Hvad betyder interessemodsætninger og fælles værdier for partivalget? Søren Risbjerg Thomsen
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1 Hv tyr itrsssætir fæs værir fr rtivt? Sør Risr Ts 1
2 2 f f f i i Pt. f yi str i 2001 (it-trsfrrt) Ri - st tisuti
3 3 Fiur 1. Æri i værtisuti fr 1998 ti 2001 fr S V i t stiisrs f f f i i Pt. f yi str i 1998 (Lit trsfrrt) Vstr - st tisuti f f f i i Pt. f yi str i 2001 (it-trsfrrt) Pt. f yi str i 1998 (Lit trsfrrt) Sirtit - st tisuti Sør Strrs Køvs A t Vstsæ s A t Fys A t V A t Vir A t Ø str Strrs Frrisr A t Strstrø s A t Sørys A t R iøi A t N rys A t Vstr Strrs f R si A t i Br s A t R i A t Årus A t
4 Orår srtt æri fr v ti v yr 12 yr 4
5 Gr Prty utiity Prty i Prty utiity = Gr ttrti + Si ttrti + Nis U i i i i : rtiur vtr : rtiur rty : Gr ttrti : Dtri y sr vus (utur) i : Si ttrti: Dtri y issu siti f vtr rty (strutur) ε i : R rrr t 5
6 Tw s fr si ttrti i O-isi x: Lft-rit s fr -0.5 t +0.5 X i : ft-rit siti f vtr i Y : ft-rit siti f rty Prxiity i ( X Y i 2 ) Dirti i X i Y 6
7 T 2 M vtr ssssts f t rty sitis sf-t six issu ss Lft-rit siti Fwr rfus Sr ui str Prty C C C Uit List Siist P. Prty Si Drts Si Lirs Ctr Drts Cristi P. Prty Csrvtivs Lirs Dis P. Prty Prrssiv Prty Sf-t Lss r itis Mr w rr Strr Eur Ui Prty C C C Uit List Siist P. Prty Si Drts Si Lirs Ctr Drts Cristi P. Prty Csrvtivs Lirs Dis P. Prty Prrssiv Prty Sf-t
8 T 1 Prxiity irti fr rty i t t Dis ti ti Prxiity Dirti Art t Cf. St. Err. Si. Cf. St. Err. Si. Sr Sy. Prty itrt Uit List Siist P. Prty Si Drts Si Lirs Ctr Drts Cristi P. Prty Csrvtivs Lirs Dis P. Prty Prrssiv Prty Issu siy 2 Lft-rit Rfus Pui str Gr itis Lw rr Eur Ui Psu R
9 Prty itrt Fiur 1 Dr Prty itrt y syty i t t rxiity irti Prxiity M, R 2 = 0.25 Dirti M, R 2 = 0.92 i s s u s s s i s M rty syty u M rty syty : Ctr Drts; : Csrvtivs; : Cristi P s Prty; : Dis P s Prty; : Lirs; s: Si Drts; s: Si Lirs; s: Siist P s Prty; : Prrssiv Prty; u: Uit List. 9
10 Prty itrt Fiur 2 Nrwy Prty itrt y syty i t t rxiity irti Prxiity M, R 2 = 0.03 Dirti M, R 2 = 0.91 r s t i t s i M rty syty r M rty syty s: Siist Prty; : Lur; i: Lir Prty; t: Ctr Prty ; : Cristi P s Prty; : Csrvtivs; r: Prrss Prty 10
11 Prty itrt Fiur 3 Sw Prty itrt y syty i t t rxiity irti Prxiity M, R 2 = 0.31 Dirti M, R 2 = 0.55 s s r r M rty syty M rty syty : Lft Prty; s: Si Drts; : Gr Prty; : P s Prty; : Ctr Prty; r: Cristi Drts; : Mrt Prty; : N w Dry 11
12 Cit itrt Fiur 4 Fr Prty itrt y syty i t t rxiity irti Prxiity M, R 2 = 0.02 Dirti M, R 2 = 0.92 i i M it syty M it syty : Lii i: Mittr : Brr : Cir : LP 12
13 Prty itrt Fiur 7 E Prty itrt y syty i t t rxiity irti Prxiity M, R 2 = 0.30 Dirti M, R 2 = M rty syty M rty syty : Lur; : Lir Drts; : Csrvtivs 13
14 14 Prtirs tisuti 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9/01 10/01 11/01 11/01 12/01 2/02 4/02 6/02 8/02 10/02 12/02 2/03 4/03 6/03 8/03 10/03 12/03 2/04 4/04 6/04 8/04 10/04 12/04 1/05 1/05 1/05 2/05 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/05 12/05 2/06 4/06 6/06 8/06 10/06 12/06 2/07 4/07 6/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 11/07 11/07 12/07 2/08 4/08 6/08 8/08 10/08 12/08 2/09 4/09 6/09 Må Prt V K KrF CD R SF DF EL FrP S V R CD SF K KD FV07 S DF EL FV01 CD FV05 R DF K S V SF EL NA KF
15 Btyi f itrsssætir Lft-rit Rfus Pui str Gr itis Lw rr EU 0.0 FV98 FV01 FV05 FV07 15
16 16
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