The Global Market for Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils

Transcription

1 The Global Market for Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Presentation there on 28 somebody Nov at Oils to pick & Fats me Seminar up tomorrow of Olenex at in Hamburg the airport Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke, Oil World, Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals, Company Profil and Services ISTA Mielke GmbH publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information Independent, not involved in trading Leading private there somebody authority to for pick global me up research tomorrow and at market analyses for oilseeds, oils the airport & fats and oilmeals unbiased information on the past and current global supply, demand and price developments as well as forecasts Daily, weekly and monthly publications on 1

2 The huge palm oil supplies of last year have been disposed of. World stocks of palm oil reached a record 11.6 Mn T as of end-dec 212, thereof: Malaysia 2.6 & Indonesia 4. Mn T With consumption picking up sharply, stocks early-sept had declined by 1.8 Mn T in Malaysia & Indonesia combined Palm oil output smaller than expected recently. Only moderate rise in world stocks in Oct/Dec OILS & FATS Annual Stocks / Usage Ratios (%) Palm Oil Sun Oil Soya Oil 17 Oils/Fats 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 PALM OIL: World Supplies & Usage The annual growth in world palm oil supplies Annual Growth in Mn T Mn T and usage were at or near 6 record highs in 212/13 Supply Change Usage Change 5 But the growth will be slowing down in 213/14 4 there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport /6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 2

3 Energy Market Impacts: Palm oil prices (red line) traded largely sideways in March/Aug 213 Daily Prices of Crude Palm Oil & Brent Oil (US-$/T) 15 Crude palm oil, cif Rott. 1 Brent crude oil, Brent/ICE 95 But palm oil appreciated 9 by $ 9-12 in the 5 weeks to Nov 1 on smaller there than somebody 85 to pick me up tomorrow at expected production the and airport stocks and big demand 8 In Europe palm oil usage for energy increased by.9 Mn T in 212/ SepOct NovDecJa13 FebMar AprMayJun Jly AugSepOct Nov Prices from 3 Sept 212 until 26 Nov 213 Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T) Arg. soya oil prices fell to the lowest level in 32 months in August reducing the premium over palm Soya oil, Arg.fob oil to US $ For vegetable oils most the bearishness already discounted 1 8 RBD palm olein, Mal.fob 6 45 But much greater downward potential for oilmeal prices 6 4 Soya oil Premiums/discounts Ja1 Jun SepJa11 JunSep Ja12 JunSep Ja13 Jun Nov Daily prices from 1 Jan 21 until 26 Nov 213 3

4 Soybean and Meal Prices Overvalued in Chicago CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu) Jan 214 May Aug'13 Sep Oct Nov Daily futures from 1 Aug 213 until 26 Nov CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures (US$/ST) Dec day moving average NovDecJan13 FebMarApr May JunJly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily futures from 2 Nov 212 until 26 Nov CBOT: Daily Corn Futures (c/bu) December 213 position 95 9 CBOT: Daily Wheat Futures (c/bu) Daily futures 45 5-day moving average 4 Nov'12Ja'13 Feb Mar Apr May JunJly AugSep OctNov Daily futures 1 Nov 212 until 26 Nov Dec 213 position 5-day moving average OctNov DecJa13Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSepOct Nov Daily futures 19 Oct 212 until 26 Nov 213 4

5 Oilseeds : World Crushings Total and Annual Change (Mn T) World Crushings Annual change /93 95/96 98/99 1/2 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14-1 China the world largest crusher - Large and new capacities (competitive) - China has become a net exporter of soy meal In Brazil the domestic crushers lost market shares to soybean exporters Crushings of 1 Oilseeds (Mn T) Argentina Brazil China EU-27 U.S.A. India 95/96 97/98 99/1 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 October / September 5

6 12 OILMEALS : World Disappearance Change from Previous Season (in Mn T) Soyameal 12 Meals 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSep OctNovDec Prices for 213 until Nov 26 6

7 Monthly Prices of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil with 1-year average Jan Dec 27 (in US-$/T) Soya pellets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott. Average : US-$ '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 12 '13 From Oct 1997 until 26 Nov OILMEALS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T) Soya pell, 48%,Brazil,cif, Rott Rape meal,34%,fob ex-mill Hmb A/J11 O/D11 A/J12 O/D12 A/J13 O/D13 A/J14 J/M11 J/S11 J/M12 J/S12 J/M13 J/S13 J/M14 7

8 75 3 OILSEEDS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T) Soybeans, U.S., cif Rotterdam Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam 4 Rapeseed,Europe,,cif Hamburg A/J11 O/D11 A/J12 O/D12 A/J13 O/D13 A/J14 J/M11 J/S11 J/M12 J/S12 J/M13 J/S13 J/M14 Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market The Outlook of Soybeans & other Oilseeds 8

9 Global Production of 1 Oilseeds 213/14 = Mn T 1 Oilseeds Mn T India 8% Soybeans 58% China 1% Argentina 12% Other 3 Oilseeds 2% Brazil 18% Rapeseed 14% Copra & Palmkernels 4% Groundnuts 6% Cottonseed 9% Canada & U.S.A. 24% C.I.S. 7% EU-27 6% Other ctries 15% Sunflowerseed 8% In past 25 years world oilseed production more than doubled (strong demand) Rising acreage and yields Oilseeds: World Area and Production Production (Mn T) Area (Mn ha) About half of the acreage increased came from grains. But this shift will slow down. Agricultural land has become a limiting factor worldwide, big potential in Russia + Braz Land values more than doubled in past 6 years /89 91/92 94/95 97/98 /1 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 9

10 In 13/14 USA and South America account for: - 8% of world exports of 1 oilseeds (131 Mn T) OILSEEDS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T) -95% of world soybean 3 exports (total 19 Mn T) 25 there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at In 22: the airport 2 Brazil + Arg will have to 15 produce at least Mn T of soybeans (vs 1 13 in 213). Canada 5 Huge logistical needs! Australia U.S.A. Brazil Oth. America Ukraine 89/9 92/93 95/96 98/99 1/2 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 Indonesia & Malaysia have exported 43.5 Mn T of oils & fats in 212/13, Oils & Fats: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T) Indonesia 15.. thus accounting for Malaysia there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at 58% of total world the airport 1 exports all oils & Argentina fats (76 Mn) in 12/13 5 U.S.A. Canada Ukraine 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 1

11 The US likely to further boost net imports of oils/ fats to a record 2. Mn T in 213/14 4,5 U.S.A.: Exports & Imports of 17 Oils & Fats ( Mn T ) Growing Domestic Supply Deficits Boost US Import Needs 4 Exports 3,5.. Part of the story is 3 that the domestic there somebody 2,5 to pick me up tomorrow at crush industry the airport cannot compete 2.. Thus 44% of the US Imports 15 1,5 soybean crop was recently exported 1 93/94 97/98 91/92 95/96 1/2 5/6 99/ 3/4 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 9/1 7/8 13/14 11/12 Significant improvement in production in most countries in 213/14 Big increases in Argentina, Brazil and the C.I.S. India: Higher oilseed output in 213/14; slowdown of veg. oil import needs; but some crop damage Major exception is China. Much higher import needs. 1 Oilseeds: Estimated Production Change in 213/14 Annual Change from 212/13 ( in Mn T) EU C.I.S. Can USA Arg Bra India Australia China 11

12 Rising Chinese import dependence on declining domestic oilseed crops Competition of other crops Total agricultural land shrinking CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings 96 Crushings (Mn T) 88 Production (Mn T) /93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 CHINA: Rapidly rising import requirements Mainly of soybeans, but also of rapeseed and other agri commodities Big jump in oilseed imports by 9-1 Mn T is likely in 213/14 China building stocks of oilseeds, oils & grains CHINA: Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats Mn T Oilseeds Oils & Fats 92/93 95/96 98/99 1/2 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 12

13 7 6 5 Imports of Soybeans (Mn T) China Rest of world /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14F 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r The U.S.A.: This summer, drought damaged the US soya crop; but less than expected Reports about better than expected yields in US soya, confirmed by USDA s Nov 7 upward revision by 3. Mn T Soybean Crop Trend 14 Mn T U.S.A /81 86/87 92/93 98/99 4/5 1/11 77/78 83/84 89/9 95/96 1/2 7/8 13/14 13

14 World Soybean Production (Mn T) and US Market Share (in %) 3 7 Mn T 27 % World Production U.S.A. Share in % /82 87/88 94/95 99/ 5/6 13/14 Growing dependence on South America - - but supply risks owing to weather, strikes, infrastructure shortages + political issues (Argentina!) With good weather from now, higher plantings should boost S. Amer. soybean output to a new high in early 214 by Mn T In 213/14 S. American soya crop 7 Mn T above the US crop! Favorable weather + crop outlook in Brazil, Paraguay & Uruguay. In Argentina very good rains in Nov, following drought in Aug/Oct Soybean Crop Trend 16 Mn T U.S.A Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay 8/81 86/87 92/93 98/99 4/5 1/11 77/78 83/84 89/9 95/96 1/2 7/8 13/14 14

15 SOYBEANS : Output in 5 South American Countrie s (Mn T) 13/14F 12/13 11/12 1/11 8/9 Brazil * Argentina 55.* 48.5* 39.7* 49.2* 31.5* Paraguay. 9.3* 9.* 4.4* 7.38* 4.15 Bolivia * * 1.62 Uruguay.. 3.3* 3.2* 2.45* 1.8* 1.9* Total * In Brazil concern about crop losses from caterpillar infestation. The Bra Government declared the state of emergency for Mato Grosso to better control the disease (imports of non-authorized pesticides). The Argentine weather uncertainty is one of the biggest potential ti bullish factors on the supply side 15

16 ARGENTINA : Soybean Balance ( Mn T ) March / Feb Mar / Nov 13/14F 12/13 11/12 213F Open.stocks 322* 3.22* 33* 3.3* 43* 4.3* 3.22* 33* 3.3* 43* 4.3* Crop * 39.7* 49.2* 48.5* 39.7* 49.2* Imports * * -.1 Exports * * Crushings * * Other use * 2.4* 1.98* 1.47* 1.41* 1.41* End. stocks 5.2* 3.22* 3.3* 12.6* 8.76* 11.66* Argentina: Reserved soybean selling by farmers Keeping soybeans as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation Daily Selling Price of Argentine Peso per US-$ Official exchange rate Inofficial exchange rate 4 Nov11Ja12 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja13 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Daily prices from Nov 211 until 16

17 Assuming normal weather in South America: Ample oilseed supplies ahead in 213/14. Biggest increases in soybeans, sunflowerseed, rapeseed and palmkernels In 213/14 world production seen surging by 28 Mn T and opening stocks up 8 Mn T, boosting world supplies by 36 Mn T - - > BEARISH! 1 OILSEEDS: World Production (Mn T) 13/14F 12/13 11/12 1/11 Avg.Change 15 Years to 12/13 Soybeans * * % Cottonseed * 44.99* % Grdnuts,shelled 29.14* 28.1* % Sunflowerseed 4.15* 35.58* % Rapeseed * 63.92* % Sesameseed * 3.74* % Palmkernels * 13.94* % Copra * 5.38* % Linseed * 2.1* % Castorseed * 1.33* % Total * 466.5* % USA: Soybean exports again front-loaded in Sept/Febr 213/14 Sharply higher exports in 213/14 Frontloaded exp US exp Mn T in Sep/Nov vs % exp. till Febr! U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t 13/14F 12/13 11/12 1/11 9/1 8/9 Op. stocks Crop Imports.....6* there Exports somebody.... to 4.* pick me up tomorrow at Crushings * 46.11* 46.35* 44.85* the airport Other use * 2.29* 2.42* 3.56* End. stocks. 4.9* Stock s/usage 5.6% 4.5% 5.4% 6.6% 4.5% 4.5% 17

18 World production of rapeseed & canola set to increase by CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T ) A u g u s t / J u l y 3.8 Mn T to a record 13/14F 12/13 11/12 1/ Mn T Op. stocks * Biggest jump in Canada Farmer selling? Output * 14.2* * Imports * Exports * 7.27* 8.76* 7.2 Crushings.. 7.1* Other use....43*.3*.39*.36* End.stocks.. 2.*.61.75* 2.19 Sunflowerseed and Oil Weekly Oilseed Prices in the EU (US-$/T) Record crops of sunfl.seed in 78 the EU (8.5 Mn T) and C.I.S. (2.2 Mn) this year 72 World output up 4.6 Mn T creating price discounts 6 In Sep/Nov sunseed there prices somebody to pick me up tomorrow at below soya & rapeseed 54 the airport Black Sea sun oil started to 48 recover- - now at US $ Sunseed, EU World sun oil output +1.7 Mn 42 Rapeseed, EU 36 Jan11 MarMay Jly Sep Nov Ja12Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja13 MarMay Jly Sep Nov From Jan 211 to 14 Nov

19 Growing Dominance of Palm Oil & Palmkernel Oil Worldwide World consumption of all oils & fats more than doubled in the latest 2 years to 188 Mn T in 12/13 Palm oil and Pkernel oil: annual growth rates were more than double of those of other oils & fats. 2 Mn T 15 1 World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats palm oil + palmkernel oil 15 other oils & fats Today both oils account 5 worldwide for : % of consumption % of exports 98/99 1/2 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 Palm oil has become the most important veg. oil worldwide Palm oil production was boosted by more than 4 times in the past 2 years from 14 Mn T in 1993/94 and is estimated to reach 59 Mn T in 213/14, Thereof: Malaysia 2 Mn and Indonesia 3 Mn T 17 Oils & Fats: World Production (Mn T) Animal Fats Palm oil 9 Other oils Sun oil Soya oil Rape oil 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 19

20 Rising Dependence on Palm Oil 1997/98-212/13: Palm oil exports (blue line) almost quadrupled Exports of all 16 other Oils/Fats + 48% In Oct/Sept 213/14: Palm oil exports (blue line) likely to rise to 45 Mn T Combined exports of soya, sun & rapeseed oils (red) to recover to 21 Mn T Palm Oil 33 9 Other Oils & Fats World Exports in Mn T Soy, Rape, Sun Oils 4 Animal Fats 3 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 The Success Story of the past 3 Years Substantial growth in world production of palm oil In 198: 4.6 Mn T or 8% of 17 oils & fats In 199: 11. Mn T or 14% In 2: 21.9 Mn T or 19% In 21: there 46.1 somebody Mn to T pick me or up tomorrow 27% (only at 6% of area) the airport In 211: 5.8 Mn T or 28% (57% of exports) In 212: In 213: 53.7 Mn T (plus 5.9 Mn T of Palmkern oil) 56.3 Mn T In 22 at least 78 Mn T of palm oil required 2

21 SOYA OIL: Production in the past 3 Years In 198: 13.4 Mn T or 23% of 17 oils & fats In 199: 161M 16.1 Mn T or 2% In 2: 25.5 Mn T or 19% In 21: 4.2 Mn T or 23% In 211: 41.5 Mn T or 23% In 212: 41.7 Mn T or 22% In 213: 42.8 Mn T or 23% 17 Oils & Fats: World Consumption, by Category Jan/Dec 212 total: Mn T World consumption of oils/fats reached 184 Mn T in Jan/Dec 212 Of which: Food use Mn T Mn (72.7%) 7%) 24.3 Mn (13.2%) 17.1 Mn (9.3%) Biofuels 24.3 Mn T Chemicals 17.1 Mn T 8.8 Mn (4.8%) Other use 8.8 Mn T Food use Chemicals Other (animal feed, etc.) Energy (biofuels) 21

22 New Biodiesel Programme in Brazil: B7 to be implemented probably in March 214 This will imply a rise of 9-1 per month Usage of soya oil for biodiesel may rise.7 Mn T in 214, requiring sharply higher soybean crush BRAZIL : Biodiesel Production ( 1 T ) January / December Biodiesel 214F Production.. 338* 26* Feedstock used Soya oil * 22* Tallow * 42* Cotton oil... 9* 75* Other oils.. 85* 85* Bearish for meal ARGENTINA : Soya Oil Balance (1 T) January / December 214F 213F Open. stocks... 26* 267* 515* 377* 3* 43* P roduction * 6722* Exports * 448* Consumption * 2249* 2567* 2597* 1982* 1342* of which for biodiesel * 214* electricity.... 2* - * other use(a)... 17* 145* 112*(b) 17* 167* 163* Ending stocks 363* 26* 267* 515* 377* 3* (a) Mainly food.(b) More sun oil used for food. 22

23 Rapidly Rising World Consumption of Oils & Fats Demand Growth doubled in past 1 years (up 62 Mn T) biofuels population income Growth in biodiesel accelerated in Oils & Fats : World Disappearance Total Usage and Annual Change (Mn T) World Disappearance Annual Change 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 /1 3/4 6/7 9/1 13/ We at Oil World forecast an increase in global consumption of 17 oils & fats by 6.7 Mn T in 213/14 17 OILS & FATS: Consumption Change (in Mn T) O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 13/14 F 12/13 11/12 1/11 9/1 EU * U.S.A * Argentina * Brazil * China, PR * India * Indonesia * Malaysia * Others * World * Sharply higher usage there for somebody to pick me up tomorrow at biodiesel in Brazil the airport Swing factor Indonesia Others

24 Concluding Remarks World Production of 4 Major Oils Change on Year in Mn T 5 Palm Oil Soya Oil 4 Sun Oil Rape Oil /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 24

25 Soya oil futures are undervalued on the CBOT relative to the world market CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb) 45 Dec day moving average Nov DecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Daily futures from 2 Nov 212 until 26 Nov 213 Nov Daily Prices of Soya Oil and Basis vs. CBOT Futures 1 US-$/T there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport points versus CBOT Soya oil, fob Argentina (y1) Daily basis vs. CBOT soya oil futures (y2) Jun13 Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily prices and basis from 3 June until 26 Nov

26 Daily Prices of 2 Oils (in US-$/T) Soya oil, fob Argentina 9 there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the 875 airport 85 Sun oil, fob Black Sea 825 Aug 1 Aug15 Sep 2 Sep16Sep26 Oct17 Nov 1 Nov26 Daily prices from 1 Aug 213 until 26 Nov 213 Daily Prices of 2 Oils (US-$/T) 155 Coconut oil prices much too high at US $ 145 in 145 2nd week of Nov Coconut oil, cif Rott. 135 Crude palm oil, cif Rott. Demand response to cur- 125 rent huge price premiums higher than the losses 115 done by the terrible there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at typhoon Haiyan 15 the airport Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily prices from 1 March 213 till 26 Nov

27 OILS & FATS: Production & Demand Change From Year Ago in Mn T Production Demand /2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r World production of oils & fats is likely to rise faster than consumption in coming months, mainly on account of sun oil and palm oil. 17 OILS & FATS: Production & End'g Stocks Change From Year Ago in Mn T 1 Production Ending stocks 8 In Oct/Dec 213 the excess 6 of production over demand will lead to a recovery there in somebody 4 to pick me up tomorrow at world stocks of all oils the & airport fats 2 Likely to result in some price pressure in the near term. -2 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 27

28 17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage 26 Stocks (Mn T) Stocks/Usage (%) E n d - S e p t e m b e r In Europe palm oil established a low of US $ 776 in Dec 212, ending its price cycle after 48 months The latest t low was much above those of preceding cycles. But veg.oil prices moved to a higher plateau since 27. Weakness in crude mineral oil prices and slow down of biodiesel production (e.g. USA) are potential bearish factors Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT) Palm oil, crude cif Rott. Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill '13 Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 26 Nov

29 Thank You for Your Kind Attention! If I can be of assistance to you in the future, you are invited to contact me any time. More details and background information are given in the Oil World Weekly & Monthly Reports, which can all be obtained from the Internet. Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport 29