The US Economic Outlook

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1 IHS ECONOMICS US Economic Outlook The US Economic Outlook 14 January 2016 ihs.com Patrick Newport, Director of Long Term Forecasting ,

2 The US economy on a moderate growth path US Economic Outlook / January 2016 An inventory correction held back growth in the second half of Consumer spending is supported by solid gains in employment, real disposable income, and housing asset values. Housing construction will steadily recover in response to rising employment, easing credit, and a higher household formation rate. International trade is creating headwinds for the US economy due to a strong dollar exchange rate and subpar growth in key export markets. A two-year federal budget agreement and suspension of the debt ceiling boosts near-term spending and reduces policy uncertainty. Interest rates will gradually increase through Real GDP growth will pick up from 2.4% in 2015 to 2.7% in

3 Private employment at an all-time high Private employment 124,000 Thousands 120, , , , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

4 Steady job growth Payroll employment growth 4 Y/y percent change United States Michigan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 12-month payroll employment gains US 12-month payroll gains Michigan12-month payroll gains Millions 2 Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Close to full employment!!! Unemployment rate Percent United States Michigan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 Participation rate: near 1978 levels Labor force paticipation rate Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 US business-cycle expansions since start of recoveries Business-cycle expansions lasting six years or more 140 (First quarter = 100) Quarters since start of recovery present Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Little Wage inflation Employment cost index, wages and salaries Year-over-year percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 Stagnant productivity growth Nonfarm business output per hour 6 Year-over-year percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11 Services recorded the largest employment increases during the 12 months ended November 2015 Change in payroll employment, thousands Prof. & business services Health & social services Leisure & hospitality Retail trade Construction Financial services Transport & warehousing Wholesale trade Education Other services Local government Manufacturing Information State government Federal government Utilities Mining & logging Total change = 2.6 million IHS 11

12 Oil prices and drilling activity have collapsed Weekly oil rig count and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price Oil rigs (Left scale, thousands) Sources: Baker Hughes [http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-reportsother] and EIA [http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=w] WTI price (Right scale, USD/barrel) 12

13 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 A widening trade deficit will contribute to a retreat in the dollar s real exchange value in Real trade-weighted dollar index 1.6 Index, 2009 = Major trading partners Other important trading partners 13

14 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 The Institute for Supply Management s indexes signal a stall in manufacturing and moderate growth in services ISM indexes 65 Over 50 indicates expansion Manufacturing index Nonmanufacturing index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) 14

15 Industrial production growth has slowed sharply in response to the dollar s appreciation Real GDP and industrial production 8 US Economic Outlook / January Percent change Real GDP Industrial production 15

16 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Sources of growth in US real GDP Contribution to real GDP growth 4 Percentage points Real GDP Consumer spending Nonresidential investment Residential investment Inventories Exports Imports Government Domestic demand 16

17 US economic growth by sector US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Real GDP and its components Percent change Real GDP Consumption Residential investment Business fixed investment Federal government State & local government Exports Imports

18 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Employment growth has been steadier than real GDP growth during the current expansion Real GDP and employment growth 6 Percent change, annual rate Real GDP Employment 18

19 Other key US indicators US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Key indicators Percent change Industrial production Payroll employment Light-vehicle sales (Millions) Housing starts (Millions) Consumer Price Index Core CPI Brent crude oil price (USD/barrel) Federal funds rate (%) year Treasury yield (%)

20 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Interest rates will rise from exceptionally low levels Interest rates Percent Federal funds 10-year Treasury 30-year mortgage BAA corporate 20

21 Job growth will slow as the US economy approaches full employment Payroll employment 4 Percent change, annual rate

22 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 After an inventory correction, manufacturing production growth will rebound in the second half of 2016 Industrial production and real GDP Year-over-year percent change All manufacturing Excluding information technologies Real GDP 22

23 US industrial production growth US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Industrial production Percent change All manufacturing Motor vehicles & parts Computers & electronics Electrical equip. & appliances Machinery Textiles Furniture Chemicals

24 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Consumer price inflation will pick up as commodity prices recover Inflation rates Year-over-year percent change All-urban CPI Core CPI (excluding food and energy) 24

25 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Worker compensation will accelerate as labor markets tighten and the Affordable Care Act is implemented Labor compensation Year-over-year percent change Total compensation Wages & salaries Benefits 25

26 The consumer market environment is improving US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Consumer market indicators Percent change Real consumption Real disposable income Real household net worth Payroll employment Real wage rate Consumption price deflator Light-vehicle sales (Millions) Single-family home sales (Millions)

27 Crude oil prices will gradually recover US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Price of Dated Brent crude oil Dollars/barrel Current US dollars 2014 US dollars 27

28 US crude oil prices and natural gas prices US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Crude oil and natural gas prices Dollars/barrel Dollars/million Btu Energy Crude oil, WTI (Left scale) Natural gas, Henry Hub (Right scale) 28

29 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Lower gasoline prices have brought substantial savings for US households Retail gasoline price and annualized spending on motor fuels Dollars/gallon Thousand dollars/household Retail gasoline price Spending on motor fuels per household (Right scale) 29

30 Consumer spending will be supported by solid growth in real disposable income Real consumer spending and disposable income 6 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Percent change Tax increases undermined growth in Real consumer spending Real disposable income 30

31 Real household net worth has reached a new high US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Household assets and liabilities 120 Trillions of 2014 dollars Assets Liabilities Net worth 31

32 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Light-vehicle sales will peak in 2017; low gasoline prices boost demand for light trucks Light-vehicle sales Millions of units, annual rates Total Cars Light trucks 32

33 The consumer spending expansion is broadening Nominal consumer spending Percent change Medical care & products Transportation services Vehicles & parts Food & beverages Home furnishings Computers & software Recreation services Apparel

34 Healthcare will take a rising share of personal consumption expenditures in the decade ahead Personal consumption by category Percent of total consumption Food Energy Health Housing services 34

35 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 The recovery in housing markets is gaining momentum Sustained job growth will support increases in housing demand. Credit availability is improving for home buyers and builders. Supplies of new and existing homes are tight, driving up prices. Multifamily units will account for about one-third of housing starts. Young adults have postponed homeownership, resulting in pent-up demand. Sales to first-time buyers are rising rapidly. Baby boomers are starting to downsize. 35

36 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 A recovery in household formation will support further gains in housing starts Housing starts and formation Millions Housing starts Household formation 36

37 Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Single-family housing starts and sales Millions of units Millions of units Housing starts (Left scale) Home sales (Right scale) 37

38 Nonresidential fixed investment has slowed US Webcast / January 2016 Most companies are investing at steady rates However, companies exposed to foreign competition (manufacturing), low oil and gas prices, and falling agricultural prices have cut capital spending sharply Agricultural machinery is down 48% year-over-year, due to falling agricultural prices Mining and oilfield machinery equipment is down 48% year-over-year blame low oil prices Railroad equipment is down 56% year-over-year Special industrial machinery is down 20% year-over-year, thanks to the strong dollar Mine and well structures are down 44% year-over-year 38

39 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Core capital goods orders and shipments remain weak Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft 3-month moving avg., bil. USD New orders Shipments 39

40 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Business fixed investment growth is held back by the plunge in spending on mining and petroleum structures Real business fixed investment Year-over-year percent change Equipment Structures Intellectual products 40

41 US Webcast / January 2016 Business equipment investment spending will pick up Contributions to annualized real GDP growth Percentage points

42 US Webcast / January 2016 Building structures: A small plus for growth Contributions to annualized real GDP growth Percentage points

43 US Webcast / January 2016 Drilling for oil will edge up as oil prices rise Mining and wells contribution to annualized real GDP growth Percentage points

44 US real construction growth by sector US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Real investment in structures Percent change Total construction Residential Commercial Manufacturing Mines & wells Healthcare Public utilities Highways & streets Public education

45 The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2016 and other legislation bring clarity to federal fiscal policy The federal debt ceiling is suspended through March 2017 and the federal government is funded through September In December, Congress enacted appropriations and tax legislation. A $1.1-billion omnibus spending bill specifies fiscal 2016 expenditures, as well as a five-year highway funding bill. Numerous temporary tax credits are made permanent, including the R&D tax credit, child tax credit, and earned income tax credit. Some taxes enacted under Obamacare are delayed, including the excise tax on medical equipment sales and the tax on higher-premium employerprovided health insurance (postponed to 2020). The Export-Import Bank is reauthorized. US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Budget actions will add 0.2 percentage point to 2016 real GDP growth. 45

46 The US federal budget will remain in deficit US federal budget balance Billions of USD, fiscal years , , , Unified budget balance (Left scale) Balance as percent of GDP (Right scale) 46

47 The gap between federal expenditures and revenues will stay in the 2 3% range of GDP Federal revenues and expenditures* Percent of GDP Federal revenues Federal expenditures * Fiscal years, unified budget 47

48 Federal government debt remains high relative to GDP Publicly held federal debt Percent of GDP

49 A gradual acceleration in the global economy US Economic Outlook / January 2016 The world economy remains in low gear; only a modest pickup in growth is expected in Eurozone growth will improve slightly, aided by monetary stimulus, currency depreciation, and pent-up demand. China s economic growth will slow further in 2016 because of imbalances in credit, housing, and industrial markets. The plunge in materials prices is restraining growth in the commodityexporting countries of the Americas, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Prospects for emerging markets depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and allocate capital more efficiently. 49

50 Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will achieve the fastest growth in real GDP Real GDP 6 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Annual percent change NAFTA Other Americas Western Europe Emerging Europe Mideast- N. Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Japan Other Asia- Pacific

51 The US current account will remain in deficit US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Current-account balance , , Current-account balance (Left scale, billion US dollars) Balance as percent of GDP (Right scale) 51

52 US Economic Outlook / January 2016 A widening trade deficit will contribute to a retreat in the dollar s real exchange value in Real trade-weighted dollar index 1.6 Index, 2009 = Major trading partners Other important trading partners 52

53 Risks to the US forecast US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Scenario Mild recession (Probability = 20%) Recovery gains momentum (Probability = 15%) Baseline forecast (Probability = 65%) Characteristics Weaker global growth and a stronger dollar hurt exports. A stock market plunge undermines consumer confidence. Businesses reduce hiring and investment in structures. As a result, the US experiences a mild recession in the second and third quarters of Productivity accelerates, raising potential GDP growth. Stronger global economic growth lifts US exports. Construction surges in response to increased household formation and easing credit standards. The Fed raises interest rates more quickly in The Fed gradually raises interest rates in Housing markets steadily recover over the next five years. Global economic growth picks up moderately. The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2016 sets the parameters for federal fiscal policy over the next two years. 53

54 Real GDP growth in alternative scenarios US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Real GDP 5 Percent change, annual rate Baseline (65%) Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (15%) 54

55 Light-vehicle sales in alternative scenarios US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Light-vehicle sales 20 Millions of units, annual rate Baseline (65%) Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (15%) 55

56 Housing starts in alternative scenarios US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Housing starts Millions of units, annual rate Baseline (65%) Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (15%) 56

57 Bottom line for the US economy US Economic Outlook / January 2016 Consumer spending will be supported by gains in employment, real disposable income, and household net worth. Homebuilding will rise as credit availability improves and demand from young adults strengthens. Foreign trade will be a drag on US economic growth through 2018, due to a strong dollar and sluggish growth in major export markets. Real business fixed investment will post solid gains, led by information technology equipment and commercial structures. The Federal Reserve will gradually raise the federal funds rate; it will reach an equilibrium at 3.25% in late Core inflation will edge upward to the central bank s 2% target. Forecast risks are weighted to the downside. 57

58 Thank you! IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

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