Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates

Transcription

1 Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates August 1, Dr. Edward Yardeni -2-3 eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 1 S&P Earnings, Revenues, Margins 2 S&P Revenues & Margins 3 Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins S&P // Forward Earnings & Margins Blue Angels Valuation S&P Sectors Forward P/Es S&P Sectors Price Indexes S&P Sectors Forward Earnings Corporate Finance Dollar & Commodities Stocks & Commodities 13 Big Picture 1 US Economic Indicators - China 1-1 Eurozone 1 August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

3 S&P Figure 1. S&P INDEX S&P (21.) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1 Note: Note: Dotted line shows /31/ close. Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 2. S&P BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: -* -.% (1) -.% () -1.% () -.% (2) -.% () -.% (2) -.% (3) -.% (1) -.% (3) -.% () -13.3% () day moving average. * Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of % or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 1 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

4 13 1 Figure 3. S&P Earnings, Revenues, Margins S&P REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (TR weekly data) (dollars) Q Revenues Per Share 2-week Forward* Actual (x) S&P EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL OPERATING EARNINGS (dollars) Earnings Per Share 2-week Forward* Thomson Reuters Operating (x) S&P Operating (x) S&P PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES (percent) S&P Operating Profit Margins 2-week Forward* (.) Thomson Reuters (.) S&P (.) Q1 Q1 Q1 * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation (for actual revenues) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (for forward revenues), and Bureau of the Census. Q Page 2 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

5 Figure. S&P Revenues & Margins S&P REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES (yearly percent change) Q1 Jun S&P Revenues* (.3) Business Sales** (-.) * Using US dollars per share and based on companies in the S&P index at the start of each quarter. ** Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor s Corporation. 13 Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (Thomson Reuters data) & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFIT MARGIN (without IVA & CCAdj) 13 Corporate Profits After Tax* (as a percent of nominal GDP) (blue line) Q1 Q1 3 2 S&P Operating Profit Margin Using TR Earnings** (percent, quarterly, nsa) (red line) * After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. ** Operating Proft Margin derived using revenues from S&P and earnings from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

6 Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 13 1 Figure. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 1 1 Consensus Forecasts Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* S&P PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 1 Consensus Forecasts Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

7 13 1 Figure. S&P // Forward Earnings & Margins S&P // FORWARD EARNINGS (dollars per share, ratio scale) Forward Earnings* S&P LargeCap () S&P MidCap () S&P SmallCap () * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure. S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS* (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) S&P (.) S&P (.1) S&P (.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

8 Blue Angels 2 Figure. S&P, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION S&P / S&P Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // x1 x x x1 2 1 x13 x 1 x 1 1 x * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION All Country World Ex-US MSCI Index (In local currencies) / Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // 3 x 3 3 x1 3 2 x x x * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

9 Figure. Valuation FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P LargeCap (1.1) S&P MidCap (1.) S&P SmallCap (1.) * Daily stock price index divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 2 Figure. MSCI FORWARD P/E (weekly) 2 Capped at Forward P/E* Emerging Markets (.1) EMU (13.3) Japan (13.3) UK (.) US (1.3) * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

10 S&P Sectors Forward P/Es Figure 13. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (S&P forward P/Es by sector) P/E (1.) INDUSTRIALS (.) CONSUMER STAPLES (.) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (.) ENERGY (3.) MATERIALS (.) FINANCIALS (13.) TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (1.) HEALTH CARE (.) UTILITIES (1.1) Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

11 S&P Sectors Price Indexes Figure 1. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P sector price indexes J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D INDUSTRIALS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2 2 CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2 ENERGY MATERIALS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D FINANCIALS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D HEALTH CARE UTILITIES J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

12 Figure. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (S&P forward earnings* by sector) S&P Sectors Forward Earnings Annual consensus estimates Forward earnings INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES 1 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY 1 MATERIALS FINANCIALS 1 TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES HEALTH CARE 1 UTILITIES * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

13 Figure. S&P DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized) Buybacks Dividends S&P Index S&P FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD (percent) S&P Forward Earnings Yield* (.) Moody s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (3.) Corporate Finance Q1 Jul Q2 / * Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P index. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Figure 1. M&A ACTIVITY: UNITED STATES* (billion US dollars, quarterly) Quarterly (2.1) Q * Excludes spinoffs. Source: Dealogic. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

14 Dollar & Commodities Figure 1. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1=) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Figure 1. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) * Nearby futures price. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

15 Figure. Stocks & Commodities EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. Figure S&P & CRUDE OIL PRICE S&P Index Brent Crude Oil Futures Price (dollars per barrel) * Nearby futures price. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

16 1 Figure 22. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1-1 Big Picture War of 1 (1-) CPI** 1 1 Cold War (1-1) Jun World War I (11-11) World War II (13-1) Civil War (1-) * Base index from 1 to 1 is 1 =. ** 12-=. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the US. 2 Figure 23. AGE WAVE & INFLATION Age Wave* Inflation Trend** Jun Jul * Percent of labor force -3 years old. ** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 1 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

17 Figure 2. YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE (trillion dollars, saar) US Economic Indicators YRI Earned Income Proxy* Retail Sales ex Gasoline Jul * Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 2. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1 1 Figure 2. COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS* (=, sa, ratio scale) Jun Months 2/1-/3 Months 1/-/13 1 Months /-/1 32 Months /3-/ 2 Months /1-/3 23 Months /-/2 3 3 Months /1-/3 1 Months /-/1 2 Months /3-/ Months /2-2/1 Months /3-1/ * Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries. Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

18 US Economic Indicators 2 Figure 2. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, 2-wa) (23.) Jun ATA Truck Tonnage Index (=, sa) (13.1) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems. Figure 2. Page / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

19 2 Figure 2. China CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) 2 Jul Industrial Production* (.) Jul - PPI: Total Industrial Products (-1.) * Value added basis. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics. Figure 2. CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN.. 3 Non-Gold International Reserves (trillion dollars, nsa) Jul. Yuan/US$ (inverted scale) Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics.. Page 1 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

20 Figure 3. CHINA: NONGOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (-month change) MINUS MERCHANDISE TRADE SURPLUS (-month sum) (billion dollars) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. China Jul Figure 31. BANK LOANS & MONEY SUPPLY (trillion US dollars) Jul 2 China: Bank Loans (nsa) (.3) US: Bank Loans (sa) (.) China: M2 (22.3) Jul Jul Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People s Bank of China. Page 1 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

21 1 Figure 32. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION EXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION Eurozone Eurozone (Jun=.) Germany (Jun=1.) France (Jun=.) Italy (Jun=1.1) Spain (Jun=.) Source: Haver Analytics. 1 Figure 33. EUROZONE: CPI, M2, & LOANS AT MFIs* (yearly percent change) 1 CPI (Jul=.2) M2 (Jun=.) MFI Loans to Total Private Sector (Jun=.) Jun 2 2 Jun Jul * Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs). Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Page 1 / August 1, / Strategist s Handbook: Chart Updates www.

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