GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY AND ENERGY SECURITY A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

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1 GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY AND ENERGY SECURITY A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE Jean-Paul Decaestecker Council of the European Union Energy Foresight Symposium 2007 BERGEN, March 2007 EFS 2007 The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Council 1

2 Resolved by pooling their resources to preserve and strengthen peace and liberty, and calling upon the other peoples of Europe who share their ideal to join in their efforts.. Where do we stand? Which challenges do we face? Energy policy objectives, values and energy security principles Responses The three circles Actors Conclusions EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 2

3 WHERE DO WE STAND? - World energy demand to grow by 50% by 2030, mostly from developing countries and for fossil fuels (transport for oil, power generation for gas) - Oil and gas will increasingly come from «unstable» suppliers and be concentrated in a small number of countries, a fact compounded by the control of networks - Conventional reserves for oil, gas, coal and uranium and access to unconventional ones dispel risk of global supply disruption over the medium term while oil/gas prices should on average keep rising - The EU is the largest energy importer in absolute terms and imports 50% of its energy (USA: 30%; Japan: 80%), growing to 70% in 2030 under BaU scenario - The EU relies on a few suppliers (60% of gas from Russia, Norway, Algeria; 80% of oil from Russia, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Lybia) - Dependency varies widely among Member States and according to energy source (9 MS are more than 80% dependent, 6 are 30% or less, one is a net exporter) - This diversity and MS sovereignty on fuel-mixes, access to primary resources and conduct of bilateral energy relationships impact on the formulation of an Energy Policy for Europe EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 3

4 WHICH CHALLENGES DO WE FACE? INCREASED DEPENDENCE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY REVENUES (impact on development and governance) WILL UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES DELIVER?. STATE DIRIGISME (politics, low investment and inefficiencies) TARGETS (critical infrastructures and sea-lanes) NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE (non-proliferation and new players) RISING GHG EMISSIONS (opportunity or compounding factor?) GAME PLAYING (counter-projects, externalities, diversification race) increased uncertainty diversification routes/suppliers/sources EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 4

5 ENERGY POLICY OBJECTIVES, VALUES AND ENERGY SECURITY PRINCIPLES The three objectives of the Energy policy for Europe: Security of supply, Competitiveness, Environmental Sustainability Climate change driven (post-2012 GHG targets energy targets & priorities with third countries) Values (multilateralism vs. unilateralism, solidarity, human rights, access through the market..) & Rules (due process, sanctity of contracts,..) Energy Security Principles (IEA, G8, bilateral) a) Legal and regulatory framework for competitive markets and investment b) Infrastructure reliable, safe and secure and adequate investment c) Diversification low carbon, energy efficiency, technology deployment d) Supporting measures (stocks, Kyoto mechanisms, non-proliferation,..) EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 5

6 RESPONSES THE THREE CIRCLES The EU Internal policies (diversification & decarbonisation) a) Internal market (full opening on 1 July 2007) b) TransEuropeanNetworks (including LNG terminals) c) Stocks (oil [in connection with the IEA mechanism]/gas) d) diversification of domestic sources (energy efficiency, renewables, low carbon) e) RD & D low carbon energy sources & systems (+ transfer & partnerships) The EU External policies (dialogue C2C, C2T, C2P & diversification) a) near abroad (Western Balkans, Euromed, Ukraine, Black Sea & Caspian) b) beyond the near abroad (Russia, USA, China, India, Brazil ) c) energy and development (Africa: governance, energy poverty and contribution to energy supply) d) which instrument(s)? One (or more) Energy Security Treaty(ies)? EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 6

7 ACTORS States vs non-states actors a) Companies b) people To which camp do they belong? a) long term interdependence b) joint venture & downstream investment c) regional contexts EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 7

8 CONCLUSIONS Glimmers of hope: growing recognition of principles, growing acknowledgment of investment gap, more commitment to energy efficiency A EPE based on the three D s decarbonisation/diversification/dialogue contribute to the energy security and climate objectives More understanding and trust, more joint projects as a means to engage, more consistency and solidarity between MS within the EU and Energy partners worldwide Interdependence can be mutually beneficial as long as consulted moves on all sides Some may consider this approach as naïve; may they consider this sentence of J.J.Rousseau: The strongest is never strong enough to be always the master, unless he transforms strength into right, and obedience into duty. This should be our guidance: less raw power games, more trust; less conflicts and a wider application of the law as precondition to long term, collective energy security EFS 2007 Geopolitics of energy and energy security - A European perspective 8

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