1 February 27, 2014 Informa Economics South American Crop Reporting Service Brazil February Production Update and Weekly Crop Condition Report The Informa Economics staff in Brazil conducted its survey between February 19 and February 26. The survey asked soybean and main corn yields as well as winter corn planting intentions. Survey respondents indicated a 2013/14 soybean production of 88.8 million tonnes, which is down 900 thousand from Informa s previous forecast. All corn production is projected at million tonnes, 1.1 million less than Informa s previous forecast consisting of 30.2 million tonnes of main corn and 35.2 million tonnes of winter corn. Winter corn area is expected to decline 13 percent, totaling 7.8 million hectares, which is unchanged from Informa s previous projection. CONAB is expected to issue its next report on the morning of March 12. USDA s World Agricultural Outlook Board will issue its next estimates on March /14 Soybean Production Reduced 900,000 Tonnes Informa projects Brazil s 2013/14 soybean production at 88.8 million tonnes, 900 thousand below Informa s previous forecast, but, if realized, would be 7.3 million tonnes above last year. Informa s soybean forecast is 1.2 million below both CONAB s forecast issued February 11 and USDA s February 10 forecast. Informa s forecast is also 200 thousand above the Brazil s Association of Oilseed Processors (ABIOVE) latest forecast. Given the significant drop in winter corn area expected this year, farmers are reportedly planting second-crop soybeans. The main states that are expected to plant second-crop soybeans are Mato Grosso, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo. Second crop soybean production is expected to total about 800 thousand tonnes, or nearly 1 percent of the 88.8-million-tonne total soybean production forecast. Informa forecasts the 2013/14 soybean yield to average 2.99 tonnes/hectare, which would be about two percent above last year. Compared with Informa s previous forecast, the bulk of the yield reduction occurred in Parana with a slight reduction in Goias. Tempering these reductions were slight increases in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Brazil s soybean harvest is currently 40 percent complete, which is slightly ahead of last year s 37 percent but is about one week ahead of the 27 percent normally collected by this date. Soybean harvest in the Center West is just over half complete with Parana s harvest just under 50 percent. Rio Grande do Sul soybean harvest has not yet started but about 5 percent of the crop is shedding leaves and about 25 percent is blooming with the balance of the state s soybeans filling pods. 775 Ridge Lake Boulevard, Suite 400 ~ Memphis, Tennessee ~ Telephone ~ Fax
2 February 27, 2014 Page 2 Rio Grande do Sul Soybean Condition Unchanged Soybean condition in Rio Grande do Sul is unchanged since last week with 87 percent rated in good condition. The state received about two inches of rain over the last seven days as well as temperatures that averaged close to normal. Rainfall over the coming seven days is forecast to range between one and two inches, which, if it occurs, could result in a boost in the state s condition rating. The other states normally included in the condition report were not included given that half or more of their soybeans have been harvested. Rio Grande do Sul Soybean Condition (in percent) Indexed Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Value Feb. 06, Feb. 13, Feb. 20, Feb. 27, Prev. Year Rio Grande do Sul Soybean Condition 94 Condition Index / / Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec 2-Jan 9-Jan 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb 6-Mar 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 3-Apr Corn Production Reduced 1.1 Million Tonnes Brazil s 2013/14 all corn production is projected at million tonnes, 1.1 million less than Informa s previous forecast, and, if realized, would be 15.5 million below last year. Informa s all corn forecast is 10.0 million tonnes below CONAB s all corn projection issued February 11 and 5.6 million tonnes below USDA s February 10 forecast.
3 February 27, 2014 Page 3 Informa forecasts 2013/14 main corn harvest at 30.2 million tonnes, which is down 1.1 million from its previous forecast, and, if realized, would be 4.6 million below last year. Main corn yields are forecast to average 4.68 tonnes per hectare, which would be 8.4 percent below last season. The largest reductions in yields occurred in Minas Gerais and Bahia with lower yields also indicated in Goias and Parana. 000 Tonnes 41,000 39,000 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 Main Corn Production Informa s winter corn area survey continued to indicate a 13 percent decline in plantings. The 2013/14 winter corn area is expected to total 7.8 million hectares, which is unchanged from last month and production is forecast at 35.2 million tonnes. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture Supply Department (CONAB) issued its first estimate for 2013/14 winter corn plantings on February 11 at 8.55 million hectares, which represented a 4.8 percent reduction from last year. CONAB s February winter corn area projection has averaged a 10 percent error versus the final over the last 10 years. CONAB s upcoming March winter corn area estimate has averaged a 9 percent error. Winter corn plantings in Mato Grosso are estimated to be 75 percent complete as of February 27, which is equal to average but about three days behind last year when 84 percent had been planted by that date. Parana is expected to have 70 percent of its winter corn planted by March 3, which would be one week ahead of the 55 percent average but would be equal to last year. WTM:blg This copyrighted material is intended for the use of clients of Informa Economics, Inc., only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Informa Economics, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable and the views expressed within this document reflect judgments at this time and are subject to change without notice. Informa Economics, Inc. does not guarantee that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
10 February 27, 2014 Page 10 Soybeans - Area, Brazil, by States (000 hectares) Roramina Para Rondonia Tocantins Maranhao Piaui Bahia ,015 1,044 1,113 1,280 1,274 Minas Gerais ,020 1,024 1,024 1,120 1,259 Sao Paulo Mato Grosso 5,675 5,828 6,185 6,400 6,980 7,820 8,436 Mato Grosso do Sul 1,731 1,716 1,710 1,760 1,815 2,020 2,120 Goias 2,180 2,307 2,460 2,605 2,645 2,890 3,090 Federal District Parana 3,977 4,069 4,504 4,590 4,461 4,750 4,998 Santa Catarina Rio Grande do Sul 3,834 3,822 3,975 4,084 4,197 4,620 4,885 Brazil 21,318 21,750 23,350 24,173 25,042 27,737 29,660 Soybeans - Yield, Brazil, by States (tonnes/ha) Roramina Para Rondonia Tocantins Maranhao Piaui Bahia Minas Gerais Sao Paulo Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Goias Federal District Parana Santa Catarina Rio Grande do Sul Brazil Soybeans - Production, Brazil, by States (000 tonnes) Roramina Para Rondonia Tocantins ,071 1,210 1,395 1,536 1,905 Maranhao 1, ,331 1,600 1,715 1,686 1,800 Piaui ,144 1, ,700 Bahia 2,748 2,418 3,111 3,507 3,275 2,692 3,650 Minas Gerais 2,540 2,774 2,870 2,914 3,120 3,375 3,800 Sao Paulo 1,446 1,306 1,586 1,708 1,710 2,051 2,130 Mato Grosso 17,845 17,950 18,770 20,412 22,170 23,533 26,800 Mato Grosso do Sul 4,569 4,180 5,310 5,170 4,735 5,809 6,085 Goias 6,544 6,836 7,345 8,182 8,590 8,563 9,415 Federal District Parana 11,896 9,510 14,080 15,420 11,145 15,912 15,400 Santa Catarina ,345 1,489 1,125 1,578 1,710 Rio Grande do Sul 7,775 7,913 10,220 11,621 6,680 12,535 13,000 Brazil 60,018 57,200 68,700 75,300 67,900 81,499 88,800 Informa's projections are bold. Feb 27, 2014
11 February 27, 2014 Page 11 BRAZIL: Soybeans, Percent Area Harvested Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May Crop Year/State /11 Rio Grande do Sul Parana Mato Grosso do Sul Mato Grosso Goias Sao Paulo Minas Gerais Bahia Santa Catarina Other Total Brazil /12 Rio Grande do Sul Parana Mato Grosso do Sul Mato Grosso Goias Sao Paulo Minas Gerais Bahia Santa Catarina Other Total Brazil /13 Rio Grande do Sul Parana Mato Grosso do Sul Mato Grosso Goias Sao Paulo Minas Gerais Bahia Santa Catarina Other Total Brazil /14 Rio Grande do Sul Parana Mato Grosso do Sul Mato Grosso Goias Sao Paulo Minas Gerais Bahia Santa Catarina Other Total Brazil Year Average Rio Grande do Sul Parana Mato Grosso do Sul Mato Grosso Goias Sao Paulo Minas Gerais Bahia Santa Catarina Other Total Brazil Informa estimates in bold. Feb 27, 2014
12 February 27, 2014 Page 12 Brazil Soybean Production Map Brazil Soybean Harvest Progress 5-Year Average with Comparisons Percent Complete Yr Range 5-Year Average Jan 24 Jan 31 Feb 07 Feb 14 Feb 21 Feb 28 Mar 07 Mar 14 Mar 21 Mar 28 Apr 04 Apr 11 Apr 18 Apr 25 May / / / /14
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15 February 27, 2014 Page Brazil Soybeans Normal Monthly Precip with Comparisons Milimeters Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 20-Yr Range NORMAL 2010/ / / /14
16 February 27, 2014 Page 16 Brazil: Political Boundaries PB PE Region cod. States Region cod. States North Northeast AC Acre DF Distrito Federal AM Amazonas GO Goiás Centre-West AP Amapá MS Mato Grosso do Sul PA Pará MT Mato Grosso RO Rondônia ES Espírito Santo RR Roraima MG Minas Gerais Southeast TO Tocantins RJ Rio de Janeiro AL Alagoas SP São Paulo BA Bahia PR Paraná CE Ceará South RS Rio Grande do Sul MA Maranhão SC Santa Catarina PB Paraiba PE Pernambuco PI Piauí Source: RAT Land Market Analysis RN Rio Grande do Norte Informa Economics FNP SE Sergipe
17 February 27, 2014 Page 17 This copyrighted material is intended for the use of clients of Informa Economics, Inc., only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Informa Economics, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable and the views expressed within this document reflect judgments at this time and are subject to change without notice. Informa Economics, Inc. does not guarantee that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
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