Capital Markets Review

Transcription

1 Capital Markets Review Second Quarter

2 Capital Markets Review Consumer Data Consumer Delinquencies: down from previously reported US Personal Savings Rate: down from previously reported Consumer Credit: down from previously reported Consumer Spending (PCE) The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) measures the value of good and services purchased by individual consumers, families and the nonprofit institutions serving them. As of December 2010, 90% of PCE growth rates have ranged from 0.40% to +0.80% Homes Housing Starts & Building Permits: no significant changes Mortgage Delinquencies Measures delinquency percentages for residential real estate loans secured by one to four family properties. As of December 2010, 90% of observations for the mortgage delinquency rates fall between 1.40% and 3.67%

3 Corporate Debt, Earnings and Valuations Corporate Earnings: up from previously reported Valuations: up from previously reported Corporate Debt (OAS) An OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) is a measurement tool for evaluating yield differences between similar-maturity fixed-income products with different embedded options. As of December 2010, 90% of month-end OAS values ranged from 0.51% to 2.06%. Inflation, Money Supply and Cash Cash on the Sidelines: down from previously reported Base Velocity: down from previously reported Inflationary pressures from food and energy increases are weighing on developed economies Core Inflation (PCI PI) Average prices increase for American consumers on an annualized basis; 90% of month-end readings for the core PCE PI change have ranged from 1.1% to 6.8%

4 Bond Spreads TIPS Break Even Spreads: up from previously reported TED Spread: up from previously reported Historical High Yield Spreads: average adj. spread down from previously reported Interest Rates The spread between 3 month Treasury yield and 10 year Treasury note yields measures the market s outlook for future interest rates. As of December 2010, 90% of month-end readings for the yield curve spread have ranged from 0.25% to +3.55% Muni Spreads Municipal Yield Ratios: down from previously reported Municipals vs. Similar Credit Quality Corporate Bonds: Yield to Worst down from previously reported, but still volatile, pointing to the need for in-depth credit analysis

5 GDP, Industry and Capacity Capacity Utilization: down from previously reported Vehicle Sales: down from previously reported Economic Expansion (GDP) The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures the total market value of a nation s output of goods and services during a specific time period. As of December 2010, 90% of the U.S. GDP growth rates have ranged from 2.40% to % Employment Growth Leading indicators point to continued improvement in Labor Market Employment Growth (NF PAY) The NF Pay (Non-Farm payroll) measures the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the previous month, not including jobs related to the farming industry due to its seasonal hiring. As of December 2010, 90% of NF PAY values have ranged from 0.38% to +0.54%

6 Market Volatility The CBOE VIX (Chicago Board Op ons Exchange Vola lity Index) measures annualized implied vola lity as conveyed by the S&P 500 stock index op on prices and is quoted in percentage points per annum. As of December 2011, 90% of the values of the VIX ranged from 11.10% to 30.04% Oil and Commodities DJ AIG Commodity Spot Index, Spot Light Crude, Corn Futures & Spot Copper all decreased from previously reported Oil supply/demand conditions are tight. Risk looms of geopolitical threats to any major exporter China China Equity Performance: Shanghai A index down from previously reported China vs Emerging Markets: indices down from previously reported Consumer confidence is waning International US Dollar has started to gain strength again Sovereign debt issues simmer in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland