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1 T r i p l e p l a y a s a s e p a r a t e m a r k e t? Z o l tá n Pá p a i 2 2 n d E u r o p e a n R e g i o n a l I T S C o n f e r e n c e B u d a p e s t, S e p t e m b e r,

2 T h e p a p e r : Z o l tá n Pá p a i - L á s z ló L r i n c z B a lá z s É d e s T r i p l e p l a y a s a s e p a r a t e m a r k e t? E m p i r i c a lf i n d i n g s a n d c o n s e q u e n c e s t o b r o a d b a n d m a r k e t d e f i n i t i o n

3 B u n d l i n g B u n d l i n g i s a w i d e s p r e a d p h e n o m e n a o n t h e c u r r e n t e l e c t r o n i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n s m a r k e t s S t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e s a r e t h e m a i n m o t i v a t i o n s o n t h e s i d e o f s e r v i c e p r o v i d e r s i n c r e a s i n g s u b s c r i b e r b a s r e eov r e n u e g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s i n c r e a s i n g c u s t o m e r l o y a l t y t h e r e b y r e d u c i n g c h u r n m a r k e t i n g c o m p l e m e n t a r i t i e s P r i c e d i s c o u n t s a n d o n e s t o p s h o p p i n g / s i n g l e b i l l a r e t h e m a i n c o n s i d e r a t i o n s o f c u s t o m e r s 3

4 T e r m i n o l o g y u s e d o n l y c o n s i d e r i n g s u b s c r i p t i o n s d e f i n i t e l y t o a b u n d l e m u l t i p l a y: a t l e a s t t w o s e r v i c e s b u n d l e d 2 -p l a y : t w o s e r v i c e s b u n d l e d, b u t t h e c o m p o s i t i o n c a n b e : t e l e p h o n y + i n t e r n e t t e l e v i s i o n + i n t e r n e t t e l e v i s i o n + t e l e p h o n y 3 -p l a y : t e l e p h o n y + i n t e r n e t + t e l e v i s i o n n o m o b i l e t e l e p h o n y o r m o b i l e i n t e r n e t a r e c o n s i d e r e d h e r e internet telephone 2-play 2-play (i+t) (t+tv) 3-play (i + t + tv) 2-play (i+tv) television 4

5 M u l t i p l a y i n E u r o p e 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2-play and 3-play household penetration in the EU* (2009) 2-play 3-play p e n e t r a t i o n i s g r o w i n g c o r e l a t i o nw i t h G D P m i x e d p i c t u r e 10% 0% BE BG CZ CY DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT SE SI SK UK s o u r c e : E U 1 5 t h R e p o r t l a c k o f d a t a f r o m s o m e c o u n t r i e s m e t h o d o l o g i c a l c o n f u s i o n 5

6 T h e r e g u l a t o r y p r o b l e m h o w i n c r e a s i n g p r e s e n c e o f b u n d l e s a f f e c t m a r k e t d e f i n i t i o n o f s i n g l e s e r v i c e s? b r o a d b a n d, t e l e p h o n y r e t a i l m a r k e t s, w h o l e s a l e m a r k e t s w h a t i f a b u n d l e i s a s e p a r a t e m a r k e t? t e s t i n g a g a i n s t m a r k e t p o w e r i s n e e d e d o n t h e b u n d l e m a r k e t t e n d e n c y t o w a r d s b u n d l e s m a y p o s e c o m p e t i t i o n c o n c e r n s e v e n o n t h e s i n g l e p r o d u c t m a r k e t u n d e r t h e c u r r e n t E u r o p e a n r e g u l a t o r y f r a m e w o r k i t i s n o t a t h e o r e t i c a l i s s u e m a r k e t d e f i n i t i o n a c c o r d i n g t h e r u l e s a n d r e q u i r e m e n t s h a v e t o g i v e t h e a n s w e r i t i s a n e m p i r i c a l q u e s t i o n 6

7 A i m o f t h e s t u d y T e s t i n g e m p i r i cma el t h o d o l g y f o r g i v i n g a n s w e r t o t h e m a r k e t d e f i n i t i o n q u e s t i o n p i l o t s t u d y u s i n g s u r v e y d a t a C r i t i c a l L o s s t e s t f o r S S N I P S u p p o r t e d b y t h e g r a n t f r o m H u n g a r i a n C o m p e t i t i o n O f f i c e b u d g e t a n d t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s 7

8 T h e S u r v e y s a m p l e : N = ; n a t i o n a l s u r v e y ; r e p r e s e n t a t i v e b y : t sr ea x t, a a g e, s A p r i l M a y f a c e t o f a c e e l e c t r o n i c q u e s t i o n n a i r e s u p p o r t e d b y l a p t o p c o m b i n e d r e v e a l e d p r e f e r e n c e a n d s t a t e d p r e f e r e n c e a p p r o a c h s u b g r o u p s : q u e s t i o n s t a i l o r e d t o t h e c u r r e n t ( r e v e a l eod n) t ec xh to i c e c t e s t i n g r e a c t i o n s : t o t h e 1 0 % r e l a t i v e p r i c e i n c r e a s e o f t h e u s e d b u n d l e r( iwbheo d stuo b sa c b u n d l e ) t o a b u n d l e o f f e r g e t t i n g 1 0 %, 2 0 % d i s c o u n t ( w t h o g ho at s na b u n d l e ) i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f a t t i t u d e s b e h i n d r e v e a l e d a n d s t a t e d c h o i c e 8

9 S e r v i c e s h a r e b y t e c h n o l o g y telephone N=1000 internet N=1000 television N=100 0 PSTN/ISDN 37,4% Cable 20,5% Cable 56,1% Cable 5,9% ADSL 16,2% Analog terrestrial or free satellite 19,0% VOIP 0,2% Mobile internet 4,2% Paid Satellite 15,4% Micro, Wifi 2,3% IPTV 3,5% ISDN 0,5% Digital terrestrial 4,0% Other 2,8% Other 2,0% No 56,5% No 53,5% Total: 100% Total: 100% Total: 100% Hungarian special characteristics: high share of cable in TV, and leading role in broadband 9

10 S e r v i c e c o m b i n a t i o n s a n d b u n d l e s 3-play: 8.6% Multiplay: 31.2% 10

11 B u n d l e t y p e s Relative popularity of different bundles 3-play 25% tv + net 44% tel+net 16% tv + tel 15% 11

12 R e a c t i o n s: h a v i n g 2 s e r v i c e s s 12

13 R e a c t i o n s : h a v i n g t h r e e s e r v i ( c 1 e ) s 13

14 R e a c t i o n s : h a v i n g t h r e e s e r v i ( c 2 e ) s 14

15 R e a c t i o n s t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e ~275HUF = 1EUR 15

16 C r i t i c a l L o s s t e s t w i d e l y u s e d i n c o m p e t i t i o n c a s e s f o r m a r k e t d e f i n i t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o S S N I P h y p o t h e t i c a l m o n o p o l i s t o f t h e p r o d u c t i n c r e a s e t h e p r i c e w i t h 1 0 %, i f e x p e c t e d l o s s i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e C L t h r e s h o l d 1 0 % p r i c e i n c r e a s e r e s u l t e d i n p r o f i t n olt o sa s s e p a r a t e r e l e v a n t m a r k e t C L t h r e s h o l d v a l u e d e p e n d s o n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f f i x e d c o s t s i n p r i c e ( L -e rl ) n e r i n d e x m i n i m u m i s 9. 1 % i f L = 1, m a x i m u m % i f L = 0, n o n l i n e a r w e u s e d L = 0. 9 C L t h r e s h o l d = 1 0 % c o n s e r v a t i v e a c c o u n t i n g o f t h e r e s u l ts o: w abr id as s r e f u s i n g t h e s e p a r a t e m a r k e t h y p o t h e s i s 16

17 E x p e c t e d l o s s t a1 0 % i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e T V + n e t T V + p h o n e p h o n e + n e t 3 -p l a y A l l b u n d l e s D o n o t s w i t c h % % % % % S e a r c h f o r a c h e a p e r b u n d l e % % % % % B r e a k u p t h e b u n d l e 4. 8 % 3. 3 % 3. 9 % 7. 4 % 5. 1 % B r e a k u p a n d d i s c a r d o n e o f t h e s e r v i c e s 0. 7 % 6. 9 % 5. 2 % 1. 1 % 2, 4 % % % % % % w i t h c o r r e c t i o n s : t h o s e w h o w o u l d l i k e t o h a v e a c h e a p ebr u t b ucnadnl ne o, t w e r e r e c o d e d t o b r e a k u p t h e b u n d l e 17

18 I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s b u n d l e s e x p e c t e d l o s s : r a n g e : % 2 % 3 -p l a y e x p e c t e d l o s s : 8, 5 s% u g g e s t s t h a t i t w a s a s e p a r a t e m a r k e t i n H u n g a r y i n t h e a i m ( i. e. t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t t h e m e t h o d o l o g y w o r k s ) w a s f u l f i l l e d r e s u l t s a r e r a t h e r i n d i c a t i v e c o n s t r a i n t s o n s u r v e y c o m p e t i t i o n e c o n o m i c a p p r o a c h, b u t s o c i o l o g i c m e t h o d o l o g y c a n b e i m p r o v e d f o r r e g u l a t o r y p u r p o s e s 18

19 19

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