Greenhouse gas emissions in Winchester District: Part IV Estimates and trends ( )

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1 Greenhouse gas emissions in Winchester District: Part IV Estimates and trends ( ) A summary Bob Whitmarsh Winchester Action on Climate Change (WinACC) (September 2014) Introduction This is the fourth in a series of annual reports on Winchester District s energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (carbon footprint). A great deal of detail about the methodology and analysis of the data on which these reports are based can be found in the earlier reports. 1 This year, for simplicity and ease of digestion, the data, provided by the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC), are presented mainly as graphs with extended captions. A second innovation is to present the data first in terms of energy consumption and then in terms of emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. Local authority gas and electricity consumption data are aggregated from meter readings and road transport and residual fuel consumption statistics are modelled. 2 Emissions can be estimated from energy consumption data by using conversion factors which can introduce a measure of annual variability because these factors can vary from year to year. For example, the fuel mix changes in centralised electricity-generating power stations. This can in turn obscure changes in energy consumption which more accurately reflect changes in behaviour of the domestic, commercial and public sector consumers in a local authority area such as Winchester District. Here, instead, I have used national emissions data provided by DECC which they have disaggregated to Local Authority level as explained later. 1 Whitmarsh, R.B. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Winchester District ( ): Estimates and Trends. Winchester Action on Climate Change, March 2011; Whitmarsh, R.B. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Winchester District: Part II. Estimates and Trends ( ). WinACC, September 2012; Whitmarsh, R.B. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Winchester District: Part III. Estimates and Trends ( ). WinACC, August Sub-national_methodology_and_guidance_booklet Jun2014, Appendix B. 1

2 Consumption (GWh) Energy consumption Electricity Total metered electricity consumption domestic commercial total Year Figure 1. Total annual metered electricity consumption in Winchester District from the domestic and commercial sectors. 4 The domestic sector includes some small businesses. Note that in 2012 the commercial sector used almost twice as much electricity as the domestic sector or almost two-thirds of the total. The average domestic consumption per meter in 2012 was 4667 kwh in Winchester District and 4034 kwh in England. The average commercial/industrial consumption per meter in 2012 was 71,118 kwh in Winchester District (but with no industry) and 73,949 kwh in England. 3 From DECC s Sub-national_electricity_consumption_statistics_at_local_authority_level DECC includes households and small businesses consuming less than 50,000 kwh in their definition of domestic and larger commercial and public sector bodies consuming more than 100,000 kwh in their definition of commercial. Intermediate consumptions are allocated according to other evidence (ref.2). DECC says Winchester District has no industry and so industrial emissions do not feature in this report. 2

3 Figure 2. Relative changes in electricity consumption in Winchester District referred to Note that although the domestic sector had reduced its consumption by about 6% in 2012 little progress was made after The commercial sector failed to reduce its consumption at all and remained 2% up in 2012 relative to The total electricity consumption had declined by only 1% in 2012 relative to Gas 5 Figure 3. Total annual (1 October 30 September) metered gas consumption in Winchester District from the domestic (defined as consuming less than 73,200 kwh) and commercial sectors. Thus the domestic sector includes some small businesses. Note that in 2012 the domestic sector used about 2.5 times as much gas as the commercial sector or almost three-quarters of the total. The average domestic consumption per consumer in 2012 was 14,893 kwh in Winchester District and 14,042 5 From DECC s Sub-national_gas_consumption_statistics_at_local_authority_level

4 Relative consumption (%) kwh in England. The average commercial/industrial gas consumption per consumer in 2012 was 383,641 kwh in Winchester District (but with no industry) and 659,057 kwh in England. Gas is used principally for heating but no allowance has been made in these figures for seasonal variations in temperature. 105 Trends in gas consumption since Domestic Commercial Total Year Figure 4. Relative changes in gas consumption in Winchester District referred to 2006 (the figure for commercial consumption in 2005 is suspect (Fig.3) and so 2006 has been used as the reference year). Note that although both sectors reduced their consumptions by similar amounts between 2006 and 2011 the commercial sector showed a strong increase in The latter gas year included the relatively mild winter of 2011/2012. The total gas consumption had declined by 16.6% in 2012 relative to Road transport fuels 6 Data on the consumption of road transport fuels at local authority level is provided by DECC for different classes of vehicle. This is very helpful in identifying the trends in consumption by different vehicle classes. 6 From DECC s Sub_national_road_transport_fuel_consumption_statistics_2005_2012 4

5 Figure 5. Fuel consumption by the main classes (97%) of road vehicle in Winchester District from 2005 to The Total values have been halved for display purposes. Total fuel consumption declined by 9.7% since Note that the strong reduction in consumption by petrol cars is only partly offset by an increase in consumption by diesel cars. Cars and goods vehicles contribute in the ratio 1.6:1 (or roughly 3 to 2). 115% Trends in road vehicle fuel consumption 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% Cars Goods vehicles Total 85% 80% Figure 6. Trends in road vehicle fuel consumption in Winchester District between 2005 and The overall reduction in consumption was 9.8%. However the figure illustrates that although cars (mainly private vehicles) had steadily reduced their consumption by 14.7% by 2012 goods vehicles had achieved only a 0.9% decrease and this was the first decrease since

6 Other fuels 7 Figure 7. Other fuels, sometimes called residual fuels, are defined as non-gas, nonelectricity and non-road transport fuels, and cover consumption of coal, petroleum, manufactured solid fuels and bioenergy and waste not used for electricity generation or road transport. The total annual consumption of other fuels in Winchester District declined by almost one quarter from 2005 to 2011 (35 to 26 ktoe). Petroleum products accounted for 80% of other fuels in 2011 and of these 94% were used by the Domestic and Agriculture sectors. Although the commercial use of coal increased substantially up to 2009 it levelled off up to 2011 and the absolute amount used in 2011 (3.2 ktoe) remained relatively small. Data for 2012 are unlikely to be available until late September Greenhouse gas emissions Estimated national emissions from all domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural fuel and electricity use, as well as emissions associated with transport and land use change, are provided by DECC. 8 National emissions, by end-user, are disaggregated, sometimes using additional data, to estimate CO 2 emissions by Local Authorities (LAs). 9 International shipping and aviation are excluded. Emissions data are given for carbon dioxide only. 7 From uk_sub_national_consumption_of_other_fuels_ All the data in this section come from _Methodology_summary_Local_Authority_CO2_emission 6

7 Electricity Figure 8. Total electricity emissions in Winchester District from 2005 to 2012 varied between 321 and 362 kt CO 2. Commercial emissions increased by 4.5% and domestic emissions by 1.1% over the period. Emissions from both sectors increased noticeably in 2012 following a steady decrease after Total emissions ended 3.2% higher in 2012 than in An upturn in emissions in 2012 also occurred nationally which DECC explains by an increased use of coal for electricity generation. 10 Gas Figure 9. Total gas emissions in Winchester District from 2006 to 2012 varied between 141 and 178 kt CO2 (the 2005 figure for the commercial sector is suspect and is ignored here) al_release_local_authority_co2_emissions.pdf 7

8 Commercial emissions decreased by 6.0% and domestic emissions by 11.0% over the period. Emissions from both sectors increased noticeably in Total emissions ended 9.6% lower in 2012 than in Gas is used principally for heating but no allowance has been made for seasonal variations in temperature. This partly explains the upturn in emissions in DECC says the increase in domestic emissions was caused by 2012 being a colder year than 2011( 10 ). Road transport Figure 10. Total annual road transport emissions in Winchester District from 2005 to 2012 varied between 488 and 551 kt CO 2. Emissions in 2012 were 10.7% less than in There has been a slow but steady decline in emissions since Other fuels Figure 11. Total annual emissions from the consumption of other fuels in Winchester District from 2005 to 2012 varied between 63 and 90 kt CO 2. Emissions in 2012 were 29.6% 8

9 less than in Emissions from the commercial sector declined by 44.0% whereas emissions from the domestic sector declined by just 10.6%. There has been a decline in emissions since 2010 both in the domestic and commercial sectors. Agriculture, Land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) Figure 12. Total annual emissions from the combustion of fuels in agriculture and LULUCF in Winchester District from 2005 to 2012 varied between 22 and 27 kt CO 2. Emissions in 2012 were 16.4% less than in There was a steady decline in emissions until 2010 then a slight upturn. Summary statistics for Winchester District Sector Sub-sector Emissions in 2005 (kt CO2) DECC s Total (all emissions++) Table 1. Summary of emissions in Winchester District ( ) + electricity, gas and other fuels; excluding road vehicles *figure for 2011 **figure for including diesel trains and transport other (steam engines) 9 Emissions in 2012 (kt CO2) Change (%) Electricity domestic commercial Gas domestic commercial ** Road transport Other fuels domestic 38.8 * commercial Agriculture/LULUCF Domestic subtotal Commercial subtotal

10 Note that emissions from electricity and, to a lesser extent, gas increased in 2012 (Fig. 13) causing the decrease in the District s total emissions between 2005 and 2012 to be less than the decrease between 2005 and By 2012 emissions had reduced by 10.9% relative to 2004; in 2011 the figure was 13% (ref. 1 ). Figure 13. Emissions in Winchester District from 2005 (gas from 2006) until 2012 illustrating the relative contributions of different sectors. Road transport and electricity make the largest contributions. 10

11 110% Relative emissions by source 100% 90% 80% 70% electricity gas transport other fuels agriculture/lulucf 60% Figure 14. Relative emissions in Winchester District from 2005 (gas from 2006) until 2012 illustrating the performance of different sectors. There has been no significant decrease in emissions from electricity. There was a steady decrease in emissions from gas, transport (from 2007) and other fuels. Emissions from agriculture and LULUCF initially declined but appear to have increased since Figure 15. The relative emissions in Winchester District in 2012 based on figures given in Table 1. Note the predominant influence of road transport emissions (45%); fuel consumption by cars and goods vehicles is roughly in the ratio 3:2. Other large contributions come from commercial electricity (20%) and domestic electricity and gas (23%). 11

12 Relative total emissions 105.0% 100.0% 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 100.0% 99.3% 97.3% 96.6% 94.1% 88.7% 90.9% 85.6% 89.1% Total emissions Per capita emissions Target trend line % 70.0% Figure 16. Total emissions (all sectors combined) of Winchester District from 2004 to 2012 relative to 2004 when total emissions were estimated to be 1223 kt CO 2. Per person emissions indicate a better outcome simply because the population of the District increased by 7.8%. The District has set a target of a 30% reduction by 2015 relative to Assuming that the District s emissions reduced by 0.7%, the same amount as UK emissions, from 2004 to 2005, total emissions should follow the green trend line. In 2012 these lines were 12% apart. It is evident that, even though the per person emissions are more on track to meet the target, the District s total emissions are consistently diverging from the required trend and it is unlikely that the target will be met. 12

13 Percentage change A. Commercial Electricity B. Commercial Gas C. Large Industrial Installations D. Commercial Other Fuels E. Agricultural Combustion F. Domestic Electricity G. Domestic Gas H. Domestic 'Other Fuels' I. Transport (A roads) J. Transport (Motorways) K. Transport (Minor roads) L. Transport Other M. Diesel Railways N. LULUCF Net Emissions TOTAL A comparison with emissions in SE England and UK 11 Percentage changes in emissions ( ) -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Winchester SE England all UK regions Figure 17. Comparisons of percentage changes from 2005 to 2012 in all DECC s emissions sectors in Winchester District, SE England and all UK regions combined. The red rectangles highlight the more significant differences. In Winchester District changes in commercial electricity, commercial gas and domestic gas fell well short of what was achieved in SE England or nationally. On the other hand, the District, perhaps because of needing less central heating oil in its warmer climate, outperformed savings made elsewhere in commercial other fuels and domestic other fuels. With the road transport sub-sectors there is no clear overall difference between the three different geographical areas. LULUCF net emissions savings were worse than in SE England but better than the national figure. Overall Winchester District delivered a 4% smaller decrease than was obtained either in SE England or nationally. 11 Data from Table 6 in ' _Statistical_release_Local_Authority_CO2_emission' and op. cit. 13

14 Conclusions Although the District s total emissions were less in 2012 than they were in 2005, the rate of decrease is markedly insufficient to come close to meeting the target of a 30% reduction by 2015, relative to However, the District s population has increased significantly over the period and average emissions per person are closer to meeting the 30% target. Road transport continues to make a major contribution (45%) to the District s carbon dioxide emissions followed by commercial (i.e. non-domestic) electricity use (20%). The above results demonstrate, as in previous years, that the commercial sector in Winchester District is failing to decrease its carbon footprint. In fact, between 2005 and 2012, commercial electricity consumption increased by 1.5% and commercial electricity emissions increased by 4.5% 12 and goods vehicles fuel consumption decreased by only 0.9% (whereas cars fuel consumption decreased by 14.7%). When compared to SE England as a whole, as well as the whole of the UK, Winchester District s reduction in emissions from commercial gas were significantly less over the period and emissions from commercial electricity actually increased (elsewhere they decreased). Domestic emissions from electricity and gas showed similar, but smaller, changes to the rest of the country but with much smaller differences between the three areas. Clearly, there is huge potential for Winchester District to cut its emissions in future. In particular, this will require recognition and action by the commercial sector to do much more by cutting emissions from goods vehicles and from the use of electricity. The overall plan for the level of reductions per sector and where they could be met will be decided at the end of the consultation on targets being carried out at the time of writing. 12 The reason for the discrepancy between the increases in consumption of, and emissions from, commercial electricity is unclear but must be related to differences in the way in which DECC defines commercial and/or calculates the figures (see refs. 2 and 9). The implied conversion factor (kg CO 2 /kwh) increased by 3.1% between 2005 and 2012 whereas in reality it decreased by at least 3.8% ( 14

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