The Physics of Energy sources Geopolitical background

Transcription

1 The Physics of Energy sources Geopolitical background B. Maffei School of Physics and Astronomy Turing Building Geo-politics 1

2 Human needs! Over the centuries the average human energy needs has grown! before the 18 th century most of activity is powered by animal/human Average daily energy per person! From the industrial revolution the requirement has increased dramatically Between 1850 and nowadays the average consumption x 10 Large discrepancy vs region: USA (~ 1GJ); Africa (few 10,000kJ) World consumption 1EJ = J 2008: 474EJ 2010 BP statistical review of world energy: Slight decrease in increase by 5.6% - same as : world yearly comsumption 10EJ Population 1.3Billion Av daily consumption per person * ref Date Geo-politics = J

3 Human population! World population has increased slowly up to : ~ 800 Million 1800: ~ 1 Billion! In the 20 th century population has had a sharp increase 2011: 7 billions * ref 1 Date Geo-politics 3

4 Recent variations kwh/capita Popula/on (million) Energy use (1,000 TWh) Growth Growth Growth USA 89,021 87,216 2% % % EU ,240 40,821 1% % % Middle East 19,422 34,774 79% % % China 8,839 18, % 1,141 1,333 17% % LaIn 11,281 14,421 28% % % America Africa 7,094 7,792 10% % % India 4,419 6,280 42% 850 1,140 34% % The World 19,422 21,283 10% 5,265 6,688 27% % Source: IEA/OECD, Population OECD/World Bank Geo-politics 4

5 Projected world needs (1)! Now: 7 Billion people on the planet, about 9 Billions by 2050! About 50% - 60% of world population in Asia! Consumption per human should be about constant in USA and Europe! Large increase in economical growth in India and China in the last decade Date World Pop ,262 1,650 2,521 5,978 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 World historical and predicted populations (Millions) Geo-politics 5

6 Projected world needs (2) Annual Energy consumption in million tonnes equivalent Source: 2012 BP statistical review of world energy Conclusion: We will have to meet a huge energy demand.! Energy (clean) will be one of the major technical and political challenge of the 21 st century Geo-politics 6

7 World consumption pop: 6.8 Billions Where does the energy come from at present? Fr pop: ~ 65 Millions USA pop: ~ 312 Millions UK pop: ~ 62 Millions Geo-politics Figures from 2005 * ref 1 7

8 Energy consumption type: projection Annual Energy consumption in million tonnes equivalent Source: 2012 BP statistical review of world energy Geo-politics 8

9 Sustainability Sustainable development: Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs United Nations, 1987 What does it mean in the context of energy?! Energy sources cannot be substantially depleted by continuous use! Condition on usage of these energy sources This implies that: - Reduction of fossil fuels (oil, coal) - source depletion and gas emissions - Reduction and/or fixing pb of nuclear energy Safety and radioactive waste - Push for clean renewable energy sources However: - Still need to meet the demand (trade off) - Political issues: how to stay in control of our energy supply? Geo-politics 9

10 Environmental problems Kyoto treaty on Global warming: 174 signed up (Nov 07) 50% reduction of greenhouse gas emission in 2050 (on 1990 levels) Ratified Not ratified Ratification pending No position Followed by Bali talks to include all countries still not binding More recently (2011) Durban treaty should become legally binding Geo-politics 10

11 Government policies! Government needs to make sure that the country is independent in term of energy! Secure supply through self-supplied production or secure imports Ref to recent gas row between Russia and Ukraine impacting EU supplies.! Or being totally (or nearly) independent Ex: President Barack Obama s programme: American energy Goal: Eliminate our current imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 years! Good but how to implement the Kyoto treaty?! Reduce use of fossil fuels (to run out anyway see later)! Develop technology for clean renewable energy sources Will take time to develop efficient and large scale power plants In the short term not efficient (or not cheap enough) to replace present sources! Resume construction of Nuclear power plants Dec 03 UK white paper did not endorse a programme of new power stations but: at some point in the future new nuclear build might be necessary if we are to meet our carbon targets Later: white paper on low carbon energy John Hutton (Business and Enterprise Sec of state) Set against the challenges of climate change and security of supply, the evidence in support of new nuclear power stations is compelling. I therefore invite energy companies to bring forward plans to build and operate new nuclear power stations Geo-politics 11

12 Present and near future energy sources situation! Most of the world energy is provided by fossil fuel (oil, coal, gas)! However ½ of the world oil reserves might have been used already.! Left resources depends on forecast models ~ 40 years for oil ~200 years for coal! Example from Le monde based on publication from Revue de l Energie R&D from EDF are expecting energy difficulties linked to petrol production decline no later than 2020 According to (maybe) pessimistic model, even if Hydraulic energy is multiplied by 2 Other renewable energy sources multiplied by 25 Nuclear and coal energy multiplied by 5 World energy needs would not be satisfied anymore at the horizon 2040! Conclusion:! The future might not be that bright! Energy production is a hot topic! Subject to be solved in the next decades! surely a potential source of jobs for you Geo-politics 12