Financial Planning Association of Colorado

Transcription

1 Financial Planning Association of Colorado Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

2 Real GDP Growth Percent Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Quarterly GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and July 2014 NABE Forecast.

3 National Employment Thousands, Monthover-Month Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and NABE Outlook June 2014.

4 National Employment Months to Recovery Percent Present Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

5 Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) Thousands Job Openings Source: Bureau of labor and Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted.

6 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change Disposable Income Percent Change Personal Consumption % 2.8% % 2.8% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

7 Household Wealth $ Billions 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate 0 3Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

8 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Financial Obligations Ratio (R) FOR Debt Service Ratio (L) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

9 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985= Recession 8 months Mountain Region Recession 8 months Recession 18 months United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

10 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail Sales YOY, Percentage Change , ,000 10,000 5, Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Autodata Corp., Motor Intelligence, U.S. Census Bureau.

11 Nominal Corporate Profits and U.S. Business Fixed Investment Percent Change 35.0 Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change 10.0 Business Fixed Investment % 5.5% % % Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

12 ISM Indices 70 ISM Manufacturing Index 70 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

13 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 1-year Home Price Change, March 2014 New York Denver Boston Dallas Minneapolis Chicago Seattle Atlanta Miami Detroit San Francisco Las Vegas 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Percent Change Source: Standard & Poor s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

14 Housing Affordability Index Composite Index Jan-81 Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Source: National Association of Realtors.

15 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

16 Money and Interest Rates

17 The FED QE 1 QE 2 Fed promises near zero interest rates until mid-2013, 2014, 2015, 2016? Operation Twist Swaps $ Millions 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Other Assets Mortgage Backed Securities Federal Agency Debt Securities Treasury Securities Tapering 0 1/3/ /5/2008 9/8/ Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet.

18 Interest Rates Percent Interest Rates, Year T-Note Month T-Bill Source: U.S. Treasury.

19 U.S. Summary GDP growing after rough Q1 Housing in recovery Balance sheets getting stronger Consumers stay in the marketplace Business investment grows Fiscal drag (slower growth of G) continues but is a smaller issue International economies grow but at a subdued pace Tapering continues with modest impact on long term rates Inflation low and stable

20 The Colorado Economy

21 Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands Among top 7 states for percentage growth 9 th fastest for absolute growth 22 nd - most population in U.S. Continued net migration into the state % of population in 12 Front Range counties Source: Colorado Demography Office.

22 Colorado Employment and Education, 2013 Other 69% Employment by Occupation Management 4% Bus. and financial operations 7% Computer and math 4% Architecture and engineering 2% Science 1% Education training 6% Arts and entertainment 2% Healthcare 5% Educational Attainment Adults over age 25 with a bachelor s degree or higher U.S. 29.1% Colorado 37.5% Adults over age 25 with a high school diploma U.S. 86.4% Colorado 90.6% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

23 Colorado Employment Workers Added Thousands Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

24 Employment Change June June 2014 Employment in Thousands 2,480 2,470 2,460 2,450 2,440 2,430 2,420 2,410 2,400 2,390 2,380 2,370 2,360 2, PBS L&H EHS Govt TTU Const MFG Total jobs gained: 69,100 Mining Other Info Net change: 66,300 Financial Total jobs lost: 2, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).

25 Location Quotient Colorado 2.5 LQ Mining and Logging Information 1.5 L&H PBS Financial activites Other TTU Construction 0.7 Manufacturing % -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. EHS 3 Year CAGR

26 The Top 5 vs. The Bottom 5 States Jobs Added in 2014 and 2015 Forecast North Dakota Nevada Texas Colorado Florida New Jersey Connecticut Kentucky Virginia New Mexico 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Texas Arizona North Dakota Colorado Florida Mississippi Louisiana New Mexico Maine Illinois 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Source: Moody s Economy.com

27 Employment Recovery National, State, and Local Percent Employment Recovery: National, State, and Local Denver and Boulder MSAs Colorado 0.0 US Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

28 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Employment Growth Rate, June 2014 YoY Greeley Colorado 2.8% Unemployment Rate May 2014 Colorado 5.5% NSA 5.8% SA Greeley Boulder Denver-Aurora- Broomfield Fort Collins-Loveland Pueblo Boulder Fort Collins-Loveland Denver-Aurora- Broomfield Pueblo Grand Junction Colorado Springs Grand Junction Colorado Springs Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

29 Personal Income Growth 2013

30 Colorado Per Capita Personal Income By MSA, 2012 United States $43,735 Colorado $45,775 Boulder Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Fort Collins-Loveland Colorado Springs Grand Junction Pueblo Greeley $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2012 annual data.

31 Consumer Price Index All Items Percent CPI Percent Change, United States Denver- Boulder- Greeley % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

32 Commodity Prices, July 2014 Averages Compared to Five-Year High and Low Corn ($/bushel) Wheat ($/bushel) Molybdenum ($/pound) Oil ($/barrel) Source: Bloomberg. Commodity Prices, July 2014 Averages Compared to Five-Year High and Low Low $3.14 $3.88 $8.55 $45.88 Current Price $3.41 $6.38 $13.25 $98.03 High $8.58 $9.18 $18.25 $113.93

33 Construction

34 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q Q Colorado 7% Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Colorado 1.4% Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Grand Junction Greeley Boulder Fort Collins-Loveland Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Boulder Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Fort Collins-Loveland Colorado Springs Greeley Pueblo Percent Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

35 Residential Building Permits 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Residential Building Permits Single Family Multifamily 27, June YTD Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

36 Value of Construction Colorado $ Millions 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Nonresidential Residential Nonbuilding ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 June YTD Source: McGraw-Hill Construction.

37 Retail Trade Sales Colorado Taxable Retail Sales 12-Month Rolling Sum 12-Month Rolling Sum, $ Millions Percent Change Colorado Retail Trade Sales Nominal Growth Real Growth Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

38 Colorado General Fund Gross Revenue (excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers) $ Millions $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $9,500 $9,000 $8,500 $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 General Fund Projections December 2013 December 2012 June 2014 December 2011 March 2014 September 2013 September 2012 $ Millions $10,900 $10,400 $9,900 $9,400 $8,900 $8,400 $7,900 $7,400 $6,900 $6,400 FY 2006 Colorado General Fund FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Source: Colorado Office of State Budgeting and Planning, excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers, March FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

39 State Summary Colorado outperforms nation in employment growth Diversified economy Falling unemployment Growing population Weather a factor for Ag and Tourism Home prices rising slowly, steadily Construction and Technology strong Airport supports growth

40 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations Colorado United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 2014

41 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 2, month total new entity filings 95,000 2,450 90,000 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 Employment New Entity Filings 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 2, ,000 Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team.

42 Colorado Economic Indicators Year Consumer Price Inflation Colorado Economic Indicators Percent Change Retail Sales Percent Change Personal Income Unemployment Rate Percent Change Employment 2012 a a a Historical data.

43 Concerns Impact of Federal Government Finance on State Haves and Have Nots State Government Finance Higher Education Transportation Fracking Impact of Natural Disasters Marijuana Impacts

44 Marijuana Tax Revenue Collected

45 Marijuana Tax Collections Per Capita

46

47 Thank you

48 List of All Things Great 1 st in labor supply rank (Forbes) 2 nd best state to start a business (CNBC) 2 nd best for entrepreneurship and innovation (Inc. Magazine) 3 rd VC investments per $1k for State GDP (OEDIT) 4 th for early-stage VC investment (OEDIT) 5 th strongest housing market (OEDIT) 6 th best Places for Business and Careers (Forbes) 7 th best economy (CNBC) 8 th in America s Health Rankings (AHR) 8 th in technology and innovation (CNBC) Home to four of the Top 10 High-Tech Startup Density (Kauffman Foundation) Home to four of the Top 25 Best-Performing large cities (Milken Institute)