U.S. and Regional Housing Markets

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1 U.S. and Regional Housing Markets

2 House Prices Boom, Bust and Rebound Index, 1991: Q1=1* 3 CoreLogic house price index Real FHFA house price index *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCES: CoreLogic; Federal Housing Finance Agency; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

3 Median sales price (Thousands $)* South Midwest 35 West Northeast Sale Price for Single-Family Homes More Volatile in Coastal Regions *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: National Association of Realtors.

4 Median sales price (Thousands $)* 3 U.S. Texas 25 House Price Growth in Texas Currently in Line with the Nation *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

5 Index, Jan 1991 = 1* House Price Growth Robust across Major Texas Metros Austin Houston San Antonio Texas Dallas Fort Worth *Seasonally adjusted; 3-month moving average. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

6 Dallas House Prices Currently in Line with Those of Metros Showing High Sensitivity of Real home price index Housing Supply (1997: Q1 = 1) Metros with low sensitivity of supply Dallas Metros with medium to high sensitivity of supply NOTE: For more information, see "Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness." SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Housing Finance Agency; "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," by Albert Saiz, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 125, no. 3, 21, pp ; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

7 Houston House Prices Outpace Those of Metros Showing High Sensitivity of Housing Supply Real home price index (1997: Q1 = 1) Metros with low sensitivity of supply Houston Metros with medium to high sensitivity of supply NOTE: For more information, see "Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness." SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Housing Finance Agency; "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," by Albert Saiz, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 125, no. 3, 21, pp ; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

8 Home Construction Peaks, Plunges and Picks Up Thousands of units* Single-family building permits Billions of 29 dollars* Single-family construction *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.

9 Single-Family Permits More Volatile in Land- Plentiful South Than in Northeast Thousands* South West Midwest Northeast *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCE: Census Bureau.

10 New and Existing Home Sales Still Below Pre- Recession Peaks Thousands of units* Existing single-family homes Thousands of units* New home sales *Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCES: Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors.

11 House price change* (Percent, year-over-year) Lower Inventories Consistent With a Sustainable Housing Recovery in the U.S. Real U.S. FHFA house prices Months of supply* 2 3 Demand relatively strong Supply of singlefamily homes in U.S Demand relatively weak *3-quarter moving average. NOTE: For more information, see "Nationally, Housing Recovery Finally Gains Traction." SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Housing Finance Agency; Freddie Mac; National Association of Realtors; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 12

12 House price change* (Percent, year-over-year) Lower Inventories Consistent With High Inflation-Adjusted House Prices in Dallas Real Dallas house prices* Months of supply* 2 3 Demand relatively strong Supply of single-family homes in Dallas Demand relatively weak *3-quarter moving average. NOTE: For more information, see "Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness." SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Housing Finance Agency; Texas A&M Real Estate Center; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 12

13 House price change* (Percent, year-over-year) Lower Inventories Consistent With High Inflation-Adjusted House Prices in Houston Real Houston house prices* Months of supply* 2 3 Demand relatively strong Supply of single-family homes in Houston Demand relatively weak *3-quarter moving average. NOTE: For more information, see "Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness." SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Housing Finance Agency; Texas A&M Real Estate Center; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 12

14 Housing Inventories Continue to Decline Across Texas Months of supply* San Antonio Texas Fort Worth Houston Dallas Austin *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; National Association of Realtors.

15 Share of Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Remains Elevated in the U.S. Share of mortgages 9+ days past due* Subprime mortgages Prime mortgages *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association.

16 Seriously Delinquent Subprime Mortgages Highest in the Northeast Share of subprime mortgages 9+ days past due* Northeast South U.S. Midwest West *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association.

17 Seriously Delinquent Prime Mortgages Increase and Decline Sharply in the West Share of prime mortgages 9+ days past due* 6 5 Northeast South U.S. Midwest West *Seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association.

18 Share of mortgages entering foreclosure*.5 Subprime mortgages Prime mortgages Share of Mortgages Entering Foreclosure Continues to Decline in the U.S *Seasonally adjusted; -quarter moving average. SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association.

19 Share of Conventional Subprime Mortgages Entering Foreclosure Declines Sharply in the West Share of mortgages entering foreclosure* 6 Northeast South 5 U.S. Midwest West *Seasonally adjusted; -quarter moving average. SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association.

20 Share of mortgages entering foreclosure* 1. Northeast South 1.2 U.S. Midwest 1 West Share of Conventional Prime Mortgages Entering Foreclosure Declines Sharply in the West *Seasonally adjusted; -quarter moving average. SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association.

21 Housing Affordability Returns to Normal Percent 8 U.S. housing opportunity index NOTE: The Housing Opportunity Index measures the percentage of homes sold in a quarter that are affordable to a median-income family who obtain a conventional, 3-year, fixed-rate amortized mortgage with a 1 percent down payment and a maximum 28 percent of household income assigned to mortgage repayment. For more information, see "Nationally, Housing Recovery Finally Gains Traction." SOURCES: National Association of Home Builders; Wells Fargo.

22 Housing Share of Net Wealth on the Rise Percent Real estate present average real estate share of wealth Directly held stocks + bond and equity mutual funds SOURCES: Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve Board; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

23 Index, 1997: Q = 1* House Price-to-Rent Ratio in Line with Mortgage Interest Rates House price-torent ratio Real after-tax mortgage interest rates *Seasonally adjusted. NOTE: For more information, see "Nationally, Housing Recovery Finally Gains Traction." SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Housing Finance Agency; Federal Reserve Board; calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

24 Mortgage Rates Remain Low Percent year mortgage 1-year Treasury note 1-year adjustable rate mortgage Federal funds rate SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board.

25 Mortgage Rate Spread Remains Above November 213 Low Percent Spread year mortgage 1-year Treasury note Spread SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board.

26 Lending Standards for Nontraditional Mortgages Loosen in 215 Net percentage tightening credit standards over previous 3 months* Nontraditional residential mortgages Prime residential mortgages non-qm non-jumbo residential mortgages GSE-eligible residential mortgages *Positive numbers denote net tightening and negative numbers denote loosening of lending standards. NOTES: Revisions to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey in January 215 discontinued the two original series. They were replaced with new questionnaires that may not be completely representative of the previous series. SOURCES: Senior Loan Officer Survey; Federal Reserve Board.

27 Rise and Fall in Homeownership Rates Very Pronounced Among Younger Families Percent of households Age All ages Under age NOTE: For more information, see "What's Next? Factors Determining the Housing Recovery's Pace." SOURCE: Census Bureau.

28 Households/population (Percent) 52 Overall household formation rate Household Formation Sags During Great Recession Age 25-3 household formation rate NOTE: For more information, see "What's Next? Factors Determining the Housing Recovery's Pace." SOURCES: IPUM-CPS (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series - Current Population Survey); calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

29 Household Formation Among Young Declines Again; Percent of Adults Living With Parents Up from 197s Households/population (Percent) Percent of adults living with parents Percent Age 25-3 household formation rate NOTE: For more information, see "What's Next? Factors Determining the Housing Recovery's Pace." SOURCES: IPUM-CPS (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series - Current Population Survey); calculations by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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