World Energy Outlook Presentation to the Press London, 10 November 2009

Transcription

1 World Energy Outlook 29 Presentation to the Press London, 1 November 29

2 The context The worst economic slump since the 2 nd World War & signs of recovery but how fast? An oil price collapse & then a rebound rising marginal costs point to higher prices in the longer term, but are current levels sustainable? A slump in energy investment due to the financial & economic crisis will it bounce back quickly enough to avert a supply squeeze later? Difficult negotiations on a post-212 climate deal leading up to Copenhagen what is needed to avert catastrophic climate change?

3 World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario Mtoe China and India Rest of non-oecd OECD Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the increase in global demand between 27 & 23, driven largely by China & India

4 Change in primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, Coal Oil Gas Nuclear OECD Non-OECD Hydro Biomass Other renewables Mtoe Fossil fuels account for 77% of the increase in world primary energy demand in 27-23, with oil demand rising from 85 mb/d in 28 to 88 mb/d in 215 & 15 mb/d in 23

5 Worldwide upstream oil & gas capital expenditures Billion dollars * * Budgeted spending Global upstream spending (excluding acquisitions) is budgeted to fall by over $9 billion, or 19%, in 29 the first fall in a decade

6 Oil production in the Reference Scenario mb/d NGLs Unconventional oil Crude oil fields yet to be developed or found Crude oil currently producing fields Sustained investment is needed mainly to combat the decline in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost two-thirds by 23

7 Impact of decline on world natural gas production in the Reference Scenario tcm % 8% 6% 4% Fields yet to be developed or found Currently producing fields Share from fields not yet producing (right axis) 1 2% % Additional capacity of around 2 7 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 23 half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand

8 US natural gas supply in the Reference Scenario bcm % Net imports 6% Conventional Unconventional 5% Share of unconventional 4% in total supply 3% 2% 1% % Thanks mainly to shale gas, US gas output grows gradually through to 23, outstripping demand & squeezing imports

9 Natural gas transportation capacity bcm % Unutilised LNG liquefaction & pipeline capacity % LNG trade Pipeline trade % Capacity utilisation rate A glut of gas is developing reaching 2 bcm by 215 due to weaker than expected demand & plentiful US unconventional supply, with far-reaching implications for gas pricing

10 Indicative costs for potential new sources of gas delivered to Europe, 22 ($/MBtu) Although indigenous resources are limited & output is declining, Europe is geographically well placed to secure gas supplies from a variety of external sources

11 Average annual expenditure on net imports of oil & gas in the Reference Scenario Billio on dollars (28) % 2% 3% % Share of GDP 2 1 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 3% 3%.4% European Union United States China Japan India ASEAN The Reference Scenario implies persistently high spending on oil & gas imports, with China overtaking the United States by around 225 to become the world's biggest spender

12 Number of people without access to electricity in the Reference Scenario (millions) World population without access to electricity 28: 1.5 billion people 23: 1.3 billion people $35 billion per year more investment than in the Reference Scenario would be needed to 23 equivalent to just 5% of global power-sector investment to ensure universal access

13 The policy mechanisms in the 45 Scenario A combination of policy mechanisms, which best reflects nations varied circumstances & negotiating positions We differentiate on the basis of three country groupings > OECD+: OECD & other non-oecd EU countries > Other Major Economies (OME): Brazil, China, Middle East, Russia & South Africa > Other Countries (OC): all other countries, including India & ASEAN A graduated approach > Up to 22, only OECD+ have national emissions caps > After 22, Other Major Economies are also assumed to adopt emissions caps > Through to 23, Other Countries continue to focus on national measures Emissions peaking by 22 will require > A CO 2 price of $5 per tonne for power generation & industry in OECD+ > Investment needs in non-oecd countries of $2 billion in 22, supported by OECD+ through carbon markets & co-financing

14 Abatement by policy type in the 45 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, 22 Reference Scenario Domestic policies and measures Sectoral agreements 45 Scenario OECD+ cap-and-trade for power and industry (including international credits) Emissions Abatement: OECD+ Other Major Economies Other Countries Gt After realising the abatement potential of policies & measures and sectoral approaches, cap-and-trade in OECD+ yields a further 1.8 Gt

15 World primary energy demand by fuel in the 45 Scenario Mtoe % Fossil fuels 3% 24% 18% 12% 6% Zero-carbon fuels Share of zero- carbon fuels (right axis) % In the 45 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 22, and by 23 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand

16 World oil production by scenario mb/d mb/d Non-OPEC OPEC mb/d 2 36 mb/d 28 Reference Scenario Scenario 23 Curbing CO 2 emissions would also improve energy security by cutting oil demand, but even in the 45 Scenario, OPEC production increases by 11 mb/d between now and 23

17 Cumulative OPEC oil export revenues by scenario lion dollars (28) Tril Reference Scenario 45 Scenario Though slightly lower than in the Reference Scenario, OPEC revenues in the 45 Scenario are over four times as high as in the last 2 years

18 World primary natural gas demand by scenario bcm % (1 264 bcm) Reference Scenario 45 Scenario 3 +17% (511 bcm) Gas demand continues to grow in both scenarios, peaking by around 225 in the 45 Scenario & highlighting the potential role of gas as a transition fuel to a clean energy future

19 World abatement of energy-related related CO 2 emissions in the 45 Scenario Gt Reference Scenario OECD+ World abatement by technology Gt Gt Gt Efficiency 65% 57% Gt OME 3 28 OC Scenario Renewables & biofuels Nuclear CCS 19% 13% 3% 23% 1% 1% An additional $1.5 trillion of investment is needed in total in the 45 Scenario, with measures to boost energy efficiency accounting for most of the abatement through to 23

20 Abatement in the 45 Scenario by key emitters, 22 Gt International carbon markets Cap & trade in power & industry sectors Internation sectoral standards in transport & industry National policies China United States European Union India Russia Japan China, the United States, the European Union, India, Russia & Japan account for almost three-quarters of the 3.8 Gt reduction in the 45 Scenario

21 Incremental world electricity production in the Reference and 45 Scenarios, TWh Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Other renewables Reference Scenario 45 Scenario Renewables, nuclear and plants fitted with CCS account for around 6% of electricity generation globally in 23 in the 45 Scenario, up from less than one-third today

22 World passenger vehicle sales & average new vehicle CO 2 intensity in the 45 Scenario hare of sales S 1% 8% 25 2 Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrids Hybrid vehicles 25 ICE vehicles 6% 15 CO 2 intensityi of new vehicles 4% (right axis) 2% 9 5 per kilometre Grammes % Improvements to the internal combustion engine & the uptake of next-generation vehicles & biofuels lead to a 56% reduction in new-car emission intensity by 23

23 Summary & conclusions The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system > We are now on course for a 6 C temperature rise & rising energy costs > Limiting i i temperature rise to 2 C will require big emission i reductions in all regions A 45 path towards Green Growth would bring substantial benefits > Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change > Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills > Much less air pollution & huge health benefits Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future The challenge is enormous but it can and must be met > Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical > Each year of delay adds $5 bn to mitigation costs between today & 23