European perspective

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1 Fiscal policy challenges from a European perspective Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany Banco de España, Madrid, 21 September

2 Public debt at record highs, peaking Public debt in percent of GDP Euro Area 70.5* Germany ¾ France Italy Spain Portugal Greece 88.5* Ireland United Kingdom Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015) for ; AMECO for Germany: Federal Statistical Office and MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points * European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015): Statistical Annex 2

3 but primary balance still often in deficit Primary net lending/borrowing in percent of GDP Euro Area Germany ½ France Italy Spain Portugal Greece Ireland United Kingdom Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015) for ; AMECO for Germany: Federal Statistical Office and MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points 3

4 Government expenditure growth Before crisis: skyrocketed in some countries After crisis: reduced sharply average annual growth rate of nominal government expenditure average annual growth rate of nominal government expenditure % 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% FRA ITA DEU PRT GRC IRE ESP 0.00% FRA ITA DEU PRT GRC* IRE ESP Source: AMECO (COM Spring forecast 2015 ); *ESA95 Eurostat t %

5 Cyclically adjusted primary balance not always improving Cyclically adjusted primary balances as a percentage of GDP Germany /4 13/4 Spain France , Italy Portugal Greece Ireland Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015); Germany 2014 and onwards: German Stability Programme, April 2015, MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points 5

6 Public expenditure ratios slightly decreasing but still above pre crisis years and high compared to international competitors Public expenditure in percent of GDP Euro Area 48.0* Germany ¾ France Italy Spain Portugal Greece 49.8* Ireland United Kingdom Singapore Korea Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015) for ; AMECO for Germany: Federal Statistical Office and MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points For Singapore and Korea: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2015) *ESA 1995, Eurostat 6

7 Demographic challenges Old age dependency ratio (ratio of population 65+ per 100 population 15 64) Projected changes in age related spending in % of potential GDP Korea USA China Germany Spain France Italy Japan Euro Area Korea United States China Spain Germany France Italy Japan Public health care spending Public pension spending Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Euro Area: The 2015 Ageing Report Source: BIS, Annual Report

8 Macroeconomic rebalancing in progress Exports of goods and services at constant prices, avg. growth rate Source: AMECO (COM Spring Forecast 2015) 8

9 Unit labour cost divergence reversing Euro area = 100 Source: AMECO (COM Spring Forecast 2015) 9

10 Unemployment rates high, improvements 10 Source: AMECO (COM Spring Forecast 2015)

11 Private sector debt stabilizing at high levels Debt outstanding in percent of GDP Private Households Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Greece Ireland United Kingdom Nonfinancial Corporations Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Greece Ireland United Kingdom Source: Statistical Data Warehouse, June Annual data; except for GRC and ITA 2014: Quarterly data Q4

12 Financial sector more resilient Tier 1 Capital Ratio 12 Source: ECB, Consolidated Banking Data

13 but sovereign bank nexus still high 13 Source: ECB

14 Non standard measures of monetary policy Are we already in the long run of negative side effects? Risk of bubbles / bursts / financial instability Low investment productivity; diverted into real estate / financial investments No creative destruction, Zombification Uncertainty over new normal and long term stability Policy moral hazard 14

15 House price indices 2/2 2003=100 CH UK USA 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 15 Source: CH: Swiss National Bank; UK: ECB; USA: Federal Reserve

16 Office property p yprices Germany France Netherlands Spain UK USA 16 Q12001=100, Log Scale Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Moody s, Deutsche Bundesbank

17 How far can Central Banks go? 1/2 17

18 How far can Central Banks go? 2/2 *Vertical lines: start of hyperinflation in respective countries; dashed blue line: start of Argentina crisis Source: IMF, Banco Central de la República Argentina, Banco Central do Brasil, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú 18

19 How to unburden monetary policy? Prevent fiscal dominance, stick to rules based fiscal framework sustainable public finances; debt restructuring provisions? Economic policy coordination, single market flexible factor markets, competitiveness, employment and growth Well regulated financial markets financing g of real economy, financial stability, bail in 19

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