goias Sao Paulo a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Maranhao Piaui Minas Gerais i a Bahia h d f b e c 1 st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil Period of Highest Intensity Plant Harvest Santa Catarina Parana Rio Grande do Sul Corn Production *Average ( ) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC In Northeast Brazil, 1 st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul). Minor Production Intensity Major *Source: IBGE

32 * State-Level Production (as % of total) Minas Gerais Parana Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Goias Sao Paulo Bahia Maranhao Piaui Para Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Ceara Other States * 2011 to 2013 Average Source: IBGE Brazil Brazil Corn (First Crop) ~4 Acre Amazonas Roraima Rondonia Para Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Amapa Tocantins Goias Sao Paulo a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Maranhao Piaui Minas Gerais i a Bahia h d f b e c 1 st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil Period of Highest Intensity Plant Harvest Santa Catarina Parana Rio Grande do Sul Corn Production *Average ( ) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC In Northeast Brazil, 1 st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul). Minor Production Intensity Major *Source: IBGE

33 Other Climate Data / Information

34 Australia

35 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

36 2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region / /03 09/ / La Niña Neutral / non-event El Niño

37 1997/ /03 06/07 09/10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

38

39 Thank You!

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