Consultatio Asset Management

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Consultatio Asset Management"

Transcription

1

2 Consultatio Views View Macro Argentina View Badlar View FX SPOT View BCS Current government s legacy 2

3 View Macro Argentina: Macro Equation G + C + I + (X-M) = GDP (X-M) = GDP G C I Balance of Payments Current Account + Capital Account = Δ Reserves 0 = Current Account + Capital Account Δ Reserves 3

4 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap MOA and Primary products composition Soybean 41 Exports composition (in percentage) 2014 MOA 36.7 MOI, 35.2 Others 45 Other s, 52 MOI to Brazil, 48 Wheat 2 Corn 13 Primary Products, 23.6 Fuel and oil, 6.4 4

5 5 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Consultatio Asset Management View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Brazil Brazil Real Spot Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12

6 6 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 Consultatio Asset Management View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Brazil Brazil: GDP Private estimate BZ GDP % 14 BZ GDP % 15 BZ GDP % Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13

7 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Soybean 700 Dolar Index Soybean price USD x Tn Right Axes Mar 15 Oct 14 May 14 Dec 13 Jul 13 Feb 13 Sep 12 Apr 12 Nov 11 Jun 11 Jan 11 Aug 10 Mar 10 Oct 09 May 09 Dec 08 Jul 08 Feb 08 Sep 07 Apr 07 Nov 06 Jun 06 Jan 06

8 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Soybean Soybean Wheat Corn Agricultural production (Millions of tonns) / /05 Note: *Usda estimated 2005/ / / / / / / /13* 2013/2014* 2014/2015* 8

9 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap Balance of Payments (mill USD) Q Q Q Q est 2015 Assumptions: Total Public Debt Amortizations -3, , ,897-10,910 Roll Over (Multilateral and Treasury bills) 2, ,320 China Swap 2,300 1,250 1, ,950 Tel -4G- Inflows ,500 Others Components 1, , ,751 Capital Account 3,547 2,043 1, ,558-5,892 Goods 8, ,443 1, ,353 Services -5,812-1, ,400-1,566-5,505 Interest -4, , ,777-4,669 Dividends and Utilities -1, ,611 Others Current Account -2,351-2,297-1, ,065-8,189 Reserves 30,188 29,934 29,700 28,680 19,057 19,057 Macro FX +15% GDP -0.5% CPI +28% dic/dic Current Account Exports -12.5% $ M Soybean price $ 375 Imports -4.8% $ M Capital Account Portfolio Investment -$ 0M FDI +$ 1410 M Capital Flight - $ 5400 M 4G Inflows +$1500 M Issue YPF debt +$ 1250 CABA +$500 Reserves (with default payments) 31,443 31,358 31,666 30,814 21,733 21,733 Reserves (w/ Roll-Over 85% Boden 15) $ ,056 Reserves (w/ Roll-Over 50% Boden 15) $ ,864 Reserves (w/roll-over 20% Boden 15) $ ,985 9

10 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Primary Expenditures T12m YoY % May 03 Nestor Kirchner elected T12m (%GDP) Total Revenues ex Anses and BCRA tranfers T12m YoY Oct 07 Cristina Kirchner elected Oct 11 Cristina Kirchner elected 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Primary Result Primary Result (Excluding CB & ANSES) Fiscal Result Fiscal Result (excluding CB & ANSES) Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 10

11 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Tax Collection T12m %GDP May 03 Nestor Kirchner elected Oct 07 Cristina Kirchner elected Oct 11 Cristina Kirchner re-elected 15.0 Jan-03 Aug-03 Mar-04 Oct-04 May-05 Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 11

12 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Primary Expenditure Composition 2014 Goods and Services, 5% Universities, 3% Others, 7% Provinces, 7% Retirement pension, 34.2% Capital expenditure, 7% Wages, 13% Transfers to the private sector, 23% 12

13 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Q Q Q Q Interests payments $ 25,928 $ 7,712 $ 9,990 $ 7,309 $ 9,420 $ 34,432 Sov Bond ARS 37,670 3,483 1,925 3,231 1,784 10,422 Guaranteed Loans 3 1 1, ,057 Debt with provinces (BOGAR 2018 & 2020) 7, Debt with Banco Nacion (public sector) 19,104 3,952 3,785 3,785 3,785 15,308 Debt with Central Bank 162,775 24,892 36,438 13,795 33, ,014 Others 1, Amortizations $ 228,540 $ 32,345 $ 43,202 $ 20,831 $ 39,459 $ 135,837 Total Uses en $ $ 254,468 $ 40,057 $ 53,193 $ 28,139 $ 48,879 $ 170,269 Primary Surplus $ (172,776) $ (40,888) $ (62,392) $ (79,265) $ (101,701) (284,245) Roll Over 211,797 28,844 40,223 17,581 37, ,322 BCRA: roll-over 162,775 24,892 36,438 13,795 33, ,014 Banco Nacion: roll-over 19,104 3,952 3,785 3,785 3,785 15,308 Exchange Bonar , Issue Bocan , Bonar , Bonad 2016 y , Debt Private Issue 5,000-11,000 22,000 38,000 FGS Utilities 30,024 5,019 16,252 8, ,024 Total Funds ARS $ 122,878 $ (5,507) $ (4,912) $ (41,213) $ (41,083) $ (92,715) Pesos Gap ex BCRA $ 161,509 $ 45,565 $ 58,105 $ 69,352 $ 89,962 $ 262, Assumptions: Macro FX +15% GDP -0.5% CPI +28 dic/dic Primary Expenditures +40% YoY Revenues YoY +33% FGS Utilities ARS $ M Debt private issue $ M Primary deficit (ex anses) 4,9% Fiscal Deficit (ex anses) 6.5% 13

14 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Others Lebacs/Nobacs Pases / Redescuentos Public Sector External Source Inflation 300, , , , ,000 50, , , , est 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 14

15 Jan-15 Oct-14 Jul-14 Apr-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Consultatio Asset Management View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Monetary base YoY 60.0 Absorption $ M and Roll Over (58% BM) Oct-15 Jul-15 Apr Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09

16 Snapshot 16

17 View Badlar 55% (Banking Reserves+BCRA Absorption+Repo Operations)/Deposits 30% 50% Badlar Rate -Right axes- 25% 45% 20% 40% 35% 15% 30% % Credit to private sector (Ars) / Private deposit (time deposit) Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 17

18 Jan-98 Nov-98 Sep-99 Jul-00 May-01 Mar-02 Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 May-06 Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 View FX Spot TCR Multilateral TCRM BCRA 10 Y BCS Argentina FX Adjustm ents (Mar 15) 10Y -stdev +stdev BCS 18.48% -4.68% 41.65% Spot 57.73% 26.89% 88.58%

19 View FX Spot Dolar Oficial (Base=100) Jan Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec 19

20 View Blue Chip Swap 5500 Capital Flight (M USD) T12m Right axes Turismo y viajes - neto T12M (200) (400) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) Feb-02 Jan-03 Dec-03 Nov-04 Oct-05 Sep-06 Aug-07 Jul-08 Jun-09 May-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Dec-14 Source: BCRA 20

21 View Blue Chip Swap ARS IMP MEP ARS IMP BCS Capital Controls YPF Nationalization 20% tax on credit card use Cedin & Anses intervention Oct 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 May (5) (5) 21 Apr 15 Jan 15 Oct 14 Jul 14 Apr 14 Jan 14 Oct 13 Jul 13 Apr 13 Jan 13 Oct 12 Jul 12 Apr 12 Jan 12 Oct 11 Jul 11 Apr 11 Jan 11 Oct 10 Jul 10 Apr 10 Jan 10

22 Current government s legacy Highly regulated economic environment Economic imbalances high inflation, low international reserves, high fiscal deficit, strongly appreciated RER Health of financial and banking system Low international exposure to argentine financial assets Low Debt to GDP ratio Holdouts / default Capital controls (BCS) Low credibility of economic statistics 22

23 Current government s legacy: Bond Spreads vs Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg & IMF 23

24 Consultatio Asset Management

Analysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period

Analysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period Analysis One Code Desc Transaction Amount Fiscal Period 57.63 Oct-12 12.13 Oct-12-38.90 Oct-12-773.00 Oct-12-800.00 Oct-12-187.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-110.00 Oct-12-1115.25 Oct-12-71.00 Oct-12-41.00

More information

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum

3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum 3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist, Itaú Unibanco Partner, Itaú BBA August 30 th, 2012 In Brief World: consolidating a scenario of low growth. Slow recovery in the

More information

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016 Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the

More information

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 26, 2013 Contents 1 Taxonomy of capital inflows 2 Risks and the prevention of problems 3 Economic outlook 2 Like other

More information

Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138. Exhibit 8

Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138. Exhibit 8 Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138 Exhibit 8 Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 2 of 138 Domain Name: CELLULARVERISON.COM Updated Date: 12-dec-2007

More information

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México Santander EM Day, Macro & Corporates Conference London, 7 June 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation

More information

II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP

II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Real Sector: Growth, Economic Fluctuations and Inflation Workshop for Staff of Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar June 2 3, 2014

More information

El Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino Argentine Public Pension Fund

El Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino Argentine Public Pension Fund El Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino Argentine Public Pension Fund Recent social security history 1993 September 2007 June Creation of Private Fully Funded

More information

Enhanced Vessel Traffic Management System Booking Slots Available and Vessels Booked per Day From 12-JAN-2016 To 30-JUN-2017

Enhanced Vessel Traffic Management System Booking Slots Available and Vessels Booked per Day From 12-JAN-2016 To 30-JUN-2017 From -JAN- To -JUN- -JAN- VIRP Page Period Period Period -JAN- 8 -JAN- 8 9 -JAN- 8 8 -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- 8-JAN- 9-JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- 8-JAN- 9-JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -FEB- : days

More information

Ghana's Economic Performance 2010

Ghana's Economic Performance 2010 GHANA STATISTICAL SERVICE (GSS) Statistics for Development and Progress Ghana's Economic Performance 21 i n f i g u r e s P.O. Box GP 198, Accra www. statsghana.gov.gh 211 Ghana's Economic Performance

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

Banco Santander Chile: Solid results in 2Q14. Sound outlook for 2015

Banco Santander Chile: Solid results in 2Q14. Sound outlook for 2015 0 Banco Santander : Solid results in 2Q14. Sound outlook for 2015 August 2014 Important information 1 Banco Santander caution that this presentation contains forward looking statements within the meaning

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

LEBANON'S DEBT MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

LEBANON'S DEBT MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK LEBANON'S DEBT MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR 2010-2015 MARCH 2010 For further information, please contact: 1 DEBT MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR 2010-2015 CONTENTS I. Purpose of the report... 5 II. Regulatory framework...

More information

MGE#12 The Balance of Payments

MGE#12 The Balance of Payments MGE#12 The Balance of Payments The Current Account, the Capital Account and the Balance of Payments Introduction to the Foreign Exchange Market Savings, Investment and the Current Account 1 From last session

More information

Consumer prices and the money supply

Consumer prices and the money supply Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen.

More information

Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia

Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva, Ph.D., First Deputy Governor Geneva, February 25 2 Inflation Targeting in Russia: Motivation & Challenges Motivation: Unanchored inflation Expectations

More information

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014 Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

Greek banks and corporate funding costs

Greek banks and corporate funding costs NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE Greek banks and corporate funding costs January 214 Paul Mylonas CRO & Chief Economist National Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT Economic Analysis Department Roadmap

More information

Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015 Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate Wednesday, August 12, 2015 WHAT HAVE CHINESE POLICY MAKERS DONE IN REGARD TO SETTING THEIR EXCHANGE RATE? Each day at 9.15am in Beijing the People s Bank of China

More information

The table below shows Capita Asset Services forecast of the expected movement in medium term interest rates:

The table below shows Capita Asset Services forecast of the expected movement in medium term interest rates: Annex A Forecast of interest rates as at September 2015 The table below shows Capita Asset Services forecast of the expected movement in medium term interest rates: NOW Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

More information

Treasury Presentation to TBAC

Treasury Presentation to TBAC Treasury Presentation to TBAC Office of Debt Management Fiscal Year 2015 Q1 Report Table of Contents I. Fiscal II. A. Quarterly Tax Receipts p. 4 B. Monthly Receipt Levels p. 5 C. Eleven Largest Outlays

More information

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Indonesia s s Case

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Indonesia s s Case Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Indonesia s s Case Hartadi A. Sarwono, Deputy Governor Paper presented at The OECD-CCBS CCBS Seminar on Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets,, Paris, 28 February 2007.

More information

Ashley Institute of Training Schedule of VET Tuition Fees 2015

Ashley Institute of Training Schedule of VET Tuition Fees 2015 Ashley Institute of Training Schedule of VET Fees Year of Study Group ID:DECE15G1 Total Course Fees $ 12,000 29-Aug- 17-Oct- 50 14-Sep- 0.167 blended various $2,000 CHC02 Best practice 24-Oct- 12-Dec-

More information

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2012

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2012 Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 212 19 October 212 1 Summary third quarter Strong results and cash flow Yara-produced NPK deliveries up 1% Strong production increase Cautious start to European

More information

TABLE OF CONTENTS. 1. Evolution of the Macroeconomic Context... 3. 2. Evolution of the Microeconomic Activity... 11

TABLE OF CONTENTS. 1. Evolution of the Macroeconomic Context... 3. 2. Evolution of the Microeconomic Activity... 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Evolution of the Macroeconomic Context... 3 1.1. Real Sector... 3 1.2. Public Sector... 5 1.3. Monetary System and Money Market... 6 1.4. External Sector and Foreign Exchange Market...

More information

Brazil Economic Outlook

Brazil Economic Outlook Brazil Economic Outlook London School of Economics Alexandre Tombini Governor January 2014 1 Brazil overview Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and GDP Brazil has vast

More information

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY PAIRS CURRENCY GUIDE

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY PAIRS CURRENCY GUIDE EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY PAIRS CURRENCY GUIDE /MXN /Mexico 14.597/12.548 168.8 14.5500 14.2500 13.9500 13.7000 13.4000 13.1000 12.7767 JAN 9 FEB 28 APR 21 JUN 11 JUL 30 SEP 18 NOV 7 12.5500 The /MXN is

More information

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 15 April 2016 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Macroeconomic Policy in Mexico 3 Evolution and Outlook

More information

2Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results

2Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results 2Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results IFRS September 2015 Disclaimer Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. ( Grupo Aval ) is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States, registered with Colombia

More information

Financial Statement Consolidation

Financial Statement Consolidation Financial Statement Consolidation We will consolidate the previously completed worksheets in this financial plan. In order to complete this section of the plan, you must have already completed all of the

More information

Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices

Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices J O S E P H W. G L A U B E R U S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E M A R I O J. M I R A N D A T H E O H I O S T A T E U

More information

Debt Market Outlook - 2015

Debt Market Outlook - 2015 Debt Market Outlook - 2015 DEBT MARKET PERFORMANCE IN 2014 The Indian bond market saw a sharp rally in H2 of CY 14, inspite of absence of rate cuts. The bond market rallied due to the following factors.

More information

DenizBank Economic Update

DenizBank Economic Update November, 211 Economy Financial Markets Banking Sector Focus Current Account Deficit Worries Unfounded Economic Research and Strategy Saruhan Özel, Ph.D. Ercan Ergüzel Berke Gümüş Doğukan Ulusoy 1 External

More information

Annual Borrowing Plan

Annual Borrowing Plan 20154 Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Ministry of Finance Annual Borrowing Plan 2016 January 2016 www.fmf.gov.ba INTRODUCTION In order to increase transparency, fiscal

More information

Capturing Growth Opportunities

Capturing Growth Opportunities Capturing Growth Opportunities Macroeconomic update Speaker: Archil Gachechiladze, Group CFO Hungary Czech Republic Latvia Poland Lithuania 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

More information

10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS

10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS 10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS AGENDA 1. Perú Macro Environment 2. The need for a Pension System Reform 3. The Private Pension System 4. AFP Integra 5. Multifondos 6. The Future 1 1. Peru - Macro

More information

May 2014 Texas School Bond Elections

May 2014 Texas School Bond Elections May 2014 Texas School Bond Elections What are the individual districts needs? New facilities Renovations Technology Central facilities How much tax revenue can the district generate? Depends on district

More information

1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results

1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results 1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results Colombian Banking GAAP and IFRS June 2015 Disclaimer Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. ( Grupo Aval ) is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States,

More information

Republic of Costa Rica: Summary Bond Terms

Republic of Costa Rica: Summary Bond Terms Republic of Costa Rica: Summary Bond Terms Costa Rica Bonds 6.548%, 2014 9.995%, 2020 4.25%, 2023 Issuer Republic of Costa Rica Currency USD Issue Date January 12, 2004 July 20, 2000 November 16, 2012

More information

Restructuring of Sistema s Portfolio in the Current Market Conditions

Restructuring of Sistema s Portfolio in the Current Market Conditions Restructuring of Sistema s Portfolio in the Current Market Conditions Leonid Melamed President, Chief Executive Officer Alexey Buyanov Senior Vice President, Head of Finance and Investment Anton Abugov

More information

OPERATING FUND. PRELIMINARY & UNAUDITED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS September 30, 2015 RENDELL L. JONES CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

OPERATING FUND. PRELIMINARY & UNAUDITED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS September 30, 2015 RENDELL L. JONES CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER PRELIMINARY & UNAUDITED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS September 30, 2015 RENDELL L. JONES CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW September 30, 2015 Balance Sheet Cash and cash equivalents had a month-end balance

More information

An Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013

An Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013 An Overview of Offshore RMB Market Nov 2013 Contents 1. Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 2. Implications for Offshore RMB Bonds 2 Section 1 Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 3 RMB The next international

More information

BRE Bank Group Total Assets. GDP, consumption and investment dynamics

BRE Bank Group Total Assets. GDP, consumption and investment dynamics 100 90 80 BRE Bank Group Total Assets PLN B 82.6 81.0 90.0 98.9 70 60 55.9 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.6 4.1 6.2 14.4 16.2 11.0 30.5 30.5 32.7 27.4 24.8 42.3 1987 1988 1989 1990

More information

Monthly Update. January 2014

Monthly Update. January 2014 Monthly Update Politics On the 29 th of January, the President of the Republic of Serbia Mr. Tomislav Nikolic called for earlier Parliamentary elections for the 16 th of March 2014, in order to speed up

More information

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON

More information

CAFIS REPORT 2015.10

CAFIS REPORT 2015.10 CAFIS REPORT 2015.10 INDEX Message CAFIS Inbound 03-06 07-08 CAFIS Arch 09-10 CAFIS Brain 11-12 CAFIS Global 13-14 What We Do 15-16 About CAFIS 17-18 Services for Member Stores 19-34 Services for Card

More information

CENTERPOINT ENERGY TEXARKANA SERVICE AREA GAS SUPPLY RATE (GSR) JULY 2015. Small Commercial Service (SCS-1) GSR

CENTERPOINT ENERGY TEXARKANA SERVICE AREA GAS SUPPLY RATE (GSR) JULY 2015. Small Commercial Service (SCS-1) GSR JULY 2015 Area (RS-1) GSR GSR (LCS-1) Texarkana Incorporated July-15 $0.50690/Ccf $0.45450/Ccf $0.00000/Ccf $2.85090/MMBtu $17.52070/MMBtu Texarkana Unincorporated July-15 $0.56370/Ccf $0.26110/Ccf $1.66900/Ccf

More information

MARCH 2015 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT & FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROL DIRECTIVES

MARCH 2015 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT & FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROL DIRECTIVES MARCH 2015 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT & FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROL DIRECTIVES Mr. LOI M. BAKANI GOVERNOR BANK OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA Lae Chamber of Commerce and Industry Thursday 9 th April 2015 Presentation

More information

Loi M Bakani: Commodity and food prices, inflation and monetary policy in Papua New Guinea

Loi M Bakani: Commodity and food prices, inflation and monetary policy in Papua New Guinea Loi M Bakani: Commodity and food prices, inflation and monetary policy in Papua New Guinea Presentation by Mr Loi M Bakani, Governor of the Bank of Papua New Guinea, to the National Research Institute

More information

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,

More information

Japan s Economic Challenges

Japan s Economic Challenges Japan s Economic Challenges LUC EVERAERT ASIA PACIFIC DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO JANUARY 18, 216 1 Global Overview I. Global outlook and risks II. Prospects for Japan III.

More information

Yara International ASA First quarter results 2009. 28 April 2009

Yara International ASA First quarter results 2009. 28 April 2009 Yara International ASA First quarter results 29 28 April 29 1 Summary first quarter 29 Strong cash flow Significant on-going operating capital release Reduced margins despite lower energy costs Sales volumes

More information

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund. 2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil

More information

Portugal s Adjustment Program: Where are We?

Portugal s Adjustment Program: Where are We? Portugal s Adjustment Program: Where are We? Albert Jaeger International Monetary Fund Presentation: Austrian Business Circle Lisbon, January 24, 2014 Overview Looking back: Four questions Growth and unemployment:

More information

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr USDA didn t do much to help the corn market in its May 10 reports other than give soybeans a big lift. That could

More information

Need to know finance

Need to know finance Need to know finance You can t hide from it Every decision has financial implications Estimating sales and cost of sales (aka direct costs) Gross Profit and Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Sales cost of sales

More information

Detailed guidance for employers

Detailed guidance for employers April 2015 3 Detailed guidance for employers Appendix A: Pay reference periods This document accompanies: Detailed guidance no. 3 Assessing the workforce Pay reference period calendars where the definition

More information

Q1 2016. Kuwait Quarterly Monitor

Q1 2016. Kuwait Quarterly Monitor Q1 1 Kuwait Quarterly Monitor Asiya Research at a glance Every month, we provide: 1) Macroeconomic outlook. ) Analysis of all countries in Asia and GCC, and some key industrialized economies. 3) Trading

More information

Public Debt Management

Public Debt Management Public Debt Management quarterly report Apr-Jun 2010 Government of India Ministry of finance Department of economic affairs September 2010 www.finmin.nic.in CONTENTS Section Page No. Introduction 1 1 Macroeconomic

More information

NATIONAL CREDIT UNION SHARE INSURANCE FUND

NATIONAL CREDIT UNION SHARE INSURANCE FUND NATIONAL CREDIT UNION SHARE INSURANCE FUND PRELIMINARY & UNAUDITED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS RENDELL L. JONES CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW Balance Sheet Other - Insurance and Guarantee Program

More information

CENTRAL BANK OF SEYCHELLES

CENTRAL BANK OF SEYCHELLES CENTRAL BANK OF SEYCHELLES MONTHLY REVIEW August 2013 1.0 Key Economic Developments August 2013 observed a slight monthly pick-up of 0.5 per cent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which was primarily associated

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 214 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Why rapid debt growth in China might be a risk Is China facing an imminent financial crisis? The rapid expansion of credit in China since

More information

ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1

ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1 ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1 2016 Q1 Recent Developments in the Economy Binler Global Outlook Main Indicators of Turkey US EA Moderate expansion in the US economy Solid labor market data Still

More information

HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund

HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund Important information: HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund (the Fund ) invests primarily in a broad range of higher yielding Asian fixed income securities and instruments. Investments of the Fund may include

More information

Consumer ID Theft Total Costs

Consumer ID Theft Total Costs Billions Consumer and Business Identity Theft Statistics Business identity (ID) theft is a growing crime and is a growing concern for state filing offices. Similar to consumer ID theft, after initially

More information

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds Peter R. Duffy, CFA, Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager Navy Yard Corporate Center, Three Crescent Drive, Suite 400, Philadelphia, PA 19112 www.penncapital.com 1 What

More information

Country Background Sri Lanka. Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010

Country Background Sri Lanka. Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010 Country Background Sri Lanka Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010 Macro Economic data 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 GDP growth 6.0 (1.5) 4.0 5.9 5.4 6.2 7.7 6.8 6.0

More information

LGIP QUARTERLY MEETING & CONFERENCE CALL

LGIP QUARTERLY MEETING & CONFERENCE CALL LGIP QUARTERLY MEETING & CONFERENCE CALL 7.26.2012 OFFICE OF THE ARIZONA STATE TREASURER AGENDA LGIP Performance Endowment Performance Endowment Distribution Formula State Cash Flow Guest Presentation:

More information

P/T 2B: 2 nd Half of Term (8 weeks) Start: 25-AUG-2014 End: 19-OCT-2014 Start: 20-OCT-2014 End: 14-DEC-2014

P/T 2B: 2 nd Half of Term (8 weeks) Start: 25-AUG-2014 End: 19-OCT-2014 Start: 20-OCT-2014 End: 14-DEC-2014 2014-2015 SPECIAL TERM ACADEMIC CALENDAR FOR SCRANTON EDUCATION ONLINE (SEOL), MBA ONLINE, HUMAN RESOURCES ONLINE, NURSE ANESTHESIA and ERP PROGRAMS SPECIAL FALL 2014 TERM Key: P/T = Part of Term P/T Description

More information

P/T 2B: 2 nd Half of Term (8 weeks) Start: 26-AUG-2013 End: 20-OCT-2013 Start: 21-OCT-2013 End: 15-DEC-2013

P/T 2B: 2 nd Half of Term (8 weeks) Start: 26-AUG-2013 End: 20-OCT-2013 Start: 21-OCT-2013 End: 15-DEC-2013 2013-2014 SPECIAL TERM ACADEMIC CALENDAR FOR SCRANTON EDUCATION ONLINE (SEOL), MBA ONLINE, HUMAN RESOURCES ONLINE, NURSE ANESTHESIA and ERP PROGRAMS SPECIAL FALL 2013 TERM Key: P/T = Part of Term P/T Description

More information

FINANCIAL RESULTS Q1 2016

FINANCIAL RESULTS Q1 2016 FINANCIAL RESULTS Q1 2016 CFO Hallvard Granheim 28 th April 2016 Highlights Q1 Increase in underlying results (EBITDA) - Nordic prices are down 15% Q-on-Q - High production from Nordic hydropower assets

More information

1. Introduction. 2. User Instructions. 2.1 Set-up

1. Introduction. 2. User Instructions. 2.1 Set-up 1. Introduction The Lead Generation Plan & Budget Template allows the user to quickly generate a Lead Generation Plan and Budget. Up to 10 Lead Generation Categories, typically email, telemarketing, advertising,

More information

Brazil Economic Overview

Brazil Economic Overview Brazil Economic Overview New York Alexandre Tombini Governor February 2013 1 Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development Macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policies and strong

More information

P/T 2B: 2 nd Half of Term (8 weeks) Start: 24-AUG-2015 End: 18-OCT-2015 Start: 19-OCT-2015 End: 13-DEC-2015

P/T 2B: 2 nd Half of Term (8 weeks) Start: 24-AUG-2015 End: 18-OCT-2015 Start: 19-OCT-2015 End: 13-DEC-2015 2015-2016 SPECIAL TERM ACADEMIC CALENDAR For Scranton Education Online (SEOL), Masters of Business Administration Online, Masters of Accountancy Online, Health Administration Online, Health Informatics

More information

Hedging Foreign Exchange Rate Risk with CME FX Futures Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar

Hedging Foreign Exchange Rate Risk with CME FX Futures Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar Hedging Foreign Exchange Rate Risk with CME FX Futures Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar CME FX futures provide agricultural producers with the liquid, efficient tools to hedge against exchange rate risk

More information

Restoring Debt Sustainability through Debt Restructuring

Restoring Debt Sustainability through Debt Restructuring Restoring Debt Sustainability through Debt Restructuring JOINT COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT/CARADEM FORUM 2013 IBEROSTAR ROSEHALL, MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA Pamella McLaren Outline Debt Sustainability Jamaica Debt

More information

Financial Summary 3rd quarter of FY2012. January 29, 2013 Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc.

Financial Summary 3rd quarter of FY2012. January 29, 2013 Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. Financial Summary FY2012 January 29, 2013 Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. Contents 1. Summary of the FY2012 Results 2. Electricity Sales 3. Large Industry Sector 4. Electricity Generated and Purchased,

More information

Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets

Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets PSEi vs MSCI All Country World Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 PSEi +17.7% MSCI+12.2% Two common questions Is this insanity? Or is this sustainable?

More information

The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011

The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011 The economic outlook for Norway Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China Sources: IMF and Norges Bank GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China

More information

Q1 2016. Qatar Quarterly Monitor

Q1 2016. Qatar Quarterly Monitor Q1 216 Qatar Quarterly Monitor Asiya Research at a glance 2 Every month, we provide: 1) Macroeconomic outlook. 2) Analysis of all countries in Asia and GCC, and some key industrialized economies. 3) Trading

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

Minsky, Financial Governance, Banking, and Financial Instability in Brazil

Minsky, Financial Governance, Banking, and Financial Instability in Brazil Minsky, Financial Governance, Banking, and Financial Instability in Brazil FELIPE REZENDE, PH.D., Research Scholar, NY, USA Remarks Prepared For The Conference: Financial Governance After The Crisis cosponsored

More information

Macroeconomic Management With Open Capital Accounts

Macroeconomic Management With Open Capital Accounts Macroeconomic Management With Open Capital Accounts György Szapáry Central Bank of Hungary IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute Seminar, Crisis Prevention in Emerging kets, Singapore, y 1-11, Introduction

More information

Reacting to the Challenges: Business Strategies for Future Success. Todd S. Adams, Chief Executive Officer Adams Bank & Trust Ogallala, Nebraska

Reacting to the Challenges: Business Strategies for Future Success. Todd S. Adams, Chief Executive Officer Adams Bank & Trust Ogallala, Nebraska Reacting to the Challenges: Business Strategies for Future Success Todd S. Adams, Chief Executive Officer Adams Bank & Trust Ogallala, Nebraska Adams Bank & Trust Family Owned for 95 Years $525 Million

More information

BBVA Colombia. Working for a better future for people

BBVA Colombia. Working for a better future for people BBVA Colombia Working for a better future for people 2013 The IR Recognition granted by Bolsa de Valores de Colombia S.A. (the Colombian Stock Exchange) is not a certification of the registered securities

More information

Canadian Life Insurance Industry

Canadian Life Insurance Industry A.M. Best Company s 9 th Annual Insurance Market Briefing Canada Canadian Life Insurance Industry Edward Kohlberg, CPA, FLMI Senior Financial Analyst Richard McMillan Senior Financial Analyst September

More information

Money market portfolio

Money market portfolio 1 Money market portfolio April 11 Management of Norges Bank s money market portfolio Report for the fourth quarter 1 Contents 1 Key figures Market value and return 3 3 Market risk and management guidelines

More information

April/2014 ISSN 2367-5020. May/2014 BULGARIAN ECONOMY. June/2014. Monthly Report. July/2014. August/2014. September/2014. October/2014.

April/2014 ISSN 2367-5020. May/2014 BULGARIAN ECONOMY. June/2014. Monthly Report. July/2014. August/2014. September/2014. October/2014. April/214 ISSN 2367-52 May/214 BULGARIAN ECONOMY Monthly Report June/214 July/214 August/214 September/214 October/214 November/214 December/214 BULGARIAN ECONOMY Monthly Report April/214 This issue of

More information

OTP Bank. 2004 Preliminary Performance Based on HAR

OTP Bank. 2004 Preliminary Performance Based on HAR 2 Preliminary Performance Based on HAR Presented by: Dr. Zoltán Spéder CFO March 25 Forward looking statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial

More information

Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University

Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University Buying weaned pigs, corn, and soybean meal and selling hogs at discrete times throughout the year exposes wean to

More information

Presentation on Results for FY 2015. Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. May 10, 2016

Presentation on Results for FY 2015. Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. May 10, 2016 Presentation on Results for FY 2015 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. May 10, 2016 Table of Contents 1. FY 2015 Financials (1) Overview (2) Segment Information 2. Forecast for FY 2016 Performance (1) Overview (2)

More information

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it

More information

Second Quarter 2015 Trading Update. 28 September 2015

Second Quarter 2015 Trading Update. 28 September 2015 Second Quarter 2015 Trading Update 28 September 2015 Disclaimer This communication and the information contained herein has been approved by the Board of Directors of Eurobank Ergasias S.A. ( Eurobank

More information

2014 Asia Securities Forum Presented by the Korea Financial Investment Association

2014 Asia Securities Forum Presented by the Korea Financial Investment Association 2014 Asia Securities Forum Presented by the K O R E A I. Korean Capital Market I. Current Status II. Prospects II. Korean Financial Investment Industry C O N T E N T S III. Capital Market Regulations 2

More information

Vietnam. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Vietnam. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Herald van der Linde* Head of Equity Strategy, Asia-Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +82 2996 67 heraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hk Devendra Joshi* Equity Strategy The Hongkong

More information

Audited Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2014. December 9, 2014

Audited Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2014. December 9, 2014 Audited Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2014 December 9, 2014 1 Cherry Bekaert Comments FY 2014 Audited Financial Statements Entity Wide Statements GASB 34 General Fund School Operating

More information