Energy Prices. Presented by: John Heffernan

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1 Global Wholesale Energy Prices Presented by: John Heffernan

2 Energy in 2012 In 2012, the growth in Energy consumption slowed in % of this growth came from China & India Consumption & production of oil, gas and coal reached record levels One of the most notable features in 2012 has been the American Shale Revolution The world s leading fuel at 33% of consumption: oil In consumption terms, the fast growing fossil fuel is: Coal China s share of global coal consumption 50.2% The only fossil fuel to see an acceleration in consumption: gas In 2012, global nuclear power output has the largest decline ever (Japanese output fell 89%) Share of global power generation met by renewable: 4.7%

3 Long-term Trends Source: The US National Bureau of Economic Research

4 Super-cycles Source: The US National Bureau of Economic Research

5 Super-cycles cycles so so where are we? Super-cycles are linked to historical episodes of mass industrialization and urbanisation Oil started to demonstrate above-trend real price movements in So we are in a super-cycle Typically, these peak between years ( ) Any clues in the BP report? -1.3% decline on OECD oil consumption +1 million b/d..growth of US oil production, the largest in the world & oil production growth > oil consumption growth Outside the OECD consumption grew led by China Supported by the World Bank

6 Growing Oil Supply & Demand in 2012 SUPPLY DEMAND OPEC Iran -.680m Libya +1m Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Iraq Kuwait +1.1m -.53m OECD 1.42 Million Non-OPEC USA +1m South Sudan -.34m Syria -.16m.5 Million TOTAL 1.92 Million China +.47m Japan +.25m Other +.7m.89 Million Non-OPE EC

7 The World s Top Oil Producers: 65% in the hands of 10 Countries

8 Supply - The Middle East One Barrel represents 1 million barrels of oil produced per day 8

9 US: The Great Reversal ersal Central Banks have injected $12 trillion of cash but with the US recovering is the era of cheap money over? Possible Implications: A stronger $ & reduced Non-OECD Demand Sell off in emerging bonds, equities & weaker currencies ($4 trillion pushed in emerging economies) Affecting those economies that benefited from cheap foreign credit & a dear currency India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, the Philippines & Thailand have faced dramatic currency depreciation versus the US dollar Another Asian financial crisis? Will China s economic growth continue?

10 Implications for the Shale Oil Boom in the US US oil output up by 40% since 2008 The US is less reliant on imports and OPEC cutbacks or inventory builds The could lead to a rise in OPEC s spare capacity cushion Could the shale oil revolution go global? Benefits beyond supply: Cheaper energy for consumers & industry Lower feedstock costs for the petrochemical and other industries Increase tax take Jobs

11 Co-movement (Oil & Gas)

12 Trends in Wholesale Gas Prices

13 Trends in Wholesale Gas Prices Unit: Bcm Supply Indigenous % % % Imports Algeria 1.2 1% % 0 0% Continent % % % Norway % % % Russia 0 0% % % Other LNG % % % Export % % % Future Sources of Supply? Increased Russian production Importing gas from the US Exploiting unconventional gas in the UK

14 Europe is at a disadvantage Struggling to compete with the rest of the world because of the disparity in energy costs: US Europe Industrial Gas Prices -66% +35% Industrial Power Prices -4% +38% EU President we have no major game changer on the horizon EU Commission President the landscape is changing, and not in Europe s favour Solutions: Energy efficiency Complete the internal market Tap all resources Europe to become a free-trade-agreement partner

15 Average Wholesale Electricity Price MWh Elec Price Gas Spark Carbon May

16 Wholesale Price per half-hour hour DEMAND Cheapest Power Plant -3 Wholesale Price Cheapest Power Plant -2 Cheapest Power Plant -1 Cheapest Power Plant WIND

17 Sparks Wholesale price is enough to cover: S t MWh Wh l l P i Gas Carbon The rest = Spark Sept MWh Wholesale Price Irish Spark CCGT Breakeven UK Dutch German France

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