TIPRO Legislative Update San Antonio, TX August 22, Ed McClellan Washington National Tax Services. Bobby Marandi PwC Houston.
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1 TIPRO Legislative Update San Antonio, TX August 22, 2009 Ed McClellan Washington National Tax Services Bobby Marandi PwC Houston PwC
2 Agenda Economic & budget outlook Congressional balance of power Administration tax proposals Oil and gas tax proposals Climate change legislation 2009 tax legislative priorities Outlook for tax reform Page 1
3 Growth Rate in Real GDP Annualized Growth in GDP Long-term Average: 3.0% , 1st Qtr: -6.4% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, August Page 2
4 Potential for Unemployment to Rise to 10% 12 Peak: 10.8% July 2009: 9.4% Peak: 7.8% 2 0 Page Unemployment Rate
5 Job Losses Outpace 1981 Recession Accelerating Pace of Job Loss 1% 0% Month of Peak Employment Jul 1981 Dec 2007 Percent Job Loss -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Months From Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, August Page 4
6 Speed of Spend-Out of Stimulus Legislation $787.2 billion over 11 years 100% $719 b $755 b $782 b 75% $584 b 50% $185 b 25% 0% Source: CBO Page 5
7 Federal Deficit Outlook 0.0% -2.0% CBO March 2009 Baseline Historical Average = -2.4% Percentage of GDP -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% CBO March 2009 Estimate of Obama Budget -12.0% -14.0% Previous post-war max = -6.0% in 1983 (reached -30.3% in 1943) Source: Congressional Budget Office, March 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations. Page 6
8 Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Federal Spending Under CBO s Alternative Fiscal Scenario Source: Congressional Budget Office, December 2007 Page 7
9 Sources of Growth in Projected Federal Spending on Medicare & Medicaid Source: Congressional Budget Office, March 2008 Page 8
10 Congressional Balance of Power Democrat Republican Vacancy House Senate 60* 40 * Includes 2 Independents (Sanders and Lieberman) Page 9
11 Congressional Budget Agreement Congress approves budget agreement authorizing $764 billion in net tax relief over five years Extension of 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for taxpayers below $250,000 Three years of AMT relief Permanent extension of estate tax at 2009 levels Two years of extenders Details left to House and Senate tax committees PAYGO budget rules / House Blue Dogs Budget agreement provides reconciliation protection for health care and education Reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered in the Senate Page 10
12 President s Budget: 2001 & 2003 Tax Cuts Make 2001 & 2003 tax cuts permanent ($2,655 billion) For income over $250,000 (married)/$200,000 (single): Reinstate 39.6% and 36% tax rates Reinstate limitation on itemized deductions ( Pease ) Reinstate personal exemption phase-out ( PEP ) Impose 20% rate on capital gains and dividends Impose 28% cap on itemized deductions Make 2009 estate tax policy permanent 45% tax rate and $3.5 million per-person exemption Permanent 2009 individual AMT relief ($576 billion) Page 11
13 Paying for Health Care Reform Administration proposals include: Impose 28% cap on itemized deductions ($269 billion) House proposal (H.R. 3200): Individual surcharge ($543.9 billion) - 1% ( ); 2% (2013 and beyond) for AGI $350,000-$500, % ( ); 3% (2013 and beyond) for AGI $500,000-$1 million - 5.4% for AGI over $1 million Delay worldwide interest allocation rules until 2020 ($26.1 billion) Limit tax treaty benefits for payments to foreign parent companies ($7.5 billion) Codification of economic substance doctrine and penalties ($3.6 billion) Finance Committee proposals: Considering cutback on individual exclusion for employer-provided health care Page 12
14 President s Budget: Key Business Tax Proposals Attacks classification rules for foreign structures (Check-the-Box) Defer US deduction for US activities that generate deferred foreign income (Deduction Matching Concept) Create additional hurdles to using foreign tax credits to offset US tax on repatriated foreign earnings (E&P Pooling) Extend CFC Look-Thru & Active Financing Exception Codify economic substance doctrine Repeal LIFO inventory accounting method Reinstate Superfund taxes Make the research tax credit permanent Expand the net operating loss (NOL) carryback period No reduction of US corporate tax rate Cap & Trade carbon emissions limits Page 13
15 Energy Related Tax Revenue Measures Eliminate Oil and Gas Company Preferences Repeal manufacturing deduction for oil and natural gas companies Repeal percentage depletion for oil and natural gas companies Levy excise tax on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas Repeal expensing of intangible drilling costs Increase geological and geophysical amortization period to 7 years Repeal deduction for tertiary injectants Repeal passive loss exception for working interests in oil and natural gas properties Repeal enhanced oil recovery credit Repeal marginal well tax credit Page 14
16 Energy Related Revenue Measures Reinstate Superfund Taxes Climate revenues (clean energy technologies) Repeal ultra-deepwater oil and gas R&D program Repeal Energy Policy Act fee prohibition and mandatory permit funds Replace the inland waterways fuel tax with a lock usage fee (receipt effect) Page 15
17 Oil and Gas Tax Legislation S. 888 (Sen. Charles Schumer, D-NY) Deny domestic production deduction for large, integrated oil companies Terminate percentage depletion allowance for oil and gas wells Terminate accelerated depreciation Terminate deduction for intangible drilling costs Terminate marginal well tax credit Require revaluation of LIFO inventories Classify natural gas gathering lines as 15-year property S (Sen. John Kerry, D-MA) Deny domestic production deduction for oil, natural gas, or related products Terminate percentage depletion allowance for oil and gas wells Terminate deduction for intangible drilling costs Terminate marginal well tax credit Repeal passive activity rule exception for oil or gas property Extend geological and geophysical amortization to seven years Page 16
18 Cap-and-Trade Energy Legislation On June 26, the House approved the American Clean Energy and Security (ACES) Act by vote. The bill has 7 main components: 1.Cap and trade programs for greenhouse gases (GHGs) 2.Tax credits and rebates for low-income families 3.Renewable energy standard for electricity (6% in 2012, 20% by 2020) 4.Carbon storage research corporation (industry funded) 5.Loans to manufacturers of advanced technology vehicles 6.Clean Energy Development Admin. (DOE loan and guarantee program) 7.Fuel-efficient vehicle vouchers CBO estimates that this legislation would result in additional revenues of $872.8 billion but direct spending is estimated to increase by $863.8 billion (over 10 years). Page 17
19 Distribution and Auction of Allowances Distribution of Emission Allowance Value (cash or allowance) in % 9% 1.5% 15% 14.4% 2% 7% 6.25% 9.9% Electricity suppliers (the vast majority to electricity load distribution companies). Benefit must be passed on to consumers (affecting other markets) Local distribution companies of natural gas. Benefit must be passed on to consumers (affecting other markets) States for home heating oil consumers Auctioned to benefit low income consumers Energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries Petroleum refiners States to support renewable energy and energy efficiency Promote technological advances Auctioned or distributed for other objectives Page 18
20 What s Next in Energy Legislation Senate action possible in the fall Note: If Congress does not act, EPA has asserted authority to implement GHG controls by regulation Other Factors: -Copenhagen Conference in December Other energy legislation (e.g., Bingaman bill) Page 19
21 International Competitiveness Statutory National Corporate Tax Rates 23 OECD Countries and the United States, % United States 45% OECD, Excluding U.S. (GDP-weighted mean) 40% 35% 30% 25% Source: OECD Data (2006). Page 20
22 International Comparisons Corporate Rate Competitiveness Combined Corporate Tax Rates for OECD Countries, Tax Year 2008 OECD Average = 26.6% Page 21 Ireland Iceland Slovak Republic Poland Turkey Hungary Czech Republic Switzerland Greece Denmark Austria Netherlands Finland Portugal Korea Italy United Kingdom Sweden Norway Mexico Spain New Zealand Australia Germany Luxembourg Canada Belgium France United States Japan
23 US Tax Reform Options Income Tax Reform Options Rangel Bill Previous Treasury Approaches to Improve Business Tax Competitiveness for the 21 st Century (December 2007) -28% corporate tax rate (economic depreciation) -31% corporate tax rate (current depreciation) -35% expensing -Territorial tax option Volcker task force Consumption Tax Reform Options Treasury Business Activities Tax Graetz Competitive Tax Plan Page 22
24 PwC Washington National Tax Services Ed McClellan, Principal PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP Legislative & Regulatory Services 1301K Street, NW Suite 800W Washington, DC Direct: Former Tax Counsel to Senate Finance Committee Page 23
25 PwC Washington National Tax Services Bobby Marandi, Partner PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP 1201 Louisiana Suite 2900 Houston, TX Direct: Page 24
26 PwC 2009 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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