National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015

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1 National Economic Indicators September 8,

2 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Households Retail Sales Sep-- 8: Aug- 7 Disposable Personal Income and Expenditures Sep-8-8: Aug- 8 Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks Sep-- : Aug- 9 Personal Saving Rate Sep-8-8: Aug- Household Net Worth Sep-8- : Q- Existing Single-Family Home Sales Sep-- : Aug- New Single-Family Home Sales Sep-- : Aug- Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Sep-7-8: Aug- Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Sep-7-8: Aug- Business Investment Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Sep-- 8: Q- Real Private Construction Put in Place Sep-- : Jul- 7 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Sep-- 8: Q- 8 Real Investment in Equipment Sep-- 8: Q- 9 Real Investment in Intellectual Property Sep-- 8: Q- Trade Balance of International Trade Sep-- 8: Jul- Exchange Value of the USD Sep-- :8 Aug- Manufacturing Industrial Production Sep-- 9: Aug- Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing Sep-- 9: Aug- Indexes of Manufacturing Activity Sep-- : Aug- Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity Sep-- : Aug- Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes Sep-- : Aug- 7 Manufacturers' New Orders Sep-- 8: Jul- 8 Core Capital Goods Sep-- 8: Aug- 9 Business Inventory/Sales Ratios Sep-- : Jul-

3 Table of Contents (continued) Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page Nonfarm Payroll Employment Sep-- 8: Aug-, Unemployment Rate Measures Sep-- 8: Aug-, Labor Market Flows Sep-9- : Jul- Labor Force Participation Sep-- 8: Aug- Aggregate Weekly Hours Index Sep-- 8: Aug- 7 Average Hourly Earnings Sep-- 8: Aug- 8 Employment Cost Index Jul-- 8: Q- 9 Business Labor Productivity Sep-- 8: Q- Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business Sep-- 8: Q- Inflation Table: Gauges of Inflation Aug-- : Aug- Expenditure Price Indexes Sep-8-8: Aug-, Consumer Price Indexes Sep-- 8: Aug- Producer Price Indexes Sep-- 8: Aug- Commodity Price Indexes Aug-- : Aug- 7 Crude Oil Prices Sep-8-8-Sep- 8 TIPS Inflation Compensation Sep-- 7:7 8-Sep- 9 Monetary Policy & Financial Markets Federal Reserve System Assets Sep-- : -Sep- Monetary Policy Instruments Sep-7-9: -Sep- Real Federal Funds Rate Sep-8-8: Aug- FOMC Statement Sep-7- :, Eurodollar Futures Sep-8-8-Sep- SEP: Federal Funds Rate Sep-7- : Monetary Base Sep-- :8 -Sep- 7 M Sep-- : Aug- 8 Money Market Rates Sep-7-9: -Sep- 9 Capital Market Rates Sep-7-9: -Sep- Treasury Yield Curve Sep-- : -Sep- Risk Premium Sep-7-9: -Sep-

4 Real Gross Domestic Product Change from previous quarter at compound annual rate, % Q Q Q Q Q Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment Intellectual Property Residential Fixed Investment Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers Billions of chained (9) dollars Change in Private Inventories Net Exports of Goods & Services Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

5 Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q.9% FOMC Projection Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the September Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

6 Decomposition of Real GDP -year annual growth rates.. GDP... Productivity.... HH Employment Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

7 Retail Sales Month % Change Month Annualized % Change Month over Month % Change Jun. Jul. Aug. Total..7. x Gasoline August.% Note: Retail sales includes food services. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 7

8 Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures Month % Change Real Disposable Personal Income - August Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Month over Month % Change June July August Income... Expenditures Note: Real disposable personal Income was adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 8

9 Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks Millions of Vehicles 8 August 7.8 mil. 8 Autos and Light Trucks Light Trucks 8 8 Autos Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics 9

10 Personal Saving Rate Percent of disposable personal income September.% Note: The personal saving rate was adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near the end of. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

11 Household Net Worth 7 Percent of disposable personal income 7 Q Source: Z. Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics

12 Existing Single-Family Home Sales. Millions of Homes..... Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 99 through 999 August.9 mil Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics

13 New Single-Family Home Sales.... Millions of Homes August. mil Average Annual New Home Sales:99 through Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

14 Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits. Millions of Starts & Permits Average Housing Starts...8 Starts August.8... Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

15 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits.7 Millions of Starts & Permits.7 August... Permits Average Multi-Family Starts... Starts Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

16 Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

17 Real Private Construction Put In Place 7 9$, Billions 7 7 Real Private Residential Construction Real Private Nonresidential Construction July Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 7

18 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 8

19 Real Investment in Equipment Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate - Q.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 9

20 Real Investment in Intellectual Property Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q 8.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

21 Balance of International Trade Current $, Billions - Petroleum Balance Non-Petroleum Balance Trade Balance July -.9 Bil Note: Customs Value of Trade Balance Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

22 Exchange Value of the USD Index, March 97 = 9 August Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

23 Industrial Production 7 = Mining Overall Manufacturing August Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

24 Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing 8 8 Percent August Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

25 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity Diffusion Index, percent ISM (Left Axis) August. Richmond Fed (Right Axis) Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics

26 Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity Diffusion Index, percent ISM (Left Axis) August 9. Richmond Fed Service Sector Index: Revenues (Right Axis) Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics

27 ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: July Aug. July Aug. Purchasing Managers Index.7. Non-Manufacturing Index. 9. Production.. Business Activity.9.9 New Orders..7 New Orders.8. Employment.7. Employment 9.. Supplier Deliveries Supplier Deliveries.. Inventories Inventories 7.. Prices. 9. Prices.7.8 Backlog of Orders.. Backlog of Orders.. New Export Orders 8.. New Export Orders.. Imports.. Imports.. DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics 7

28 Manufacturers New Orders Current $, Billions July Twelve-Month Moving Average Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 8

29 Core Capital Goods 7 7 Current $, Billions New Orders August 7 7 Shipments Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 9

30 Business Inventory/Sales Ratio.7 Percent.7. Retailers.. July.... Total Business.. Manufacturers Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

31 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Millions of Persons August. mil Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

32 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons July & August Avg. Monthly Change Aug. 7 Jul. Jun. May Apr Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

33 Unemployment Rate Percent August.% FOMC Projection Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q levels, from the September meeting. Red dots indicate median projections Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

34 Measures of Labor Utilization 9 Percent U: U + Involuntarily Part-Time August U: U + Discouraged + Marginally Attached 7 U: Official Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

35 Labor Market Flows. Percent. Hires Rate* July.... Job Openings Rate**. Quits Rate* Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings. Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics

36 Labor Force Participation 8 7 Percent of Population August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

37 Aggregate Weekly Hours Index Index, 7 = August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 7

38 Average Hourly Earnings. Month % Change Monthly % Change Aug..% Jul..% Jun..% May.%.. August.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 8

39 Employment Cost Index Year over Year % Change. Benefits Cost.. Total Compensation Q.. Q. YoY % Change Total Comp.. Benefits Cost.7 Wages & Salaries. Wages and Salaries Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 9

40 Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business Year over Year % Change Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q.% Q -.% Q -.% Q.% Post-War Average - Q.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

41 Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business Year over Year % Change - Q.7% Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q -.% Q.% Q.7% Q.% Alternate Series Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

42 Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: July Aug. YoY % Personal Consumption Expenditures... Core (excludes Food and Energy).9.. Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: July Aug. YoY % All Items Core (excludes Food and Energy)..9.8 Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: July Aug. YoY % Finished Goods Core (excludes Food and Energy). -.. Core Intermediate Goods Crude Goods Spot Commodity Price Index [Percent Change from Previous Month]: July Aug. YoY % CRB Spot Commodity Price Index Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics

43 Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index.. Month % Change.. FOMC Projection % Longer-run Target September.% Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q/Q percent changes, from the September meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

44 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index.. Month % Change % Longer-run Target September.% FOMC Projection Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q/Q percent changes, from the September meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index excludes expenditures on gasoline and food services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

45 Consumer Price Indexes Month % Change All Items Core CPI August July August CPI: All Items.%.% Core CPI.8%.8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

46 Producer Price Indexes 8 Month % Change 8 Core Finished Goods August - - All Finished Goods August (percent) All Finished Goods -.9% Core Finished Goods.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

47 Commodity Price Indexes Month % Change Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis) PPI Core Intermediate Goods (Left Axis) Month % Change August Price Indexes July August PPI Core Intermed. Goods -.% -.% CRBS Spot Commodities -.% -.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 7

48 Crude Oil Prices Current $/ Barrel Spot Price September 8, Futures Price Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil. Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg 8

49 TIPS Inflation Compensation Percent... -Year Years Ahead -Year September 8th Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics 9

50 Federal Reserve System Assets $, Billions Agency Debt: $87 Total: $,8 Miscellaneous: $8 Agency MBS: $8 Treasury Securities: $, Agency Debt: $ Total: $, Miscellaneous: $9 Agency MBS: $,7 Treasury Securities: $, 9// 9// Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

51 Monetary Policy Instruments Percent Federal Funds Target Rate Interest Rate Paid on Reserves Federal Funds Rate Target Range Primary Credit Rate September rd Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

52 Real Federal Funds Rate Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index - August Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

53 FOMC Statement September 7, Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current to / percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its percent objective over the medium term. Source: Board of Governors

54 Continued The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by basis points at this meeting. September 7, Source: Board of Governors

55 Eurodollar Futures Percent September 8, September, Source: CME Group via Bloomberg

56 Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate Percent Longer run - Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year. Projections made for the September meeting. Source: Board of Governors

57 Monetary Base Current $, Billions September th Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 7

58 M 9 8 Month % Change August.% Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 8

59 Money Market Rates. Percent. Primary Credit Rate September th Month LIBOR.. IOER Federal Funds Rate. -Month T-Bill Fed Reverse Repo Rate on Treasuries Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg 9

60 Capital Market Rates. Percent Corporate BBB Bond Rate Year Conventional Mortgage Rate September th.... -Yr. Treasury Bond Rate.. Corporate AAA Bond Rate.. 9. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

61 Treasury Yield Curve Percent September, September, M Yrs Yrs Yrs 7 Yrs Yrs Time to Maturity Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

62 Risk Premium 8 Percent, BofA Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - Yr. Treasury Yield September th Year Rolling Average Risk Premium 9 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

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