October 1, Contents. 1. Recap. 2. Physical Market Rates. 3. Arrivals. 4. Weather. 5. Charts and Outlook. 6. Disclaimer

Transcription

1 Contents 1. Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1

2 Recap Indian markets NCDEX Net % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soybean OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB Net Total Change in OI = -170 Spread OCT5 NOV5 DEC5 JAN6 FEB6 OCT NOV DEC JAN6-67 NCDEX Net % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soy Oil OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB Net Total Change in OI = 430 Spread OCT5 NOV5 DEC5 JAN6 FEB6 OCT NOV DEC JAN NCDEX RM Net % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Seed OCT NOV DEC JAN Net Total Change in OI = Spread OCT5 NOV5 DEC5 JAN6 OCT NOV DEC5-13 Indian Oilseed complex prices ended lower yesterday on likely profit booking after the recent gains amid weak overseas prices. Rupee ended higher. According to IMD, 2015 monsoon rainfall in India were 14% below normal. Kharif sowing progress - area of million hectares were covered by oilseeds as of 18 2

3 September vs million hectares covered in the corresponding period last year. Soybean sowing extended to million hectares. Soy meal exports from India were at 768 MT in August 2015 vs. 928 MT in July 2015 and 2,778 MT in August Total oilmeal exports in August 2015 were 91K MT vs. 44K MT in July 2015 and 156K MT in August India s veg oil imports in August were 1.36 million MT vs million MT in July and 1.32 million MT in Aug In Nov- Aug period, India imported million MT of veg oils vs million MT in the corresponding period during previous year. According to 1 st Advance estimates for released by GoI, India s output for Soybean is estimated at million MT. NCDEX Warehouse Inventory 28-Sep Sep-15 RM Seed - Jaipur RM Seed - Bikaner RM Seed - Kota RM Seed - Alwar RM Seed - Jodhpur RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar TOTAL RM Seed India Physical Market Rates Date Commodity Rate Units 30-Sep-15 Soybean - Indore - NCDEX Rs. / 100 Kg 30-Sep-15 Soybean - Kota - NCDEX Rs. / 100 Kg 30-Sep-15 Soybean - Nagpur - NCDEX Rs. / 100 Kg 30-Sep-15 Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX Rs. / 10 Kg 30-Sep-15 Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX Rs. / 10 Kg 30-Sep-15 Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX Rs. / 10 Kg 30-Sep-15 Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX Rs. / MT 30-Sep-15 Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX Rs. / MT 30-Sep-15 Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA USD / MT 30-Sep-15 Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA USD / MT 30-Sep-15 Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX Rs. / 10 Kg 3

4 International CBOT Soybean Previous Close Open High Low Net % NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL CBOT Soy Meal Net Previous Close Open High Low % OCT DEC JAN MAR MAY CBOT Soy Oil Net Previous Close Open High Low % OCT DEC JAN MAR MAY CBOT Soy complex prices ended mixed yesterday. Soybeans rose yesterday after USDA reported lower than expected US domestic stocks at 191 million bushels vs. expectations of 205 million bushels. USDA also lowered its estimate of the Soybean crop harvested in 2014 to billion bushels from billion bushels. USDA data showed US Soybeans were rated 62% good-excellent for the week ending 27 September vs. 63% a week ago and 72% a year ago. According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 22 September, non commercial traders increased their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans. ICE Canola prices closed flat yesterday. 4

5 Physical Market Rates Physical Market Rates - Soybean Date Commodity Rate Units 30-Sep-15 Brazil Soybean September - FOB Paranagua $ / MT 1-Oct-15 Argentina Soybean October - FOB Up River $ / MT 30-Sep-15 China Imported Soybean Dalian CNY / MT 1-Oct-15 USA Soybean September - FOB Gulf $ / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy meal Date Commodity Rate Units 1-Oct-15 Brazil Soy meal September - FOB Paranagua $ / MT 1-Oct-15 Argentina Soy meal October - FOB Up River $ / MT 30-Sep-15 China HQ Soy meal Dalian CNY / MT Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil Date Commodity Rate Units 30-Sep-15 Brazil Soy Oil October - FOB Paranagua $ / MT 1-Oct-15 Argentina Soy Oil October - FOB Up River $ / MT 30-Sep-15 China Standard Soy Oil Dalian CNY / MT 30-Sep-15 India Soy Oil Degummed CIF Mumbai $ / MT 5

6 Arrivals 6

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8 Weather Source - IMD IMD Forecast for 1 October - Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, interior Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala. 8

9 Charts & Outlook NCDEX Charts Source: - Reuters NCDEX Soybean October ( ) Trade Recommendation: - None. Source: - Reuters NCDEX Soy Oil October (598.05) Trade Recommendation: - None. 9

10 Source: - Reuters NCDEX RM Seed October ( ) Trade Recommendation: - None. NCDEX Outlook: - Soybean/ Soy oil prices have supports at 3350/585 levels. Near term test of support levels may be seen on profit booking after the recent surge. RM Seed has supports at 4400 levels with upside potential of CBOT Charts Source: - Reuters CBOT Soybean November (891.00) Trade Recommendation: - None. 10

11 Source: - Reuters CBOT Soy meal December (306.70) Trade Recommendation: - None. Source: - Reuters CBOT Soy Oil December (27.59) Trade Recommendation: - None. Outlook: - Soybean/meal/ Soy oil supports are at 850/300/26.00 levels. Near term rally towards 920/320/28.50 levels may be seen while above support levels. Physical demand remains strong at lower levels. 11

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