Brazil Economic Overview

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1 Brazil Economic Overview Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce of Florida Alexandre Tombini Governor March 26,

2 Brazil Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and GDP Brazil has vast natural resources, including recently discovered large offshore oil fields, a diverse industrial base, a dynamic and sophisticated private sector, and a well-structured public sector Brazil is a vigorous democracy, with free multiparty elections and a stable political system Brazil has good relations with all its neighbors and has increased its ties with all regions of the world 6 th largest GDP: US$ 2,475 billion (2011) Continental country: 5th largest area 8,514,877 km 2 5 th largest population: 191 million people (2010) Source: IBGE 2

3 Executive Summary Macroeconomic and financial stability, sustainable economic growth and targeted social policies have all contributed to poverty reduction and better income distribution Inflation is converging to the target and economic growth will accelerate throughout 2012 Outlook is for sustainable economic growth over the coming years, with substantial investments, particularly in infrastructure 3

4 Index Economic and Social Achievements Recent Economic Developments Looking Forward 4

5 Economic and Social Achievements 5

6 Macroeconomic Policy Main features of the macroeconomic policy framework: - Inflation targeting - Fiscal responsibility - Exchange rate flexibility The macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policy and strong bank supervision, resulted in: - Capacity to absorb internal and external shocks - Macroeconomic and financial stability - Sustainable economic growth - Credit and capital market development - Investment growth 6

7 dez 99 dez 00 dez 01 dez 02 dez 03 dez 04 dez 05 dez 06 dez 07 dez 08 dez 09 dez 10 dez 11 % yoy Achieved Inflation Target for 8th Year in a Row Source: BCB 7

8 jan 02 jan 03 jan 04 jan 05 jan 06 jan 07 jan 08 jan 09 jan 10 jan 11 jan 12 % annual Declining Real Interest Rate Mar 16 th 3.5% day market rate discounted by the IPCA expected for the next 12 months Source: BCB 8

9 % of GDP Commitment to Fiscal Targets 4,0% 3,7% 3,8% Primary fiscal surplus 3,5% 3,0% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,3% 3,4% 2,7% 3,1% 3,3% 2,5% 2,0% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% * *Jan 12 Source: BCB 9

10 * % of GDP Declining Net Public Debt , , ,6 48,4 47, p.p ,5 42, ,5 39,2 36,5 37,2 35 *Jan 12 Source: BCB 10

11 * US$ billion Robust International Reserves as of Mar 8 th Source: BCB 11

12 * US$ billion Brazil Has Become a Net External Creditor *estimate Jan 12 Source: BCB 12

13 % Strong External Debt Ratios ,6% ,4% 40 42,4% 20 21,5% 17,0% 12,1% 0 short term debt/intl. reserves debt services/exports external debt/gdp Dec 03 Jan 12* *estimate Source: BCB 13

14 Sovereign Credit Ratings Reflect These Improvements Baa1 / BBB+ 13 Baa2 / BBB 12 Baa3 / BBB- 11 Investment grade Upgrades in 2011: April: Fitch (BBB- to BBB) June: Moody s (Baa3 to Baa2) November: S&P (BBB- to BBB) Ba1 / BB+ 10 Ba2 / BB 9 Ba3 / BB- 8 B1 / B+ B2 / B B3 / B Moody's S&P Fitch Source: Moody s / S&P / Fitch 14

15 Social Development Macroeconomic and social inclusion policies have led to a marked improvement in living conditions A significant share of low income groups joined the middle class 15

16 % of households Declining Poverty and Inequality ,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 0,61 0,60 0,59 0,58 0,57 0,56 0,55 0,54 0,53 0,52 0,51 0,50 Extreme Poverty Gini Index (RHS) Source: IPEA 16

17 Financial Inclusion is a Priority All municipalities have a least one bank branch, outpost or correspondent # of points per 10,000 adults (% of municipalities) 0 (20%) >0 to 2 (22%) >2 to 5 (40%) >5 to 10 (16%) >10 (2%) # of points per 10,000 adults (% of municipalities) 0 (0%) >0 to 2 (0%) >2 to 5 (6%) >5 to 10 (29%) >10 (65%) Bank branches, bank advanced outposts (PAA), credit cooperatives (headquarters and outposts) and bank correspondents Source: BCB / IBGE 17

18 Recent Economic Developments Inflation Activity Credit & Financial System 18

19 Inflation on a Downward Trend Producer prices inflation (IPP) and wholesale prices inflation (IPA) are below 2% in 12 months General prices index (IGP) inflation is below 3.5% in 12 months These trends are already partially reflected in consumer prices inflation, which has been falling since the third quarter of 2011 Consumer inflation is converging to the central target 19

20 jan 11 fev 11 mar 11 abr 11 mai 11 jun 11 jul 11 ago 11 set 11 out 11 nov 11 dez 11 jan 12 fev 12 mar 12 % 12 months Producer and Wholesale Inflation Below 2% % % % IPP (Jan) 1.89% IPA-10 (Mar) IPP IPA (10, M and DI) Source: IBGE / FGV 20

21 jan 11 fev 11 mar 11 abr 11 mai 11 jun 11 jul 11 ago 11 set 11 out 11 nov 11 dez 11 jan 12 fev 12 mar 12 % in 12 months General Prices Index (IGP) Inflation Below 3.5% % % IGP (10, M and DI) Source: IBGE / FGV 21

22 jan 11 fev 11 mar 11 abr 11 mai 11 jun 11 jul 11 ago 11 set 11 out 11 nov 11 dez 11 jan 12 fev 12 mar 12 % in 12 months Declining Consumer Inflation 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 5.61% IPCA (Mar) 5.47% IPC-10 (Mar) 5.47% INPC (Feb) 4.50% IPC-Fipe (Mar) 4,0 IPCA-15 and IPCA INPC IPC-Fipe IPC (10, M and DI) Source: IBGE / Fipe / FGV 22

23 dez 99 dez 00 dez 01 dez 02 dez 03 dez 04 dez 05 dez 06 dez 07 dez 08 dez 09 dez 10 dez 11 % yoy Inflation Declining Towards the Central Target Reference Scenario Source: BCB 23

24 Recent Economic Developments Inflation Activity Credit & Financial System 24

25 Economic Activity Drivers of domestic demand still present Unemployment rate at record lows Formal job creation still strong Real labor income growing Credit growing at a sustainable pace Industry well positioned to resume production after rebalancing inventories over the last few months Economic growth expected to increase throughout the year 25

26 jan 03 jan 04 jan 05 jan 06 jan 07 jan 08 jan 09 jan 10 jan 11 jan 12 % (s.a.) Unemployment Rate at Record Lows Feb % Source: IBGE / BCB 26

27 jan 10 fev 10 mar 10 abr 10 mai 10 jun 10 jul 10 ago 10 set 10 out 10 nov 10 dez 10 jan 11 fev 11 mar 11 abr 11 mai 11 jun 11 jul 11 ago 11 set 11 out 11 nov 11 dez 11 jan 12 fev 12 Thousands (s.a.) Formal Job Creation is Strong million and 400 thousand jobs in the last 12 months (Mar 11 Feb 12) Source: MTE / BCB 27

28 fev 07 mai 07 ago 07 nov 07 fev 08 mai 08 ago 08 nov 08 fev 09 mai 09 ago 09 nov 09 fev 10 mai 10 ago 10 nov 10 fev 11 mai 11 ago 11 nov 11 fev 12 Average of 2010 = 100 Real Wages are Growing 105 Average in the previous 12 months % Feb 12 / Feb Source: IBGE 28

29 jan 07 abr 07 jul 07 out 07 jan 08 abr 08 jul 08 out 08 jan 09 abr 09 jul 09 out 09 jan 10 abr 10 jul 10 out 10 jan 11 abr 11 jul 11 out 11 jan = 100 Expanding Real Wage Bill 110 Real wage bill in the previous 12 months % Feb 12 / Feb Source: IBGE 29

30 jan 09 jul 09 jan 10 jul 10 jan 11 jul 11 jan = 100 Retail Sales Continue to Grow Jan 12 / Jan % Jan 12 / Jan % Retail Sales Retail Sales (including automobiles and construction materials) Source: IBGE 30

31 jan 07 jul 07 jan 08 jul 08 jan 09 jul 09 jan 10 jul 10 jan 11 jul 11 jan 12 Index Business Confidence is Improving Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A PMI of more than 50 indicates a positive outlook for industrial companies Source: Markit 31

32 jan 07 mai 07 set 07 jan 08 mai 08 set 08 jan 09 mai 09 set 09 jan 10 mai 10 set 10 jan 11 mai 11 set 11 jan 12 Index Rebalancing of Industrial Inventories Over the last few months, industrial firms rebalanced their inventories. Together with the strong drivers for domestic demand and the adjustment to monetary conditions, this favors the resumption of growth in industrial production in the coming months Data until Feb 12 Source: FGV 32

33 1S 12 2S 12 1S 13 GDP Growth GDP growth over 12 months market forecast Source: BCB 33

34 Top 10 World Economies in 2011 (1) GDP (US$ bi.) GDP Growth (%) Unemployment rate(%) 1º United States 15, º China 6, º Japan 5, º Germany 3, º France 2, º Brazil 2, º United Kingdom 2, º Italy 2, º Russia 1, º India 1, Source: CEBR / Bloomberg 34

35 Top 10 World Economies in 2011 (2) GDP (US$ bi.) Consumer Price Index (%) Producer Price Index (%) 1º United States 15, º China 6, º Japan 5, º Germany 3, º France 2, º Brazil 2, º United Kingdom 2, º Italy 2, º Russia 1, º India 1, Source: CEBR / Bloomberg 35

36 Recent Economic Developments Inflation Activity Credit & Financial System 36

37 Credit and Financial System Brazilian financial system is well capitalized Provisioning is rigorous Provisions are based on expected losses (but consider incurred losses also), reducing procyclicality Full provisioning is required in a shorter time frame 6 months after the first delinquency for many operations Write-offs are required in a shorter time frame 6 months after full provisioning Credit is growing at a sustainable pace Access to banking services is increasing 37

38 % Brazilian Banks Well Capitalized 20 16,6 19,0 18,5 17,4 17,8 17,3 17,7 18,9 16,9 16, ,8 14, Brazilian banks capital ratio regulatory minimum capital ratio Basel minimum capital ratio Source: BCB 38

39 jan 04 jul 04 jan 05 jul 05 jan 06 jul 06 jan 07 jul 07 jan 08 jul 08 jan 09 jul 09 jan 10 jul 10 jan 11 jul 11 jan 12 Rigorous Provisioning 220% 210% 200% 190% 180% 170% 160% 150% provisions/npls 3-mo moving average Source: BCB 39

40 % of GDP Credit Growing at a Sustainable Pace : 25.2% (average growth of nominal credit) : 18.3% (average growth of nominal credit) ,8 26,0 24,6 25,7 28,3 30,9 35,2 40,5 43,7 45,2 49, Source: BCB 40

41 Greater Access to Banking Services Accounts (banking sector) 55,708,468 83,308,800 91,944,421 Customers 87,630, ,102, ,791,126 Branches banking sector 17,049 20,046 21,278 all financial institutions 17,756 21,287 22,628 Posts of service (banking sector) 32,769 53,628 60,375 ATMs 129, , ,920 Domestic correspondents 78, , ,925 Municipalities Without banking services With banking services 5,358 5,566 5,564 Municipalities banking services coverage 96% 100% 100% Source: BCB 41

42 Looking Forward 42

43 Outlook for Brazil Sustainable GDP growth over the coming years Social gains and expansion of the middle class Demographic bonus until 2025 Major investment opportunities Expanding and upgrading infrastructure Offshore oil fields ( pre-salt layer) Vast reserves of mineral commodities Potential to expand cultivated area and agricultural production Major international sports events (FIFA World Cup in 2014 and Olympics Games in 2016) 43

44 Brazil in a Select Group of Major Economies Countries with area over 2 million km² Countries with population over 100 million Brazil Countries with nominal GDP over US$ 600 billion Source: IMF / UN 44

45 Million people Growing Middle Class Expanding Consumer Market Social Stratification 250 E D C A/B % % % % % % 26.7% % 20.7% % % % * monthly per capita incomes A/B: above BRL 923 D: BRL C: BRL E: below BRL 135 BRL 100 = USD56 USD = 1.8 BRL (March 14, 2012) Source: FGV 45

46 Favorable Demographics Population Pyramid (2010) men women Dependency Ratio millions of people Brazilian population is highly concentrated within the Economically Active Population range Brazil Brazil s dependency ratio is still declining, while other countries already face an upward trend Note: The dependency ratio is the ratio of the sum of the population aged 0-14 and that aged 65+ to the population aged Source: IBGE / UN 46

47 Public Pensions Reform Advances in Congress The Lower House of Congress recently passed a new, capitalization-based, supplementary pension scheme for civil service employees. The bill is now in the Senate The new system will lead to higher domestic savings and a stronger public sector fiscal position in the longterm It will also encourage the development of local capital markets, especially for long-term debt instruments 47

48 * real growth (%) Investment Growing Faster Than GDP ,3 forecast* 15 13,9 13, ,7 1,1 5,7 9,1 3,2 3,6 4,0 9,8 6,1 5,2-0,3 7,5 4,7 5,0 2,7 3, ,2-4,6-6,7 GDP Investment *forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report Dec 11) Source: IBGE / BCB 48

49 % of GDP Investment Rate at a New Level 20% 19% 19,1% 19,5% 19,3% 18% 17,4% 18,1% 17% 16% 16,8% 17,0% 16,4% 16,1% 15,9% 16,4% 15,3% 15% 14% Source: IBGE 49

50 * US$ billion Brazil is a Major Recipient of FDI 70 66,7 69, ,1 48, ,8 34, ,0 28,9 28,6 22,5 16,6 18,1 18,8 15,1 25,9 10 3,1 1,3 1,5 1,4 0,3 1,2 2,8 1,1 1,0 1,1 2,1 1,3 2,1 4,4 10,8 10,1 0 *up to Jan 12 Source: BCB 50

51 Major Infrastructure Investments Planned for Affordable Housing 390 BRL Billion Energy 300 BRL Billion Oil and Gas 228 BRL Billion Transportation 117 BRL Billion Other 160 BRL Billion Source: Ministry of Planning 51

52 Airports Will Receive Private Investment Brazil is privatizing airport operations in order to boost investment and improve management 1st Round: São Gonçalo do Amarante (new airport) o Concession term: 25 years o Investment: US$ 350 million o Capacity: 8 million passengers 2nd Round: Guarulhos, Campinas and Brasília o Concession term: years o Investment: US$ 9 billion o Capacity: increase from 50 to 180 million passengers 52

53 future* billion barrel oil equivalent (boe) Oil Reserves Set to Grow 45 crude oil, LNG and natural gas deepwater offshore fields (pre-salt layer) *estimated volume Libra* (8 billion boe) Franco* (4.5 billion boe) Guara* (2 billion boe) Iara* (4 billion boe) Tupi and Iracema* (8 billion boe) Source: Petrobras 53

54 Brazil Economic Overview Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce of Florida Alexandre Tombini Governor March 26th,

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