Yara International ASA Fourth quarter results February 2012

Transcription

1 Yara International ASA Fourth quarter results February 212

2 1 Summary fourth quarter Strong quarter and best full-year results so far Good farm profitability drove improved margins, more than offsetting weaker fertilizer deliveries Continued strong demand for premium products, especially outside Europe Divestment of 16% in Yara Praxair at attractive terms Proposed dividend NOK 7 per share

3 2 Earnings per share* NOK 2 EPS excluding currency and special items Annual NOK * Average number of shares for 4Q 211: 286. million (4Q 21: million).

4 3 211 earnings per share highest so far NOK per share Healthy grain fundamentals and farm margins led to strong demand for all nutrients Supply constraints as China halved exports due to a tighter domestic market and higher coal prices Rossosh and 16% in Yara Praxair divested at attractive terms 5 24PF

5 4 Yara growth strategy on track Yara Pilbara (Burrup) Important to secure control Intensify work on the TAN project Renamed to Yara Pilbara, quickly establish Yara standards of corporate governance Yara Belle Plaine expansion Evaluating a world-scale ammonia/urea expansion Excellent location large consumption area with logistical advantage Utilizing existing infrastructure

6 5 Fertilizer market development Continued strong prices for agricultural commodities support fertilizer demand Average urea price for the quarter 25% above last year Volatile buying pattern for urea, sharp correction in December followed by rebound in January 21% decrease in Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer sales for the quarter Global phosphate and potash demand hurting from reduced use in India, price effects mitigated by production curtailments Lower Chinese urea exports

7 6 Food prices at high levels despite drop in fourth quarter Index 25 FAO price index /24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/21 1/211 Cereals Price Index Food Price Index Yearly avg Food price index Source: FAO

8 7 European deliveries lagging last season Million tons USA Million tons West Europe % H7 2H8 2H9 2H1 2H11 Production Net imports. 2H7 2H8 2H9 2H1 2H11 Domestic Imports Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates

9 8 Strong European 2Q deliveries despite drought Kilotons 2,5 European nitrogen deliveries 2, 1,5 1, 5-3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Average

10 9 Chinese domestic urea price remains strong RMB/t 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Urea price ex works Anthracite price Higher coal prices, increased focus on emission control and energy efficiency has led to higher domestic urea prices Source: China Fertilizer Market Week

11 Current domestic price and 212 tariff implies swing price of USD 385 fob China 1 USD/t CMD 211 Anthracite price & 212 system Domestic price & 212 system Domestic price & 11% tax Cash cost Inland transport Tax Producer margin Series5

12 11 Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China in line with historical consumption growth Year 211 China 46% Pakistan 18% 212 China 64% Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative to nitrogen capacity World Excluding China World Excluding China Qatar 1% 213 China 28% Algeria 22% 214 Algeria 23% Saudi Arabia 23% 215 Brazil 18% Indonesia 15% Pakistan 34% Iran 17% Qatar 27% Algeria 23% Algeria 3% India 19% Algeria 25% Saudi Arabia 25% Brazil 19% Indonesia 16% 1.6% (2.%) 1.4% (1.5%) 4.2% (4.2%) 2.4% (3.1%) 2.3% (2.%) 2.7% (2.2%).3% (.9%).5% (1.4%) 2.1% (-) 3.2% (-) Gross annual addition ~2.% Assumed annual closures ~.5% Net annual addition ~1.5% Trend consumption growth from % 2.% Source: Fertecon urea update January 212. Consumption data source is IFA. Previous update in paranthesis

13 12 Near-term capacity delays continue New urea capacity Million tons Lead time for a new greenfield project 4-5 years Good visibility on projects short to medium term Potential delays could impact phasing Oct-1 Jan-12 Source: Fertecon urea updates

14 13 Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) NOK millions 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 6,215 6,89 3,988 1,626 2,36 EBITDA excluding special items 1, ,394 3,251 6,587 2,992 2,486 4,281 3,455 5,444 4,982 1, Annual NOK millions 17,917 5,549 15,315 18,163

15 14 Variance analysis Yara group NOK millions 4Q 211 EBITDA 211 4,982 EBITDA 21 2,992 Variance EBITDA 1,99 Volume & mix (392) Price/Margin 2,146 Oil & gas costs in Europe (543) Special items 1134 Other (245) Conversion (NOK vs. USD)* (19) Total variance explained 1,99 * Based on average NOK per USD rate for the quarter 211: 5.76 (21: 5.92)

16 15 Net debt development NOK millions 6, 5,5 5, 4, ,539 4,5 2,39 4, 3, , 2,5 2, Net interestbearing debt Sep 11* 2, Cash earnings** Dividends received from equity accounted investees Net operating capital change Yara Praxair divestment Investments (net) Share buybacks Foreign exchange loss Other Net interestbearing debt Dec 11 * Included in net interest-bearing debt are external bank time deposits (4-12 months), this is part of other current assets in balance sheet ** Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges

17 16 Stable debt/equity ratio Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

18 17 Proposed dividend of NOK 7 per share NOK per share

19 18 EBITDA per segment NOK millions 4, 3, EBITDA excluding special items 3,221 2, 1,735 1, 74 1, Downstream Industrial Upstream 4Q11 4Q1

20 19 Downstream segment Strong full year, but lower quarter result compared with 21 European sales down 18%, satisfactory sales outside Europe Healthy margins for premium products despite 3% urea price drop during the quarter Low third-party stock levels limit write-downs

21 2 Good NPK quarter Kilotons NPK volumes USD/t NPK margins* 2, 18 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 4Q Full year * Product from Porsgrunn, Glomfjord, Ravenna and Montoir sold in Europe

22 European producer nitrate stocks increased in 4Q 21 Index, June 27= Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 11/12 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Fertilizers Europe

23 22 Industrial segment Strong full year, but quarter result below normal level due to higher commodity prices Economic uncertainty impacts sales to European process industry TAN recovery due to higher mining activity in main markets Continued improvement in the environmental segment

24 23 Upstream segment Strong result Higher prices more than offset increased energy costs Fertilizer production running close to full capacity Qafco 5 and 6 starting production

25 24 Share of net income in equity-accounted investees NOK millions 4Q 211 4Q 21 Qafco Tringen Burrup 55 (112) GrowHow UK Ltd Lifeco (31) 43 Other Total

26 Cost change on previous year 25 Estimated European energy cost NOK millions 1,4 1,2 Actual for quarter January 211 estimate* 1, Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 * Based on forward prices as of 26 January

27 26 Prospects first quarter 212 Good farm margins indicate normal spring nitrogen consumption in Northern Hemisphere Pick-up in nitrogen markets in January, but total 211/12 European industry deliveries could end lower year-over-year Yara targeting stable European nitrate market share for the season Yara s first-quarter energy costs expected NOK 15 million higher, based on forward prices as of 26 January

28 27 Continued strong price incentives necessary to avoid inventory decline Grain production and consumption Million tons 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1, F Consumption Production Days of consumption in stocks Days F Source: USDA, January 212

29 28 Prospects next twelve months Continued healthy crop prices and farm margins required to avoid decline in global grain inventories Chinese urea export swing level at approx. USD 385 per ton fob, based on official information and today s domestic price Significant near-term capacity delays: Fertecon estimates for 212 ex China revised down from 3.1% to 2.4% of consumption Lifeco: Yara targeting start-up in third quarter

30 Additional Information

31 3 Net income after non-controlling interests NOK millions 5, 4,354 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,88 3, , ,716 1,927 1,424 1,522 1,564 2,889 2,225 3,566 3,386-1, -2, -3, -2, Annual NOK millions 8,228 3,782 8,729 12,66

32 31 Fertilizer volumes Kilotons 7, Outside Europe Europe 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 6,284 6,17 2,575 3,15 3,71 3,2 4,742 2,18 2,562 3,496 1,54 1,956 5,21 5,216 5,129 4,882 4,791 2,658 2,765 2,146 2,29 2,355 2,983 2,592 2,551 2,451 2,436 5,474 4,759 2,91 4,914 2,514 2,412 2,347 2,564 2,4 5,481 2,543 2,937 4,97 4,834 2,715 2,617 4,239 2,28 2,256 2,216 1,96 1, Accumulated, Kt Fin. fertilizer 2,54 2,99 2,276 19,522

33 32 Yara 4Q fertilizer sales by market and product 211: 4.2 million tons (21: 4.9 million tons) Kilotons 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 4Q1 4Q11 2,41 1, Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa Kilotons 3, 4Q1 4Q11 2, 1, 1,685 1,547 1,287 1,86 1, NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN

34 33 Yara production volume* Finished fertilizer Ammonia Kilotons 5, Kilotons 2,5 4,5 4, 2, 3,5 3, 1,5 2,5 2, 1, 1,5 1, UAN CN NPK Nitrates Urea * Including share of equity-accounted investees

35 34 Spot natural gas versus Yara average Yearly averages 25 21, quarterly averages for with forward prices* for 1Q12 and 2Q12 USD per MMBtu Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 26 January 212 Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts

36 35 Chinese exports needed to balance the global market Accumulated urea exports Urea price and export tax Kilotons USD per ton Export tax 8, 9 2 % 7, % 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Urea fob Black Sea Export tax 16 % 14 % 12 % 1 % 8 % 6 % 4 % 2 % % Source: BOABC

37 36 Key value drivers quarterly averages Zeebrugge day ahead(usd/mmbtu) Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t) CAN cif Germany (USD/t) Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q11 US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu) Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) NOK/USD exchange rate Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q11 4Q Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q11 Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

38 37 1-year fertilizer prices monthly averages USD/t 1, Ammonia fob Black Sea USD/t 5 CAN cif Germany USD/t 8 Urea prilled fob Black Sea USD/t 1,2 DAP fob US Gulf 6 1, Source: Average of international publications Average prices