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1 January 7, Alan Grafton University of Mississippi BBA Finance 1992 MBA University of Memphis 2004 United Agri Products Ag Services of America AgKnowledge Kennedy & Coe

2 Many Hats Purchasing Agent Negotiator Equipment Expert Mechanic Technology Agronomist Planner Marketing Human Resources Analyst 3 State of Ag Rising Cost Falling Revenue Reduction or Loss of Subsidies Environment Issues(Water, GMO, Animal Welfare, Sustainability) Growing Population Public Perception(getting rich) 4 2

3 Corn Revenue 5 Soybean Revenue 6 3

4 Corn Seed 7 Corn Fertilizer 8 4

5 Corn Chemicals 9 Corn Variable Expense 10 5

6 Corn Yields 11 Yield/Net 12 6

7 Price/Net 13 SCF/Yield 14 7

8 Soybean Variable Expense 15 Soybean Yield/Net 16 8

9 Soybean Price/Net 17 SCF/Yield 18 9

10 Overhead 19 Today s Reality Corn Soybeans Average Yield Price $ 4.50 $ $ $ Average Overhead $ $ Average Seed $ $ Average Fertilizer $ $ Average Chemical $ $ Average other Variable $ $ $ $ $ (55.00) $ (72.50) 20 10

11 Know Breakeven 21 Know Breakeven 22 11

12 What do you know? Variable Expense does this cost change when my crops change or yield change Overhead what cost will I have no matter what I plant or yield Does the money I am spending have a positive impact(greater yield, drive another cost down, etc.) Where am I efficient 23 Efficiency Land is the revenue on the land paying for the variables, overhead, and land Equipment is the equipment be maximized Is your labor utilized to capacity Does my insurance match my values 24 12

13 XYZ Farms Corn Center Enterprise XYZ Farms Corn Center $ Acres 250 Projected Cost/Acre 770 Yield 180 Profit Matrix Cost Stress Test 100% Production (bu) 45,000 $ 4.28 $ 5.28 $ $ 4.78 $ 5.03 $ $ $ 618 Price 5.03 $ $ 318 $ 378 $ 438 $ 498 $ 558 $ $ 531 Crop Revenue 226,500 $ $ $ 250 $ 306 $ 363 $ 419 $ 475 $ $ 445 Seed Premium $ $ $ 182 $ 235 $ 287 $ 340 $ 392 $ $ 358 Hedge Gain/Loss $ $ $ 114 $ 163 $ 212 $ 260 $ 309 $ $ 271 Total Corn Revenue 226,500 $ $ $ 46 $ 91 $ 136 $ 181 $ 226 $ $ (63) $ (22) $ 19 $ 61 $ 102 $ 143 $ $ 98 Corn Fixed Costs Total $ $/Acre $/Bu % of Cost 150 (127) $ (90) $ (52) $ (15) $ 23 $ 60 $ Equipment 18,750 $ $ 0.42 $ 9.7% 135 (192) $ (158) $ (124) $ (90) $ (57) $ (23) $ $ 11 $ (76) Rent 37,500 $ $ 0.83 $ 19.5% 120 (256) $ (226) $ (196) $ (166) $ (136) $ (106) $ Other Overhead 16,100 $ $ 0.36 $ 8.4% $ 37.6% Total Fixed Costs 72,350 $ $ 1.61 Percent of Total Corn Costs Corn Inputs Fertilizer 41,250 $ $ 0.92 $ 21.4% $ 14.5% Seed 28,000 $ $ % Chemicals 11,750 $ $ 0.26 $ 6.1% $ 42.1% Total Input Costs 81,000 $ $ % Corn Variable Costs Fuel 14,242 $ $ 0.32 $ 7.4% $ 3.7% Labor 7,206 $ $ 0.16 $ 2.6% Repairs 5,000 $ $ 0.11 $ 0.9% Custom Air 1,750 $ 7.00 $ 0.04 $ 0.0% Machine Hire $ $ 42.1% Boll Weevil $ $ $ 0.0% $ 1.6% Crop Insurance 3,000 $ $ 0.07 $ 1.3% Grain Hauling 2,500 $ $ 0.06 $ 0.5% Crop Consultant 1,000 $ 4.00 $ 0.02 $ 0.4% Marketing Consultant 813 $ 3.25 $ 0.02 Total Fixed Costs Total Input Costs Total Variable Costs Other $ $ $ 0.0% $ 18.4% Total Variable Costs 35,510 $ $ 0.79 WORK HERE Projected Cost/Acre Total Corn Costs 188,860 $ $ 4.20 $ 98.1% $ <<<Link Interest 3,637 $ $ 0.08 $ 1.9% Cost Stress Test 100% $ Chang in Price ("+" 0.25 Corn Net Income 34,003 $ $ 0.76 & " ") $ $ (0.25) 15 Return on Investment 18% Change in Yield ("+" & " ") 15 $ Net Before Fixed 106,353 Return Before Fixed 55% 25 Look Back XYZ Farms Corn Dashboard Acreage Yield Prod (Bu) Revenue Current Price 12/4/2013 Planned ,000 $ 226,500 Futures or Booked ,000 $ 114,000 Net Cash Basis Net Unbooked ,000 $ 112,500 $ 4.75 $ (0.25) $ 4.50 Overbooked Weighted Price $ 5.03 Percent Booked 44% Loan Price $ $/bu Bushels Total Break Even Yield Seed Premium $ $ Break Even Production 38,244 Date Booked bu. Futures Est. basis Net Revenue B/E Buyer Contract # Notes 7/15/ ,000 $ 5.70 $ $ 5.70 $ 114,000 $ 0 Total or Average 20,000 $ 5.70 $ $ 5.70 $ 114,000 Price Breakeven $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $ Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 7 Feb 7 Mar 7 Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 26 13

14 Compare Crops XYZ Farms Plan Update 12/4/2013 Cotton Corn Soybeans Wheat Rice Total ,000 Acres Variable Costs 139, ,510 58,815 23, , ,505 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Variable Cost/Acre 558 $ 466 $ 294 $ 237 $ 611 $ Booked Revenue $ 114,000 $ 58,500 $ 34,500 $ $ 207,000 $ 616,470 UnBooked Revenue 216,370 $ 112,500 $ 70,500 $ 13,100 $ 204,000 $ $ 823,470 Total Revenue 216,370 $ 226,500 $ 129,000 $ 47,600 $ 204,000 $ 79% Return before Fixed Costs 55% 94% 119% 101% 67% Fixed Costs 73,850 72,350 57,880 23,590 58, ,300 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 76,666 Net Income 3,139 $ 37,640 $ 12,305 $ 331 $ 23,251 $ 10% Total Return 1% 20% 11% 1% 13% Production 275,000 45,000 11,000 7,000 34,000 Booked Production 20,000 5,000 5,000 Booked % 0% 44% 45% 71% 0% UnBooked Production 275,000 25,000 6,000 2,000 34,000 UnBooked % 100% 56% 55% 29% 100% Current Market Price $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.00 Weighted Client Price 0.79 $ 5.03 $ $ 6.80 $ $ 6.12 Target Price 0.89 $ 4.85 $ $ 7.00 $ $ (0.12) Over/Under Target (0.10) $ 0.18 $ (0.47) $ (0.20) $ $ BreakEven Price $ $ $ $ $ 0.68 Over/Under BreakEven 0.01 $ 0.84 $ 1.12 $ 0.05 $ Hedge Gain/Loss Futures $ $ $ $ $ Options $ $ $ $ $ $ Hedge Gain/Loss $ $ $ $ $ $ Net Income $ 3,139 $ 37,640 $ 12,305 $ 331 $ 23,251 $ 76, Projections XYZ Farms Corn Center Projected Cost/Acre $ 770 Profit Matrix Cost Stress Test 100% $ 3.70 $ 3.95 $ 4.20 $ 4.45 $ 4.70 $ 4.95 $ $ 118 $ 178 $ 238 $ 298 $ 358 $ 418 $ $ 63 $ 119 $ 175 $ 231 $ 288 $ 344 $ $ 7 $ 60 $ 112 $ 165 $ 217 $ 270 $ $ (48) $ 0 $ 49 $ 98 $ 147 $ 195 $ $ (104) $ (59) $ (14) $ 31 $ 76 $ 121 $ $ (159) $ (118) $ (77) $ (36) $ 6 $ 47 $ $ (215) $ (177) $ (140) $ (102) $ (65) $ (27) $ $ (270) $ (237) $ (203) $ (169) $ (135) $ (102) $ (68) 120 $ (326) $ (296) $ (266) $ (236) $ (206) $ (176) $ (146) 28 14

15 95% of Cost XYZ Farms Corn Center Projected Cost/Acre $ 770 Profit Matrix Cost Stress Test 95% $ 3.70 $ 3.95 $ 4.20 $ 4.45 $ 4.70 $ 4.95 $ $ 157 $ 217 $ 277 $ 337 $ 397 $ 457 $ $ 101 $ 157 $ 214 $ 270 $ 326 $ 382 $ $ 46 $ 98 $ 151 $ 203 $ 256 $ 308 $ $ (10) $ 39 $ 88 $ 136 $ 185 $ 234 $ $ (65) $ (20) $ 25 $ 70 $ 115 $ 160 $ $ (121) $ (80) $ (38) $ 3 $ 44 $ 85 $ $ (176) $ (139) $ (101) $ (64) $ (26) $ 11 $ $ (232) $ (198) $ (164) $ (131) $ (97) $ (63) $ (29) 120 $ (287) $ (257) $ (227) $ (197) $ (167) $ (137) $ (107) 29 Margin Opportunities 600+ Transactions Vendors Input Invoices 30 15

16 Pre Purchase What are your risk cost falling Is the discount enough to cover cost of $ Locks in production cost(that item) 31 Measure Product Price Purchased Amount Interest Per Acre Seed $ $ 131, $ 131, $ Seed $ $ 113, $ 2, $ 116, $ Fertilizer $ $ 120, $ 3, $ 123, $ Fertilizer $ $ 138, $ 138, $ Fertilizer $ $ 120, $ 3, $ 123, $ Fertilizer $ $ 123, $ 123, $

17 Steps to Success History if you don t have a system to keep info, start Plan Put a short, intermediate, and long term plan together Tracking keep records(bookkeeping, inputs, yields, etc.) Reporting Look back, it will help you as you move forward 33 Core AgKnowledge Working Capital Variable Cost of Production(by crop) Land Capabilities Equipment Efficiency Overhead(Fixed Expenses) Personal Spending Cap Ex Spending Crop Insurance(correct yields) 34 17

18 Implementation Accurate Financial Statement No Secrets Build an accurate budget(real numbers) Consistent Categories Use a fiscal year Good Bookkeeping 35 Real Numbers Realistic Goals Measureable Results Results 36 18

19 Inches Matter 37 19

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