March 2015 MEGATRENDS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Transcription

1 March 2015 MEGATRENDS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

2 Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information. Use of non-gaap financial information This presentation may include non-gaap financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-gaap measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure on our website at Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website. 2

3 155 Years of Technical Innovation Punctuated by Four Megatrends Resources Discovered Annually High Discovered to Date: 6 to 8 Trillion BOE Produced 1859 to 2014: 2 Trillion BOE? Shallow Water Deep Water Low First Modern Oil Well * Application of Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (Onshore Conventional) Offshore Exploration & Production Unconventional Reservoirs 3 * This megatrend is ultimately responsible for all produced hydrocarbons except for a small amount recovered via mining

4 Birth of Oil Industry via Application of (Proven) Drilling Technology 1859 Drake Well, Pennsylvania Application of Proven Technology Oil Creek Pennsylvania Name Predates Drilling of Drake Well Seeps and Eternal Flames Early Prospecting Tools in U.S. 4

5 Application of Science & Engineering to Finding & Producing Hydrocarbons Anticlinal Theory Seismic Surveying Reservoir Management Well Logs

6 The Oil Industry Moves Offshore A New and Unexplored Geography Circa Late 1940s / early 1950s State-of-the-art seismic vessel State-of-the-art drilling rig Ekofisk Field, Offshore Norway, 1977 State-of-the-art production platform 6

7 Unconventional Reservoirs A Megatrend "Hidden in Plain Sight" A Previously Ignored Drilling Target Traditional Target A "New Tool" from Two Old Technologies Hydraulic Fracturing Operations First Utilized in 1949 in America Mature, organicrich source rocks New Target Horizontal Drilling Large-Scale Use by 1980 s Cartoon cross-section showing elements of a petroleum system 7

8 A Megatrend Resulting in a Renaissance of Enormous Scale 70 U.S. Natural Gas Production (billions of cubic feet per day) 10 U.S. Oil Production (million barrels per day) Shale Unconventional Gas Non-Shale Conventional Gas 4 Conventional Decline Curve Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)

9 Companies 1 U.S. Unconventional Reservoirs > 4 MMBOPD > 25 BCFGPD ExxonMobil Shell CVX, BP, Total ConocoPhillips 1 Non-government controlled companies only Daily Production (MMBOE) Countries U.S.A. Russia Saudi Arabia Canada, Iran, China Qatar, UAE Mexico, Norway, Kuwait, Iraq Ven., Alg., Nigeria 9 Sources: U.S. Unconventional Reservoirs = U.S. EIA; Countries = 2014 BP World Energy Statistics; Companies = Annual Reports All production volumes are 2013 annual averages, except U.S. unconventional reservoirs number, which is 2014 average

10 America s "Big Four" Unconventional Reservoir Fields Bakken 7-62 BBO 10 Numbers on map are estimates of ultimately recoverable resources (EUR); they were compiled from various government, industry and internal reports

11 Unconventional Reservoir Cost-of-Supply is Surprisingly Low Average Wellhead Oil Breakeven Price ($/BBL) Marcellus Production Growth Production (BCFPD) Independent Companies Integrated Companies Gas Price ($ per MCF) 0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan Oil Cost-Of-Supply Source = Rystad North American Shale Report 4Q Marcellus Production and U.S. Gas Price = EIA

12 The Greatest Energy Success Story of the 21 st Century (thus far) Resources Discovered Annually High? Shallow Water Deep Water Low First Modern Oil Well * Application of Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (Onshore Conventional) Offshore Exploration & Production Unconventional Reservoirs 12 * This megatrend is ultimately responsible for all produced hydrocarbons except for a small amount recovered via mining

13 Benefits From Unconventional Reservoirs Development ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC GROWTH ENERGY SECURITY 13

14 21 st Century Environmental Challenges During Past Half Century 300% Percent Change since 1965 Population has increased 115% Energy Consumption Energy use increased 238% CO 2 emissions are up 199% Atmospheric CO 2 up 24% Water use has increased 200% 100% 0% CO 2 Emissions Population Atmospheric CO 2 Land use has increased -100% Population Data from: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014; Atmospheric CO 2 from: NOAA 2014 Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions Data from: 2014 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

15 Unconventional Gas Production is Helping Reduce CO 2 Emissions U.S. CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes per Annum) 2005 U.S % Reduction Target CO 2 Emissions Associated with Electricity Generation Energy Source Pounds of CO 2 per MWh of Power Biomass 2,988 Coal 2,249 Oil 1,672 Natural Gas 1, Nuclear & Some Renewables 0 15 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014; 2025 target as per President Obama Source: California State Polytechnic University

16 Hydraulic Fracturing is Helping Reduce U.S. Water Utilization Use of Water in the United States Billion Gallons per Day Water Use in Electricity Generation Gallons per MWh Steam Cycle* Other** Fuel Production Other Irrigation Electricity Generation Natural Gas Coal Thermal Nuclear Solar Trough Geothermal 16 Water Use Source = USGS Circular 1405; Water Intensity Source = U.S. DOE, "Energy Demands on Water Resources", Dec * Assumes closed loop cooling tower; **"Other" includes water for other process uses such as emissions treatment, facilities.

17 Public Concerns and Areas for Continued Improvement Water Usage and Safeguards Triggered Seismicity Minimizing Community Impacts Greenhouse Gas Emissions West Texas Water Recycling Project Rigging Up Microseismic Monitoring Well Horizontal Wells (going in & out of page) Cross Section View 17

18 Development of Unconventional Reservoirs Enhances Energy Security U.S. Net Energy Imports Quadrillion BTUs Russia Gas Exports to Europe Russia Oil Exports to Europe (million barrels per day) Source = U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

19 Megatrend and Unconventional Reservoir Take Away Messages Megatrends crucial for supplying volume of hydrocarbons world needs A renaissance of enormous scale is underway in America U.S. oil and natural gas production growing rapidly Significant environmental, energy security and economic benefits Greatest energy success story of the 21 st century (this far) 19

20 March 2015 MEGATRENDS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY