The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

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1 The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

2 Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but a sustainable growth environment still needs to be secured Old and new risks (Euro area, EME, Fiscal position in US) Policy requirements for sustainable growth

3 The recovery in world trade remains sluggish 14 Global merchandise trade volumes Index, 25 = Source: CPB.

4 The composition of global growth has changed Industrial production growth has picked up in advanced countries but slowed in emerging economies month moving average, annualised percentage change 1 G7 Emerging Economies m1 211m7 212m1 212m7 213m The series are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Note: The values for Emerging Economies are a weighted average of those for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and South Africa, where weights are nominal GDP, measured at PPP 25 USD. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 93 database; OECD Main Economic Indicators database; national statistical agencies; and OECD calculations.

5 Forward-looking indicators have improved in advanced economies Business surveys are pointing to stronger growth in major advanced economies Manufacturing PMI indicators, index level United States Euro area Japan China 4 211m1 211m7 212m1 212m7 213m1 213m Levels above 5 signal expansion. Source: Markit Economics Limited; National Bureau of Statistics, China.

6 Recent higher growth rates for the major advanced countries should be maintained in the rest of 213 3, G7 real GDP Annualised quarter-on-quarter change, per cent 3, 2,5 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1,5 1, 1,,5,5,, -,5 212q3 212q4 213q1 213q2 213q3 213q4 -,5 Note: Figures for the 3 rd and 4 th quarters of 213 are based on the OECD s indicator model. Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators; OECD indicator-based forecast.

7 Main Risks Underlying weaknesses in EMEs may be exposed by capital outflows and financial market pressures. In the euro area, banking union is still far from complete and many banks remain weakly capitalised.

8 Bond yields have risen, reflecting fundamentals and central bank action 5 Benchmark 1-year bond yields Per cent United States Euro area Japan m1 211m7 212m1 212m7 213m1 213m7 Note: The synthetic eruro area bond yield is the GDP-weighted average of yields on the benchmark bond series of members of the European Monetary Union. Source: Eurostat; Datastream.

9 Emerging economies have recently suffered a sharp reversal in capital flows Indicator of net flows 1 Billions of US dollars Equity funds Bond funds Total EPFR Global data give a partial sample of total inflows and outflows. Source: EPFR Global.

10 Emerging economies with large current account deficits have experienced more exchange rate pressure in recent months Recent exchange rate movements and current account balances among emerging economies Russia Current account balance 1 Argentina China 4 2 Brazil Indonesia Mexico -2 India Turkey Chile Poland -4 South Africa Percentage change in nominal effective exchange rate since May Trailing 4 quarters, as per cent of GDP. Source: Datastream; OECD Economic Outlook 93 database.

11 Trend growth is declining in emerging economies Estimated and projected potential output Average annual percentage change 8 7 OECD non OECD Source: OECD Economic Outlook 93 long-term database.

12 There has been a loss of momentum in structural reform in emerging economies Reform responsiveness since 211 has been lower in the BRIICS Responsiveness rate (%) to Going for Growth recommendations, ,6,6,4,4,2,2 BRIICS OECD, Note: The reform responsiveness rate indicator based on a scoring system, which takes a value of one if significant action is taken reflecting the recommendations set in Going for Growth (212), and zero otherwise. Source: OECD Going for Growth 213.

13 Bank returns on assets (in %)

14 Problem loans make it hard for banks in some euro area countries to bolster capital cover Non-performing loans In per cent of total loans Note: End-212 for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the United States; end-september 212 for Japan; end-june 212 for France and Italy; and end-211 for Germany and the UK. Euro area countries shown in blue, other countries in grey. Cross-country comparisons of NPLs are complicated by differences in definitions. Source: IMF Financial Soundness Indicators.

15 Policy requirements to achieve sustainable growth Monetary policy Fiscal policy Structural policy

16 Monetary policy requirements In the advanced economies, inflation generally remains very low. Core inflation 12-month percentage change in core consumer price index United States Euro area Japan For the United States and Japan, core index is CPI excluding energy and food, for the euro area HICP excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators database; OECD calculations

17 Monetary policy requirements (continued) Low inflation, substantial economic slack, and tighter monetary conditions (via higher bond yields) in many advanced economies monetary policy should remain expansionary. More diverse situation in EMEs. China: low inflation provides scope to ease if needed, but strong credit growth suggests the need for caution. Dilemmas for some other EMEs. Weak credibility, inflation already high and currency under pressure need to tighten despite weaker activity. Strong credibility central banks can look through inflationary impulses coming from currency weakness.

18 Fiscal policy requirements In the United States and the euro area budget outcomes have improved. General government balance Per cent of GDP United States Euro area Japan Source: OECD Economic Outlook 93 database.

19 Fiscal policy requirements (continued) Further consolidation is warranted in the US, but more gradual than this year. Euro area countries should pursue planned structural consolidation in 214 and allow automatic stabilisers to play. In Japan the planned VAT hike should take place, but some temporary and partial offset could be introduced if necessary.

20 Structural policies i. Labour markets The OECD-wide unemployment rate has been little changed for some time, with falls in the US and Japan but increases until recently in the euro area. Unemployment rate Per cent of the labour force 14, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,, United States Euro area Japan 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,, Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term Labour Market Statistics Database and national labour force surveys.

21 Structural policies i. Labour markets (continued) The share of young people not in employment, education or training has risen since the crisis in the US and Europe: 16 Youth inactivity Percentage of population aged not in employment, education or training United States Euro area 8 6 Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term Labour Market Statistics Database and national labour force surveys. Meanwhile, in many emerging economies high rates of informality are a concern.

22 Structural policies ii. Contributions to rebalancing There has been progress in the euro area on market shares of traditional deficit countries, but more is needed. Export market performance Index, 1999= Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Greece Ireland Source: OECD Economic Outlook 93 database.

23 Structural policies ii. Contributions to (internal) rebalancing China s share of investment in GDP will fall with trend growth, and other demand components need to take up the slack. Fixed investment/gdp, per cent Investment-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth, Spain Portugal Italy Australia Korea Canada Russia France Japan South Africa Euro area Mexico USA Brazil Germany UK Source: OECD national accounts database; Datastream. Indonesia Turkey India Average annual GDP growth rate, per cent China

24 Structural reforms raise long-run output Difference in the level of GDP in 225 (%)

25 Summing up Still sluggish global growth Improvements among advanced economies, slowdowns for many emerging economies Policy efforts needed to achieve a stronger global recovery and address risks

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