Example of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices

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1 Example of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices Firm A expects to consume 5,, litres of diesel fuel over the next 12 months. Fuel represents a large expense for the firm, and volatile prices make it difficult to forecast what their overall energy costs will be. Rather than accept the risk that prices may rise, they decide to lock-in the price they will pay for fuel by purchasing Heating Oil futures contracts that trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil is highly correlated with diesel fuel (see attached case study for more details). Typically their usage spikes during the summer months and declines into winter. As a result they will purchase more futures for delivery in the summer months than for delivery in the winter months. Fuel Usage 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,, May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- Litres Contract Month Contracts Gallons Litres *Price *Price gallons $USD litres $USD May , 476, Jun , 635, Jul- 5 2, 794, Aug- 5 2, 794, Sep , 635, Oct- 2 84, 317, Nov- 1 42, 158, Dec- 1 42, 158, Jan- 1 42, 158, Feb- 1 42, 158, Mar- 2 84, 317, Apr , 476, ,344, 5,87,4 *Prices as of April 1st, 2

2 Between April 1st, when the hedge was entered, and May 27th the price of Heating Oil has gone up by about 2 cents per gallon. The table below shows the unrealized gains on the hedge. Contract Month Contracts Gallons Litres Entry Price *Current Price *Current Price Unrealized gallons $USD gallons $USD litres $USD Profit or Loss **May , 476, $3,918.6 Jun , 635, $32,474.4 Jul- 5 2, 794, $39,669. Aug- 5 2, 794, $41,391. Sep , 635, $34,876.8 Oct- 2 84, 317, $18,236.4 Nov- 1 42, 158, $9,265.2 Dec- 1 42, 158, $9,349.2 Jan- 1 42, 158, $9,475.2 Feb- 1 42, 158, $9,61.2 Mar- 2 84, 317, $19,496.4 Apr , 476, $29,622.6 Total: 32 1,344, 5,87,4 $249,538.8 *Prices as of May 27th, 2 **Contract expiry During this same period, the price of diesel fuel has gone up by a similar amount. The extra fuel expense incurred during this period will be offset by the profit realized on the futures transaction.

3 Case Study #5 - Transport Inc. Transport Inc. is a trucking company that operates in Northern Ontario and Western Canada. The widely fluctuating price of diesel fuel has made it increasingly difficult to manage costs, especially on fixed price contracts where they cannot levy fuel surcharges. In order to accurately forecast upcoming fuel expenses, they have decided to hedge next year's purchases in the futures market. The goal of the hedge is to minimize exposure to changing prices and provide stability to cash flows related to fuel expenses. There is no futures market for the diesel fuel used by their fleet of trucks, however the price of the heating oil futures traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange is highly correlated with the price of diesel fuel % Correlation 12 $USD/gallon $C/litre /5/21 25/8/22 23/11/23 2/2/25 21/5/26 19/8/27 NYMEX Heating Oil Thunder Bay Rack Price Heating Oil New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Trade Unit 42, gallons Point Description $.1 per gallon = US $42 per contract Contract Listing Each month out 4 years Trading Hours 9:am - 2:3pm (pit hours), 6:pm - 5:15pm (electronic hours) Minimum Fluctuation.1 cents per gallon = $4.2 per contract Margin per contract US $13,5

4 Transport Inc anticipates using 158, litres of diesel fuel each during each month of 2, which equates to roughly one heating oil futures contract per month. In order to manage the hedge, they will liquidate one contract every month at the same time they procure their monthly diesel requirement. Quarter Litres Gallons Contracts Contract Month Price Jan- 158, 41,744 1 Feb Feb- 158, 41,744 1 Mar Mar- 158, 41,744 1 Apr Apr- 158, 41,744 1 May May- 158, 41,744 1 Jun Jun- 158, 41,744 1 Jul Jul- 158, 41,744 1 Aug Aug- 158, 41,744 1 Sep Sep- 158, 41,744 1 Oct Oct- 158, 41,744 1 Nov Nov- 158, 41,744 1 Dec Dec- 158, 41,744 1 Jan Total 1,896, 5, Once the contracts have been purchased, Transport Inc. will receive a statement showing their positions. SCOTIA MCLEOD ACCOUNT NUMBER: 5 82C TRANSPORT INC FOSTER KOWAL FUTURES GROUP 87 HILL ST. N (416) THUNDER BAY ON P7A 5V6 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * O P E N P O S I T I O N S * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * TRADE LONG SHORT CONTRACT DESCRIPTION PRICE DEBIT/CREDIT /7/28 1 JAN HEATING OIL /7/28 1 FEB HEATING OIL /7/28 1 MAR HEATING OIL /7/28 1 APR HEATING OIL /7/28 1 MAY HEATING OIL /7/28 1 JUN HEATING OIL /7/28 1 JUL HEATING OIL /7/28 1 AUG HEATING OIL /7/28 1 SEP HEATING OIL /7/28 1 OCT HEATING OIL /7/28 1 NOV HEATING OIL /7/28 1 DEC HEATING OIL /7/28 1 JAN HEATING OIL COMMISSION FEES 162. DR DR ** US DOLLARS ** BEGINNING BALANCE 2,. COMMISSION 162. FEES INITIAL MARGIN REQUIREMENT 166,56. TOTAL EQUITY 199, ACCOUNT VALUE AT MARKET 199,823.35

5 If the price of diesel has gone up since the hedge was established, Transport Inc. will pay more for the fuel on the road, but will realize an offsetting profit on their futures transaction. On the other hand, if the price of diesel goes down they will pay less for their fuel on the road, and realize a loss on the futures transaction roughly equal to their savings. A successful hedge will not produce excess returns, but will protect the hedger against losses resulting from unanticipated price increases. Examples: April 12, 2 Exiting The Hedge The price of diesel has risen to $1.5/litre, up from $1.4 when the hedge was established. The 158, litres cost Transport Inc $237,, $72,68 more than had been anticipated. Meanwhile the price of May heating oil also increased from 3.538/gallon to 5.238/gallon, for a net profit of $71,4. Overall, Transport Inc. paid only $1,28 more than anticipated. Sep 14, 2 The price of diesel has fallen dramatically, now costing only $.86/litre. Transport Inc. pays $135,88 for its diesel, $28,44 less than had been expected. October heating oil has also fallen in price, from $3.5378/gallon to $2.8795/gallon. The loss on the futures transaction is $27, Overall, Transport Inc. saved only $791.4 when the price of diesel fuel declined.

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