The Burning Question. What would it take to. leave fuel worth trillions in the ground and is 12,000 10,000 8,000. 6,000 humanity up to it?

Transcription

1 The Burning Question 12,000 10,000 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) What would it take to 8,000 leave fuel worth trillions in the ground and is 6,000 humanity up to it? 4,000 2,

2 About me! Author Journalist (Guardian/Kiln) UCL

3 The book and the talk 1 Where are we at with! climate change?! 2 What solutions do and don t work?! 3 What are the barriers to action?! 4 What should we do?

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6 How are we doing solving climate change?

7 Exponential curve

8 Total CO2 emissions since 1850 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

9 Total CO2 emissions since 1850 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

10 Total CO2 emissions since 2000 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,

11 What if we stay on that curve?

12 4 degrees Celsius

13 = temperature increase since the Last Glacial Maximum

14 So instead we re aiming for 2 degrees Celsius

15 which is better but not safe TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern Updated Reasons For Concern Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for Most Regions Negative for Some Regions; Positive for Others Net Negative in All Metrics Positive or Negative Market Impacts; Majority of People Adversely Affected Higher Very Low Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for Most Regions Negative for Some Regions; Positive for Others Net Negative in All Metrics Positive or Negative Market Impacts; Majority of People Adversely Affected High Low Future Increase in Global Mean Temperature above circa 1990 ( C) Past Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Risk of Extreme Weather Events Distribution of Impacts Aggregate Impacts -0.6 Risks of Large Scale Discontinuities Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Risk of Extreme Weather Events Distribution of Impacts Aggregate Impacts -0.6 Risks of Large Scale Discontinuities

16 The remaining budget Emissions so far 2000 billion tonnes of CO2 Future emissions 1600 billion tonnes of CO2 700 billion tonnes of CO2 Double coin-flip scenario (75% chance of success) Coin-flip scenario (50% chance of success)

17 Total CO2 emissions since 1850

18 The remaining budget Billion tonnes of CO Today 2100

19 The remaining budget Billion tonnes of CO Today 2100

20 Might we run out of fuel? 3000 Coal 2500 Gas Billion tonnes of CO Coal 2000 Gas 430 Oil Proven reserves Coin-flip 1600 Double coin-flip 700 Remaining carbon budgets Oil

21 Might we run out of fuel? (Coal) 3500 Billion tonnes of CO Coal Gas Oil Gas Oil Fuel resources Coin-flip budget Double coin-flip 0 Oil & gas resources Coin-flip budget Double coin-flip

22 Are the global talks on track? Global greenhouse gas emissions (gigatonnes CO2e) Business as usual Current pledges Needed for 2ºC

23 What solutions do and don t work?

24 What drives the curve? 6 CO2 5 Indexed 4 GDP/Person 3 Population CO2 /Energy Energy / GDP

25 Population Annual % increase Annual % change Global population (millions) Population

26 Affluence Annual change Annual % change Average affluence (GDP/head) Affluence (economic growth)

27 Energy intensity (efficiency) Energy intensity Annual % change Energy intensity (Tonnes oil equivalent /GDP) 500 Annual change

28 Rebounds and ripples Get a more efficient car Bigger economy, more investment in efficiency Rebound type 1 Drive more and/or Save money More demand for roads; suburbia more Rebound viable; bigger type 4 houses, etc. Invested via bank or fund Spend it on other things Use less fuel and Lower global oil price More oil use elsewhere Rebound type 3 Rebound type 2 Carbon footprint Economic activity

29 Carbon intensity Annual change Annual % change Carbon intensity (tonnes carbon / tonne oil equivalent) Carbon intensity (clean energy)

30 New energy capacity Million tonnes of oil equivalent Oil Natural gas Coal Fossil fuels Renewables

31 An age-old feedback 600 WWW 550 Internet Global energy use in exajoules 500 Microchip Nuclear energy 350 Gas 300 Television Solar & wind Nuclear Hydro Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Commercial aviation Oil Coal Biomass

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33 xtext

34 Who s responsible for fossil fuel use? End consumers? Industry? Fossil fuel sector?

35 Who s responsible for fossil fuel use? Fuel industry Infrastructure Lifestyles We can t minimise the consumption of fossil fuel while also maximising supply!

36 ! 6000 US carbon emission are falling. But its carbon extraction is still rising Oil Coal Gas 2010

37 What are the barriers to action?

38 1. Value of reserves and infrastructure! 2. Prioritization of economic growth above ecological health! 3. Psychological and social barriers! 4. How to sharing the remaining pie?

39 Value of reserves and infrastructure $ trillion

40 Value of reserves and infrastructure $764 billion each year on developing NEW reserves!

41 Potential CO2 in proven reserves (billion tonnes) Value of reserves and infrastructure 2500 Coal Gas 2000 Oil EU, Africa & AoSIS EU, Africa, AoSIS Rest of world & Cartagena

42 Economic growth can it be done? 38 Existing and planned policies CO2 emissions (gigatonnes) Efficiency, 44% Renewables, 21% 26 Biofuels, 4% Nuclear, 9% 24 50% chance of 2 C CCS, 22% 2035

43 David Cameron s effort to introduce alternative metrics!! Every department a growth department Calls on OPEC to increase oil output for growth!! New place for Heathrow for growth Commissions report on increasing oil and gas extraction for growth!!

44 Social and psychological barriers to action Optimism bias Now bias Confirmation bias Social inertia bias

45 Sharing the pie Lots of options National pledges Global cap and trade Global carbon tax SAFE Carbon! but none is a silver bullet for burden sharing. We need to find ways to encourage others to participate such as trade.

46 What should we do?

47 What should we do? Waking up! Capping the carbon Pushing the right technologies hard Sorting out food, land and smoke Prepare a plan B Leadership

48 !!! Is a tipping point coming?! 1.1% increase in reported fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2012