U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

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1 U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

2 1-month % change 1.5 Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

3 1-month % change 1.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4 Personal Income 1-month % change Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.45 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 Consumer Confidence/Sentiment Index Recession Confidence (Jul-26-release, Jul = 97.3) Sentiment (Aug-26-release, Aug = 89.8) Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board

6 Real GDP 1-quarter % change, annualized Aug-26-release, Q2 = 1.1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 4-week MA Thousands of Initial Claims Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment Initial Claims (Aug-25-release, Aug 20=264) Recession Unemployment Rate (Aug-05-release, Jul=4.9) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor

8 New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars Durable Goods (Aug-25-release, Jul = 228.9) Excl. Transportation (Aug-25-release, Jul = 150) Recession Source: Bureau of the Census

9 Home Sales Thousands of New Homes 1,400 Thousands of Existing Homes 6,800 1,200 1,000 5, , , ,800 New Home Sales (Aug-23- release, Jul = 654) Existing Home Sales (Aug-24- release, Jul = 4820) Recession Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors

10 Housing Starts and Permits Thousands 2,300 1,900 1,500 1, Recession Housing Starts (Aug-16-release, Jul = 1211) Permits Issued (Aug-24-release, Jul = 1144) Source: Bureau of the Census

11 Index of Leading Economic Indicators 140 Index Recession Leading Index (Aug-18-release, Jul = 124.3) Source: The Conference Board

12 Industrial Production 1-month % change Aug-16-release, Jul = 0.7 Source: Federal Reserve Board

13 Percent 87 Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate Recession CU Rate (Aug-16-release, Jul = 75.4) Historic Average (1948-present) Source: Federal Reserve Board

14 Retail Sales 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = Source: Bureau of the Census

15 Retail Sales, Excluding Autos 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = 0.29 Source: Bureau of the Census

16 Change in Nonfarm Employment Thousands of jobs Aug-05-release, Jul = 255 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 U.S. Imports and Exports Billions of Dollars Recession Exports (Aug-05-release, Jun = 183.2) Imports (Aug-05-release, Jun = 227.7) Source: Bureau of the Census

18 ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index Index Aug-03-release, Jul = 59.3 Source : Institute for Supply Management

19 Purchasing Managers Index Index Aug-01-release, Jul = 52.6 Source: Institute for Supply Management

20 Real Value of the Dollar March 1973 = Exchange Value of the US$ (Aug-01- release, Jul=98.2) US$ vs Major Currencies* (Aug-01- release, Jul=103.3) * Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden Source: Federal Reserve Board

21 WAGES AND PRICES

22 PCE Price Index 1-month % change Aug-29-release, Jul = 0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

23 Core PCE Price Index 1-month % change Aug-29-release, Jul = 0.09 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

24 Consumer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-16-release, Jul = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

25 Core Consumer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-16-release, Jul = 0.09 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26 Producer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27 Core Producer Price Index 1-month % change Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

28 Nonfarm Business Productivity 1-quarter % change, annualized Aug-09-release, Q2 = -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

29 Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost 1-quarter % change, annualized Aug-09-release, Q2 = 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

30 Average Hourly Earnings 1-month % change Aug-05-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

31 Commodity Prices 1967=100, EOP 1, KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Aug-03- release, Jul=705) Recession KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Aug-03- release, Jul=459.2) Source: Commodity Research Bureau

32 ISM Manufacturing Prices Index Index Aug-01-release, Jul = 55 Source : Institute for Supply Management

33 Employment Cost Index 1-quarter % change Jul-29-release, Q2 = 0.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

34 FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

35 Percent Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr. 1-yr. Treasury yield spread Recession Neftci Recession Probability Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months. *Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on shortterm interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas Extraordinary monetary policy*

36 4 Percent Real Federal Funds Rate End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (Aug-26) less SPF Expected Inflation (Aug-12) End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (Aug-26) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (Aug-26) Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia; U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan

37 Percent 7 Short-Term Interest Rates Target Fed Fund Rate (Aug 26 = 0.375) Source: Federal Reserve Board 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Aug 26 = 0.34) Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Aug 25 = 1) 3-month LIBOR (Aug 26 = 0.833)

38 Long-Term Interest Rates Percent Mortgage Rate (week of Aug 25 = 3.43) 10-year T-Bond (week of Aug 26= 1.57) 10-year T-Bond (Aug 26 = 1.62) Source: Federal Reserve Board

39 Percent Bond Spreads Merrill Lynch s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Aug 19 = 3.39) Daily (Aug 25 = 3.39) BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Aug 19 = 0.94) Daily (Aug 25 = 0.94) Source: Moody s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch

40 Yield Curve Percent Month T-Bill Rate (week of Aug 26) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Aug 26 = 0.34) 1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Aug 26) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Aug 26 = 0.62) 10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Aug 26) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Aug 26 = 1.62) Source: Federal Reserve Board

41 Money Supply: M1 1-month % change, annualized Aug-25-release, Jul = Source: Federal Reserve Board

42 Money Supply: M2 1-month % change, annualized Aug-25-release, Jul = 7.8 Source: Federal Reserve Board

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