The Probability of a Random Walk First Returning to the Origin at Time t = 2n
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1 The Probability of a Radom Wal First Returig to the Origi at Time t Arturo Feradez Uiversity of Califoria, Bereley Statistics 157: Topics I Stochastic Processes Semiar February 1, 011 What is the probability that a radom wal, begiig at the origi, will retur to the origi at time t? The wal ca move up (+1 or dow (-1 at ay oe step, with each movemets havig a probability of 1/. The aswer to this questio ivolves probability theory, combiatorial idetities, ad geeratig fuctios. 1
2 Feradez 1 Itroductio: A Radom Wal (Note: The followig discussio borrows from Chapter 1 of Gristead ad Sell s Itroductio to Probability (Olie Ed., ad Prof. Pitma s Olie Lecture Notes Defiitio 1. Let{X } 1 {X 1, X, X 3,..., X,...} be a sequece of idepedet ad idetically distributed (i.i.d discrete radom variables. For all 1, let S X 1 + X + X X. The sequece of partial sums {S } 1, which also ca be deoted as the series 1 X, is called a radom wal. I this discussio, we cosider the case where the radom variables X i share the followig distributio fuctio: f X (x { 1, if x ±1 0, otherwise (1 -paths Defiitio. Whe graphed o the Cartesia axis, we defie a -path to be the path a radom wal ca tae up to its -th step (t, the plot of a uique S. Propositio 1. The probability of a m-path returig to the origi is ( m m u m P 0 (S m 0 m ( The argumet for this propositio is based o the properties of the biomial distributio. I this case, we have m trials ad we wat to ow the probability of m succeses, with probabilities p 1/ (of a +1 movemet ad q 1/ (of a -1 movemet. Note that the umber of +1 movemets must equal the umber of -1 movemets, or i this case our X i s. We also coclude that the path ca oly retur to the origi at a eve time. Therefore, ( ( m 1 m P(m successes i m trials m 3 First Retur Defiitio 3. A radom wal has a first retur to the origi at its m-th step if: 1. m 1. S 0 < m We will express the probability of a radom wal s first retur at time t m as f m. Also, we defie f chace/teachig aids/boos articles/probability boo/pdf.html
3 Feradez 3 Theorem 1. For 1, {f } ad {u } are related by the followig equatio: u f 0 u + f u + + f u 0 (3 Proof. We begi by otig that the expressio f is equal to the umber of -paths that oly touch the origi at the edpoits, that is the o cartesia coordiates (0, 0 ad (, 0. Similarly, u is equal to the total umber of paths that ed at the origi. The collectio of these -paths ca be partitioed ito sets, depedig o their first retur. For example, a path i this collectio that has its first retur at t, cosists of a path from (0, 0 to (, 0 that oly touches the origi at those edpoits ad a path from (, 0 to (, 0 that has o restrictios other tha the probablistic costraits that we gave the X i s. Thus, the umber of -paths that have their first retur at t is give by f u f u If we sum, the right had side of the above equality, over, we fid that u f 0 u + f u + + f u 0 Dividig both sides by gives (3. Give this relatio, we should ow try to express f (uow i terms of u (ow. At this poit, we use the properties of geeratig fuctios (power series to help us simplify the relatio give by (3. 4 Geeratig Fuctios We defie the followig geeratig fuctios, as derived from u m ad f m, U(x u m x m ad F (x f m x m m0 m1 A covolutio argumet ca be simplified as follows ( ( F (xu(x f m x m u x Which implies that, m1 0 ( f m u m 1 m1 u x 1 U(x 1 F (x U(x 1 U(x 1 1 U(x Therefore, if we ca fid a closed-form solutio for U(x, the we will have oe for F (x. We shift focus temporarily to establish some algebraic idetities. x (4
4 Feradez 4 5 Algebra ad Idetities By the Biomial Theorem this ca be geeralized to Also, ote that (1 + x (1 + x a 0 0 ( x 1 (5 ( a x for x < 1 ( a a(a 1 (a + 1 :! a R (6 These idetities will help us fid the closed-form solutio of U(x, we just eed to prove oe more claim. Claim. Proof. ( ( 1 1 ( 1 1 ( + 1! 1 1 ( (5(3(1! 1! ! (1 + 1(1 + ( ! ( 1 ( 1 ( 1 1 ( ( 1 1 by (6
5 Feradez 5 6 Formulas for U(x ad F (x We begi with the closed-form solutio of U(x: U(x u x ( x by ( ( ( x x by (7 (1 x 1 by (5 Recall that F (x f m x m m1 where f m is the probability of the radom wal s (p 1, q 1 first retur at time t m.we cotiue with a applicatio of the biomial theorem o the results from above ad (4. F (x 1 U(x 1 1 (1 x 1 1 ( x 1 ( 1 1 (x 1 f m x m m1 Comparig the coefficiets we deduce that: f ( 1 1 ( 1 u 1
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