Commodity Price Outlook & Risks

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1 Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team January, 2 This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities as depicted from futures and options markets. Outlook. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil spot prices continued their declining trend and are now around 3 dollars. However, futures market point to a modest increase over the next year. Risks to its outlook include subdued aggregate demand growth, sustained production growth and geopolitical risks. In addition, risk off atmosphere in financial markets can pressure oil prices as it can further reduce oil demand if world growth falters. Gasoline prices are still expected to follow seasonal patterns, as they will rise through the summer and decline in the colder months. U.S. natural gas prices are still projected to rise on the coming months. Metal prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged on continued slow demand and general ample supply. Agricultural prices are expected to generally increase on weather concerns mainly related to the current El Nino event. Risks. The likelihood of per-barrel prices for WTI falling below $2 in the next months rose to 5 percent from 2 percent, and the likelihood of Brent falling below $2 increased to percent, about percentage points higher than last month. The likelihood of WTI and Brent oil prices rising above $6 decreased, signaling a downward shift in the balance of risks. The likelihood of per-mmbtu U.S. natural gas prices below $1.5 ( months forward) decreased to 2 percent, while the probability of prices rising above $3.5 increased to 9 percent from 3 percent, suggesting an upward shift in price uncertainty. For metals, the risk of copper prices falling below $1 a pound remained broadly unchanged at 2 percent, and the probability of prices increasing above $3 a pound dropped to 3 percent from 5 percent, amid weak demand, particularly from China. The probability of gold prices falling below $8 a troy ounce decreased to 4 percent from 6 percent, while the probability of an increase beyond $ increased to percent from 7 percent last month. The likelihood of per bushel corn prices below $2.5 increased to 9 percent from 4 percent, while the probability of prices increasing above $5 decreased to 5 percent from 8 percent in December. The likelihood of soybean meal prices rising above $35 a short ton remained broadly unchanged at percent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of perbushel soybean prices below $6 increased to percent from 7 percent, and the probability of an increase above $ decreased to 18 percent from 2 percent, partly reflecting high level of stocks. Contents. Fan charts (pages 2-3) show historical and forward futures prices (red line), with calculated confidence intervals of +/- 2 standard deviations (in purple/blue). Confidence intervals are derived from prices of options on January, 2. Likelihoods of spot prices rising/falling from specified price thresholds occurring at the 3-, 6-, 9- and -month forward (or closest available) horizons for each commodity are shown in tabular form (pages 4-5). In addition to price thresholds, the probability of each commodity spot price rising/falling by a certain percentage is shown (pages 6-7). Relevant contract specifications for each commodity are also shown (page 8). 1

2 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil (U.S. dollars a barrel) (U.S. dollars a barrel) Natural Gas Gasoline (U.S. dollars a MMBtu) 8 (U.S. cents a gallon) Gold Copper (U.S. cents a pound) (U.S. dollars a troy ounce)

3 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks (concluded) Coffee Corn (U.S. cents a bushel) 9 (U.S. cents a pound) Rough Rice Wheat (U.S. cents a hundredweight) 2 (U.S. cents a bushel) Soybean Meal Soybeans (U.S. cents a bushel) 19 (U.S. dollars a short ton)

4 WTI Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) s s < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > U.S. Natural Gas (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars an MMBtu) s s < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Copper (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) s -based s Brent Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) Gasoline (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a gallon) Gold (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a troy ounce) s < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >

5 -based s (concluded) Corn (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s s < < < < < < > < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rough Rice (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a hundredweight) s s < < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > Soybeans (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s Coffee (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) Wheat (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) Soybean Meal (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a short ton) s < <.... < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >.... 5

6 -based Probabilities of Changes (in percent) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WTI Crude Oil U.S. Natural Gas Copper Brent Crude Oil Gasoline % % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... Gold 6

7 -based Probabilities of Changes (concluded) (in percent) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... +%.... Corn Rough Rice Soybeans Coffee Wheat Soybean Meal % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

8 Commodity Derivative Contract Specifications Commodity Contract Physical Characteristics Contract Size Pricing Unit Months Traded Light sweet crude oil 1, barrels U.S. dollars per barrel Brent crude oil ICE Europe One crude oil futures contract of 1, barrels Consecutive months up to and including February 22 WTI crude oil New York Light sweet crude oil 1, barrels U.S. dollars per barrel One crude oil futures contract of 1, barrels Consecutive months are listed for the current year and the next five years; in addition, the Jun and Dec contract months are listed beyond the sixth year. Natural Gas New York Natural gas delivered at Henry Hub, LA, MMBtu U.S. dollars per MMBtu One natural gas futures contract of, MMBtu Consecutive months for the current year plus the next twelve full calendar years. Gasoline Gold New York New York Harbor RBOB 42, gallons U.S. cents per gallon Gold (a minimum of 995 fineness) One gasoline futures contract of 42, gallons troy ounces One COMEX Gold futures contract U.S. dollars per troy ounce Consecutive months for 36 months Current calendar month; the next two calendar months; any Feb, Apr, Aug, and Oct falling within a 23-month period; and any Jun and Dec falling within a 72-month period beginning with the current month. Corn Coffee Rough rice ICE Yellow corn grade #2 5, bushels (7 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Arabica coffee from 19 countries of origin U.S. #2 long grain rough rice with a total milling yield of 65%+ One corn futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels 37,5 lbs U.S. cents per pound One coffee futures contract (of a specified month) of 37,5 lbs 2, hundredweights (CWT) One rough rice futures contract of 2, hundredweights (CWT) U.S. cents per hundredweight Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Wheat Soybean meal #2 soft red winter wheat 5, bushels (6 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Meal with minimum protein of 48% One Wheat futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels short tons U.S. dollars per ton One soybean meal futures contract (of a specified month) of short tons Mar, May, July, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Soybeans Yellow soybean grade #2 5, bushels (6 MT) U.S. cents per bushel One soybean futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Sources: Board of Trade, ICE, Bloomberg, L.P. 8

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