U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
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1 U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook September 211 Economic Policy Division
2 Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate
3 Real GDP Trillion 25 Dollars Log Scale $14.- $11.5- $9.4- U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q2 211 $7.7- $6.3- $5.2- Actual Potential $ Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
4 Comparing Recessions GDP Loss (Peak to Trough) GDP Growth in the following year GDP Growth in the following 2 years Average monthly payroll employment growth in year following trough (thous.) Average monthly payroll employment growth in 2 years following trough (thous.) Duration of Trough Recession May 1954 (II) -2.5 (%) 1 (months) 7.9 (%) 5. (%) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 197 (IV) March 1975 (I) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 21 (IV) June 29 (II) N/A Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak
5 Percent Change, Annual Rate Personal Consumption Outlook Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Real Disposable Income Per Capita Trillion $ Household Wealth Percent Change, Year to Year Retail Sales
6 Housing Market Trends Thous. of Units, SAAR Housing Starts Thous. of Units, SAAR Home Sales New Home Sales (left axis) Existing Home Sales (right axis) Sales Price, Thous. $ Median Home Prices Existing Homes New Homes Thous. of Units, SAAR New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) Housing Inventory
7 Percent Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Credit Standards on Residential Loans Housing Market Trends Housing Affordability Index Percent, SA Mortgage Delinquency Rates Conventional Subprime: Total Past Due Conventional Prime: Total Past Due Percent, SA Mortgage Foreclosure Rates All Loans Conventional Subprime
8 Percent Change, Annual Rate Investment Real Private Investment in Equipment & Software Percent Change, Annual Rate Real Private Investment - Structures Billion Chained 2$, Annual Rate Real Change in Private Inventories
9 Percent Change, Annual Rate Investment Drivers Industrial Production SAAR, Billion $ 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Corporate Profits Purchasing Managers Index Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Total Business
10 SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2$ U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services Billions $, YTD Trade Flows of Top Trading Partners EU Canada China Mexico Japan Exports Imports
11 Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) Exchange Rates U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate US$/Euro; US$/Pound; US$/1Yen Euro UK Japan
12 Percent Change, Annual Rate Real GDP Growth Canada Mexico Percent Change, Annual Rate UK France Germany Percent Change, Annual Rate 3. Spain Portugal 2. Italy Ireland 1. Greece Percent Change, Year to Year China India Japan Source: Oxford Economics
13 Percent Change, Year to Year Canada Mexico Inflation (Consumer Price Index) Percent Change, Year to Year UK France Germany Percent Change, Year to Year Spain Portugal -1 Italy Ireland Greece Percent Change, Year to Year 2 China India Japan Source: Oxford Economics
14 Percent Canada Unemployment Rates Mexico Percent UK France Germany Percent 25 Spain Portugal 2 Italy Ireland Greece Source: Oxford Economics Percent China India Japan
15 Percent Canada Mexico Interest Rates (1 Year Government Bonds) Percent UK Germany France Percent 2 Spain Portugal 15 Italy Ireland 1 Greece Percent China India Japan Source: Oxford Economics
16 Percent Change 12 1 Real GDP Growth of Top Trading Partners World U.S. Canada Mexico Brazil Russia India China South Korea Source: Oxford Economics, USCC Forecast Japan UK Euro Area France Germany
17 Percent Unemployment Rate Canada Mexico Brazil Russia India China South Korea Source: Oxford Economics Percent Change Inflation Canada Mexico Brazil Russia India China South Korea Source: Oxford Economics Japan UK Euro Area France Germany Japan UK Euro Area France Germany
18 Million Total Nonfarm Jobs Labor Market Million Household Employment SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Percent Unemployment Rate August 9.1%
19 Thousands Marginally Attached Discouraged Workers Labor Market Thousands 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Part-time for Economic Reasons SA, % Civilian Participation Rate Median Weeks Unemployed, SA Duration of Unemployment
20 Percent Change, 3-Month Annualized Rate Inflation Consumer Price Index Percent Change, 3-Month Annualized Rate Core Consumer Price Index
21 $/gallon $5. $4. $3. $2. $1. $. Oil, Gas, and Diesel Prices Source: EIA, Dept of Energy 1967 = Spot Market Price Index: All Commodities Gas Diesel WTI (Right Axis) 1967 = Spot Market Price Index: Metals $/barrel $15. $1. $5. $.
22 Percent Interest Rates & Spreads 1-Year Treasury Note Yield 3-Month Treasury Note Yield Percent TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3- Month Treasury Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
23 Fed Policy Billions $ 1,8 1,5 1, Jan Apr. July Oct. 29 Jan Bank Reserve Positions Apr Jul Oct 21 Jan Excess Required Apr Jul Oct 211 Jan Apr Jul Billions $ 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 28 Jan Apr. July Oct. 29 Jan Federal Reserve Assets Apr Jul Oct 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 211 Apr Jul
24 Deficit to GDP CBO s Baseline (August 211)
25 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit ($ billions) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Total Revenues 2,163 2,314 2,635 3,69 3,423 3,665 3,847 4,87 4,286 4,58 4,731 4,969 16,64 39,221 Total Outlays 3,456 3,597 3,69 3,692 3,83 3,988 4,249 4,449 4,635 4,913 5,161 5,49 19,34 43,98 Total Deficit -1,294-1, ,232-3,487 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit (Percent of GDP) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Total Revenues Total Outlays Total Deficit
26 Government Debt (CBO s Baseline August 211)
27 Government Debt CBO Baseline (August 211) Debt Held by the Public Actual, $ billions 9,19 1,164 11,153 11,773 12,148 12,463 12,84 13,169 13,473 13,82 14,181 14,541 % of GDP
28 Government Revenues and Outlays (% of GDP) 3 25 Forecast Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)
29 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit ($ billions) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Total Revenues 2,163 2,314 2,635 3,69 3,423 3,665 3,847 4,87 4,286 4,58 4,731 4,969 16,64 39,221 Total Outlays 3,456 3,597 3,69 3,692 3,83 3,988 4,249 4,449 4,635 4,913 5,161 5,49 19,34 43,98 Total Deficit -1,294-1, ,232-3,487 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit (Percent of GDP) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Total Revenues Total Outlays Total Deficit
30 Sources of Tax Revenue (% of Total Revenues, Fiscal Years) % 35.3% 8.3% 47.1% Individual Income Taxes Corporation Income Taxes Social Insurance & Retirement Other Taxes Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)
31 CBO Baseline (August 211) - $ Billions Sources of Tax Revenue Total Actual, Individual income taxes 899 1,89 1,29 1,51 1,666 1,843 1,985 2,129 2,257 2,393 2,534 2,679 8,214 2,24 Corporate income taxes ,55 1,123 1,188 1,242 1,296 1,351 1,412 1,473 5,286 12,6 Social insurance taxes ,848 4, Other revenues ,292 2,958 CBO Baseline (August 211) Percent of GDP Total Actual, Individual income taxes Corporate income taxes Social insurance taxes Other revenues
32 Government Outlays (% of Total Outlays, Fiscal Years) 6.2% % Discretionary Spending 56.2% Mandatory Spending Net Interest Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)
33 Government Outlays ($ Billions) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Mandatory 1,913 2,23 2,56 2,129 2,211 2,34 2,511 2,616 2,721 2,918 3,95 3,282 11,247 25,879 Discretionary 1,347 1,353 1,315 1,3 1,31 1,311 1,332 1,35 1,37 1,44 1,434 1,464 6,559 13,58 Net Interest ,535 4,449 Total 3,456 3,597 3,69 3,692 3,83 3,988 4,249 4,449 4,635 4,913 5,161 5,49 19,34 43,98 Government Outlays (Share of Total Outlays) CBO Baseline (August 211) Percent of GDP Total Actual, Mandatory Discretionary Net Interest
34 Mandatory Spending (% of Total Mandatory Spending, Fiscal Years) 211 Social Security 25.9% 35.9% Medicare and Medicaid 38.2% Income Security, Other Retirement and Spending, and Offsetting Receipts Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)
35 Mandatory Spending ($ Billions) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Social Security ,1 1,63 1,131 1,23 1,276 4,276 9,951 Medicare and Medicaid ,11 1,118 1,18 1,234 1,334 1,431 1,536 4,617 11,332 Other Mandatory Spending Total 1,913 2,23 2,56 2,129 2,211 2,34 2,511 2,616 2,721 2,918 3,95 3,282 11,247 25,879 Mandatory Spending (Share of Total) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Social Security 36.6% 35.9% 37.4% 38.1% 38.6% 38.3% 37.6% 38.3% 39.1% 38.8% 38.9% 38.9% 38.% 38.5% Medicare and Medicaid 38.5% 38.2% 36.8% 38.3% 41.4% 43.2% 44.5% 45.1% 45.4% 45.7% 46.2% 46.8% 41.1% 43.8% Other Mandatory Spending 28.% 27.8% 28.7% 27.% 23.6% 22.3% 21.4% 2.4% 19.4% 19.4% 18.7% 18.1% 24.4% 21.4%
36 Discretionary Spending (% of Total Discretionary Spending, Fiscal Years) % 51.9% Defense Nondefense Source: CBO Baseline (August 211)
37 Discretionary Spending ($ Billions) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Defense ,71 7,856 Nondefense ,134 6,53 Reduction to meet the Discretionary Cap Total 1,347 1,353 1,315 1,3 1,31 1,311 1,332 1,35 1,37 1,44 1,434 1,464 6,559 13,58 Discretionary Spending (Share of Total) CBO Baseline (August 211) Total Actual, Defense 51.1% 51.9% 52.8% 53.9% 54.4% 54.7% 55.1% 55.1% 55.% 55.2% 55.2% 55.2% 54.2% 54.7% Nondefense 48.9% 48.1% 47.2% 46.1% 45.6% 45.3% 44.9% 44.9% 45.% 44.8% 44.8% 44.8% 45.8% 45.3%
38 The President s Budget (CBO s Estimate of the President s Budget) Deficit to GDP
39 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit ($ billions) CBO s Analysis of the President s Budget Total Actual, Total Revenues 2,162 2,229 2,544 2,899 3,212 3,442 3,635 3,818 3,994 4,179 4,382 4,597 15,732 36,72 Total Outlays 3,456 3,655 3,78 3,8 3,976 4,191 4,476 4,687 4,896 5,2 5,483 5,756 2,15 46,172 Total Deficit -1,294-1, ,21-1,11-1,158-4,418-9,47 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit (Percent of GDP) CBO s Analysis of the President s Budget Actual, Total Total Revenues Total Outlays Total Deficit
40 Government Debt (CBO s Estimate of the President s Budget)
41 Debt CBO s Analysis of the President s Budget Actual, $ billions 9,18 1,389 11,661 12,66 13,516 14,359 15,292 16,254 17,25 18,364 19,558 2,86 % of GDP
42 Government Revenues and Outlays (% of GDP) 3 25 Forecast Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) Source: CBO s Estimate of the President s Budget
43 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit ($ billions) CBO s Analysis of the President s Budget Total Actual, Total Revenues 2,162 2,229 2,544 2,899 3,212 3,442 3,635 3,818 3,994 4,179 4,382 4,597 15,732 36,72 Total Outlays 3,456 3,655 3,78 3,8 3,976 4,191 4,476 4,687 4,896 5,2 5,483 5,756 2,15 46,172 Total Deficit -1,294-1, ,21-1,11-1,158-4,418-9,47 Government Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit (Percent of GDP) CBO s Analysis of the President s Budget Actual, Total Total Revenues Total Outlays Total Deficit
44 House Budget Resolution Deficit to GDP
45 Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit ($ billions) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Total Revenues 2,162 3,618 3,529 3,558 3,583 3,667 3,855 3,996 4,123 4,354 4,547 4,745 18,192 39,958 Total Outlays 3,456 2,23 2,533 2,86 3,94 3,237 3,377 3,589 3,745 3,939 4,142 4,354 15,11 34,87 Total Deficit -1,294 1, ,388 3,91-5,88 Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit (Percent of GDP) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Total Revenues Total Outlays Total Deficit
46 House Budget Resolution
47 Debt House Budget Resolution Debt Held by the Public Actual, $ billions 9,18 1,351 11,418 12,216 12,797 13,319 13,876 14,351 14,787 15,242 15,673 16,68 % of GDP
48 Revenues and Outlays (% of GDP) 3 25 Forecast Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) Source: House Budget Resolution
49 Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit ($ billions) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Total Revenues 2,162 3,618 3,529 3,558 3,583 3,667 3,855 3,996 4,123 4,354 4,547 4,745 18,192 39,958 Total Outlays 3,456 2,23 2,533 2,86 3,94 3,237 3,377 3,589 3,745 3,939 4,142 4,354 15,11 34,87 Total Deficit -1,294 1, ,388 3,91-5,88 Revenues, Outlays, and Deficit (Percent of GDP) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Total Revenues Total Outlays Total Deficit
50 Outlays (% of Total Outlays, Fiscal Years) 5.9% % Discretionary Spending 56.8% Mandatory Spending Net Interest Source: House Budget Resolution
51 Outlays ($ Billions) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Discretionary 1,91 1,352 1,286 1,27 1,16 1,143 1,144 1,148 1,155 1,177 1,195 1,218 5,94 11,832 Mandatory 1,349 2,54 1,987 2,34 2,33 2,67 2,19 2,27 2,341 2,51 2,646 2,793 1,311 22,869 Net Interest ,944 5,258 Total 3,456 3,618 3,529 3,558 3,583 3,667 3,855 3,996 4,123 4,354 4,547 4,745 18,192 39,958 Outlays (Share of Total Outlays) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Discretionary 37.4% 36.4% 33.9% 32.4% 31.2% 29.7% 28.7% 28.% 27.% 26.3% 25.7% 32.7% 29.6% 37.4% Mandatory 56.8% 56.3% 57.2% 56.7% 56.4% 56.8% 56.8% 56.8% 57.6% 58.2% 58.9% 56.7% 57.2% 56.8% Net Interest 5.9% 7.3% 9.% 1.9% 12.5% 13.5% 14.5% 15.2% 15.3% 15.5% 15.5% 1.7% 13.2% 5.9%
52 Mandatory Spending (% of Total Mandatory Spending, Fiscal Years) 211 Social Security 23.8% 35.4% Medicare and Medicaid 4.8% Income Security, Other Retirement and Spending, and Offsetting Receipts Source: House Budget Resolution
53 Mandatory Spending ($ Billions) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Social Security Medicare and Medicaid Other Mandatory Spending , Total 2,54 1,987 2,34 2,33 2,67 2,19 2,27 2,341 2,51 2,646 2,793 1,311 22,869 2,54 Mandatory Spending (Share of Total) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Social Security 35.4% 38.2% 39.3% 41.4% 43.% 42.9% 43.8% 45.2% 44.8% 45.1% 45.3% 41.% 43.1% 35.4% Medicare and Medicaid 4.8% 41.2% 42.4% 43.5% 44.% 44.4% 44.5% 44.5% 44.6% 44.7% 45.% 43.1% 44.% 4.8% Other Mandatory Spending 23.8% 2.5% 18.3% 15.2% 13.1% 12.7% 11.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 9.6% 15.9% 12.9% 23.8%
54 Discretionary Spending (% of Total Discretionary Spending, Fiscal Years) % 58.2% Defense Nondefense Source: House Budget Resolution
55 Discretionary Spending ($ Billions) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Defense ,84 7,866 Nondefense ,1 3,966 Total 1,349 1,352 1,286 1,27 1,16 1,143 1,144 1,148 1,155 1,177 1,195 1,218 5,94 11,832 Discretionary Spending (Share of Total) House Budget Resolution Total Actual, Defense 51.1% 58.2% 62.3% 64.% 64.7% 65.7% 66.9% 67.5% 68.1% 68.6% 68.8% 68.8% 64.6% 66.5% Nondefense 48.9% 41.8% 37.7% 36.% 35.3% 34.3% 33.1% 32.5% 31.9% 31.4% 31.2% 31.2% 35.4% 33.5%
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