Energy Prices, Climate Change Policy and U.S. Economic Growth

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1 Energy Prices, Climate Change Policy and U.S. Economic Growth Prepared for: Southern Growth Policies Board Annual Conference Biloxi, Mississippi June 8, 2009 By: Dr. Margo Thorning, Ph.D. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist American Council for Capital Formation Washington, D.C. Tel:

2 Trends in Global Energy Use and Carbon Emissions: Primary energy demand projected to increase by 1.6 % annually, an increase of 45%. Fossil fuels projected to be 80% of energy supply Renewable energy share projected to increase from 7% to 8% percent Carbon emissions projected to increase by 1.6% annually Developing countries account for 97% of the CO2 increase China s CO2 emissions exceeded the U.S. in 2006

3 U.S. Economic and Energy Trends An increase of 1% Gross Domestic Product requires 0.3% of increased energy use Energy intensity declined by 1.9% annually since 1992 Population will rise by 22% over the next 25 years Substantial increases in investment will be needed to meet rising demand for energy Proposals to reduce GHGs will impact U.S. economic growth and employment.

4 EIA's AEO2009 REFERENCE CASE GHG EMISSIONS PROJECTION vs. WAXMAN-MARKEY ECONOMY-WIDE GHG CAP 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6, ,500 5,000 4,500 4, Year AEO2009 Reference Case 2005 LEVEL HR 2454 Economy-Wide GHG Cap Million Metric Tons CO 2 Equivalent

5 Macroeconomic Impact of Waxman Markey Bill: Projected Impact on Energy Prices Compared to Baseline Forecast CO2 Allowance Price (2008$/metric ton) $22 $28 $46 $124 Percentage Change in Natural Gas Retail Rates* 10% ($1.2/MMBtu) 14% ($1.6/MMBtu) 16% ($2.3/MMBtu) 34% ($5.4/MMBtu) Percentage Change in Electricity Retail Rates* 7.3% (1.1 /kwh) 16% (2.0 /kwh) 22% (2.8 /kwh) 45% (6.1 /kwh) Percentage Change in Motor Fuel Cost* 3% (12 /Gallon) 4% (14 /Gallon) 5% (23 /Gallon) 11% (59 /Gallon) * Percentage increases in utility bills will be smaller to the extent there are free allowance allocations to loadserving entities and natural gas local distribution companies and/or reduced energy consumption. Source: CRA International, Impact on the Economy of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R.2454), May 2009.

6 Macroeconomic Impact of Waxman Markey Bill: Projected Economic Impact Compared to Baseline Forecast Percentage Change in U.S. GDP Change in U.S. jobs (Millions) Change to Average Worker s Annual Wages ($2008)* -1.0% -1.2% -1.3% -1.5% $170 -$ 270 -$390 -$960 * Assumes Partial Wage Adjustment Source: CRA International, Impact on the Economy of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R.2454), May 2009.

7 Projected Impact of Waxman and Markey Bill on Employment (Study Case: Year 2030) ,000-1,500-2, ,800 Change in Jobs from Base (Thousands) Agriculture Service Transportation Motor Vehicles Energy Intensive Industries Household Goods Manufacturing Electricity Conventional Fuels Source: CRA International, Impact on the Economy of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R.2454), May 2009.

8 Projected Regional Distribution of Changes to Employment in 2030 due to Waxman and Markey Bill Source: CRA International, Impact on the Economy of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R.2454), May 2009.

9 Projected Regional Distribution of Changes to Household Purchasing Power in 2030 due to Waxman and Markey Bill (Stated in Terms of 2010 Income Levels) Source: CRA International, Impact on the Economy of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R.2454), May 2009.

10 Cost of Electricity (20 Year Levelized Costs) US cents/kwh Gas Coal Nuclear Wind Biomass Solar Source: Hearing on Unlocking America s Energy Resources: Next Generation, Written Testimony Victor Abate, Vice President, Renewable Energy, GE Energy, May 18, 2008, pg7.

11 World Carbon Dioxide Emissions 90 Fossil and Industrial CO2 Emissions, Gt CO 2/yr Non-Annex 1 Emis s ions Equal w ith Annex 1 Emis s ions Non-Annex 1 Annex 1 Afric a Middle Eas t Latin America Southeast Asia India China Korea FSU Eas tern Europe Japan Aus tralia_ NZ Wes tern Europe Canada US A Source: Data derived from Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007.

12 Global CO2 Concentrations: Carbon emissions are projected to rise over the next several decades

13 Practical Strategies for Reducing Global Greenhouse Gas Growth Use cost / benefit analysis before adopting policies If U.S. puts a price on carbon emissions, a carbon tax is preferable to cap and trade Reduce cost of U.S. energy investment through tax code improvement and incentives for non profits Remove barriers to developing world s access to more energy and cleaner technology by promoting economic freedom and market reforms Increase R&D for new technologies to reduce energy intensity, capture and store carbon, and develop new energy sources Promote nuclear power for electricity Promote truly global solutions and consider expanding the Asia Pacific Partnership on Development with its focus on economic growth and technology transfer to other major emitters

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