Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market. "Single CMO" Management Committee 19th January 2012

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1 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market "Single CMO" Management Committee 19th January 212

2 Evolution EU production HEADS EU 15 EU 25 EU % + 15 % Jan-Oct 11/1 EU 1 EU 2-2,9% -2,7% -2,8% Bulls -1,3% -21,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,7% Steers -15,9% +89,5% +4,9% +4,3% +4,2% Cow s +,2% -12,1% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % +1,% +5,2% +4,2% -1,4% -1,8% EU : +,1% +2,9% +2,% +1,7% -1,4% -3,8% -3,4% -5,3% -6,2% -3,8% +3,5% +,5% -,8% -,4% -3,6% -5,2% +3,% +,1% +6,3% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % Heifers -3,3% -3,% +,4% -3,1% -9,5% - 1 % -8,% -14,9% - 1 % Veals YBov -,6% -1,2% -1,1% -1,4% +52,5% +13,5% +13,2% +13,5% -6,% +28,8% - 15 % - 2 % - 25 % -15,8% - 15 % - 2 % - 25 % Tot Bov +,3% +,1% +,1% -1,7% -1,7% - 3 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK -27,9% - 3 % Estimates for last month of period : CY 2

3 Evolution EU production TONNES EU 15 EU 25 EU % + 15 % Jan-Oct 11/1 EU 1 EU 2 EU : +,3% Bulls Steers Cow s Heifers -2,1% -2,3% -2,3% -3,4% -24,3% -1,9% -1,9% -1,8% -12,1% +52,5% +4,6% +4,1% +4,% -,3% -8,3% -2,7% -2,6% -2,6% -,7% -21,5% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % - 1 % +6,3% +1,2% +2,3% -1,3% -1,5% -1,6% +2,4% +1,4% +3,8% -5,% +2,7% -2,5% -6,2% -7,4% -2,8% +4,1% +,% -1,6% -2,4% -2,7% -4,4% +2,7% -,8% +4,3% + 1 % + 5 % % - 5 % - 1 % Veals YBov -1,3% -1,6% -1,6% -16,% +51,4% +15,8% +15,4% +15,6% -17,5% +32,3% - 15 % - 2 % -15,7% -16,7% - 15 % - 2 % Tot Bov +,5% +,3% +,3% -2,4% -2,4% - 25 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK -22,5% - 25 % Estimates for last month of period : CY 3

4 Evolution EU production 14 1 TONS : Jan-Oct 1 / Jan-Oct 11 Cows 12 1 Steers 8 Bulls 6 Heifers 4 YBov 2 B E B G C Z D K D E E E I E G R E S F R I T C Y L V L T L U H U M T N L A T P L P T R O S I S K F I S E U K Calves 4

5 Evolution EU production Percentual change in Adult Cattle Slaughter Period: Jan - Nov. (EU 27= -,6%) Year: 211 / 21 12,5%,% -12,5% -25,% BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK EU 5

6 Slaughter in Tonn Evolution EU production Change in Veal Slaughter (Calves & Young Cattle) Period: Jan - November Year:21 & 211 2, 175, 15, Y. Cattle Calves 125, 1, 75, 5, 25,, BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK 6

7 Evolution EU production Avg WEIGHT EU 15 EU 25 EU % + 1 % Jan-Oct 11/1 EU 1 EU 2 +,8% +,5% +,5% Bulls -2,1% -3,1% + 5 % +6,4% +7,6% + 5 % Steers Cow s -,% -,% -,1% +4,5% -19,5% -,3% -,2% -,1% -,6% +4,3% % +1,% +,1% -1,6% -,6% +,2% +2,3% +,2% -,2% +,9% +,3% -1,% +,5% +1,1% +,% +,6% -,% -,8% -,4% -,3% -,7% -1,2% -1,7% -2,% -1,8% % Heifers +,6% +,5% +,4% -1,2% -13,3% - 5 % - 5 % Veals -,7% -,5% -,5% -6,2% -,7% EU : +,% YBov +2,% +1,9% +1,9% -12,3% +2,7% - 1 % -1,3% - 1 % Tot Bov +,1% +,% -,7% -2,3% +,% - 15 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK - 15 % Estimates ( HD ) for last month of period : CY Estimates ( TN ) for last month of period : CY 7

8 Evolution EU prices Young bull carcasses (A R3 /1 kg cw) A - R 3 > Wk W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W Avg Price in week 1 : 383, Average price in décembre 211 : 379,7 % change y/y : + 9,% % change y/y : + 9,2% 8

9 Evolution EU prices Steer carcasses (C R3 /1 kg cw) C - R 3 > Wk W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W Avg Price in week 1 : 391,21 Average price in décembre 211 : 383,43 % change y/y : + 19,1% % change y/y : + 2,% 9

10 Evolution EU prices 4,3 /1 kg cwe (A/C R3 /1 kg cw) % of Reference Price 18% 378,1 17% 355,8 16% 333,6 15% 311,4 14% 289,1 13% 266,9 12% 244,6 11% 222,4 AC - R 3 > Wk % W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W Avg Price in week 1 : 383,57 Average price in décembre 211 : 378,47 % change y/y : + 9,9% % change y/y : + 1,1% % Ref. Price in wk 1 : 172,5% 1

11 Evolution EU prices Cow carcasses (D O3 /1 kg cw) D - O 3 > Wk W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W Avg Price in week 1 : 282,9 Average price in décembre 211 : 276,99 % change y/y : + 16,9% % change y/y : + 17,2% 11

12 Evolution EU prices Heifer carcasses (E R3 /1 kg cw) E - R 3 > Wk W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W Avg Price in week 1 : 377,96 Average price in décembre 211 : 377,19 % change y/y : + 11,2% % change y/y : + 11,9% 12

13 Live bovines (1) Male store cattle (6-12 months; 3 kg /1 kg live weight) 25 Evolution EU prices BROUT W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W Avg Price in week 1 : 24,27 Average price in décembre 211 : 235,97 % change y/y : + 16,4% % change y/y : + 14,2% > Wk

14 / Head / Head Evolution EU prices Live bovines (2a) Male DAIRY CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks ( /head) > W DE - SCHWARZBUNTE DE - BRAUNVIEH ES - TIPO FRISON FR - MALES-ENGRAISSEMENT IE - DAIRY MALE IT - MALES-LAITIERS-VITELLI NL - ROODBONT-NUKAS NL - ZWARTBONT-NUKAS UK - DAIRY BULLS 14

15 / Head / Head Evolution EU prices Live bovines (2b) Male BEEF CALVES calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks ( /head) > W DE - FLECKVIEH DE - KREUZUNGSKALBER ES - TIPO CRUZADO FR - MALES-ELEVAGE IE - BEEF MALE IT - MALES-BOUCHERIE NL - VLEESRAS--NUKAS UK - BEEF BULLS 15 1

16 / 1 kg carcasse / 1 kg carcase Evolution EU prices Live bovines (3a) Butcher calves ( /1 kg cw) > W BE - VEAUX BLANCS E,U,R FR - VEAUX DE BOUCHERIE IT - CARNE BIANCA NL - VLEESKALF-ROOD NL - VLEESKALF-ZWART 16 35

17 uro/ head Evolution margin over animal + feed purchase costs 4 Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain fattening Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain FC 6-7 Feedcost x*7 Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight. Feed ration: 4% compound feed (energy + proteine), 15% barley, 15% maize, 2% wheat, 1% straw Carcase yield:.57 17

18 uro/ head Evolution margin over animal + feed purchase costs Remainder of: Selling price AR 3,minus purchased calf plus feedcost for grain/ grass fattening Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain FC 6-7 Feedcost x*7 Feed conversion rate: (FCR) 7 or 6 kg feed = 1kg live weight. Feed ration: 62,7% fodder (silage maize), 18,6% grains (maize + wheat, 13,3% soja cake, 5,3% straw Carcase yield:.57 18

19 EU beef trade EU exports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Destinations Jan-Nov 11 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Nov 1 Turkey 214,1% 24,1% 571,2% ,5% ,6% +++ Russia ,2% ,1% ,4% ,% ,8% + 4,5% Sw itzerland ,8% ,9% ,7% ,6% ,2% + 18,2% Croatia ,6% ,8% ,1% ,8% ,9% + 9,2% Lebanon ,5% ,9% ,1% ,% ,7% - 29,9% Algeria 1.674,7% 1.689,6% ,7% ,3% ,9% + 1,8% Other Destinations ,3% ,5% ,4% ,1% ,9% + 31,1% EXTRA EU 25/ % change + 18% - 15% + 95% + 4,3% 19

20 Tonnes cw 1, EUR EU beef trade EU exports of beef and live animals: Trade figures (COMEXT) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1 EUR) Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov Turkey Russia Switzerland Croatia Algeria Lebanon Other destinations Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 Turkey Russia Switzerland Croatia Algeria Lebanon Other destinations

21 in Tonnes cwe EU beef trade Exports of BEEF products Jan6 26 Jan7 27 Jan8 28 Jan9 29 Jan Jan11 Jan12 LIVE ANIMALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS 21

22 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 EU beef trade EU beef Exports to TURKEY Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters Live Animals Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quarters TOTAL

23 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 EU beef trade EU beef Exports to RUSSIA Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe Live animals Frozen Bovine meat TOTAL Fresh Bovine meat Beef Offals EU beef Exports to RUSSIA Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe

24 Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Apr 9 May 9 Jun 9 Jul 9 Aug 9 Sep 9 Oct 9 Nov 9 Dec 9 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov Tonnes CWE EU beef trade EU Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals (Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe) 2 Turkey Algeria 18 Lebanon Other

25 EU beef trade EU exports of beef and live animals (3): Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe) LIVE FRESH FROZEN TINNED G A T T Y E A R S TOTAL ANIMALS BEEF BEEF BEEF : Σ Week 1 > : ( W 28 ending 8 / 1 / 212 ) % Share ( W 28 ) 11,6% 68,2% 2,2% 1,% % Chg / Prev. Same Period - 3,2% - 33,2% - 45,1% - 35,7% EVOLUTION PER CATEGORY ( tonnes cw e - GATT years ) EVOLUTION IN EXPORT STRUCTURE ( % share - GATT years ) 2. 1% 15. 8% 6% 1. 4% 5. 2% Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Tinned beef W * % * W28 Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Tinned beef 25

26 EU beef trade EU imports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Origins Jan-Nov 11 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Nov 1 Brazil ,4% ,4% ,6% ,2% ,9% - 14,3% Argentina ,6% ,5% ,4% ,% ,5% - 22,2% Uruguay ,1% ,8% ,4% ,5% ,1% - 22,5% USA 2.746,5% ,7% ,2% ,% ,5% + 38,4% Australia ,8% ,3% ,9% ,6% ,5% + 39,5% New Zealand ,% ,2% ,7% ,6% ,9% + 1,7% Namibia ,9% ,6% ,9% ,6% ,9% - 35,8% Switzerland 2.855,5% 2.919,7% ,% ,2% ,7% + 28,7% Chile 2.844,5% 2.55,6% 3.158,7% 2.441,6% 2.49,7% - 7,7% Botswana ,5% ,6% ,7% ,2% 98,3% - 93,3% Serbia 2.324,4% 1.784,5% 99,2% 1.127,3% 712,2% - 3,9% EXTRA EU 25/ % change - 29% + 9% - 12% - 15,8% 26

27 EU beef trade EU imports of beef and live animals (2): Trade figures (COMEXT) IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe) In Tonnes cw e IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1 EUR) in 1 EUR Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 Jan-Nov 9 Jan-Nov 1 Jan-Nov 11 Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA New Zealand Other destinations Brazil Argentina Uruguay USA New Zealand Other destinations 27

28 in Tonnes cwe EU beef trade Imports of BEEF products Jan6 26 Jan7 27 Jan8 28 Jan9 29 Jan Jan11 Jan12 FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS 28

29 EU beef trade Trade balance on beef and live animals IMPORTS EXPORTS Tonne Jan- Nov 11 29

30 World beef market Index of monthly exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the uro 175, notification on the 1st of the month January 21 = 1 15, 125, 1, 75, I 27 I 28 I 29 I 21 I 211 I 212 Real US$ Ruble AUS$ CDN$ 3

31 India (up to May 11) EU Brazil Canada (up to Oct 11) Uruguay (up to Jul 11) Argentina (up to Oct 11) China + H. Kong Brazil India (up to May 11) Canada (up to Oct 11) New Zealand (up to Oct 11) EU Uruguay (up to Jul 11) China + H. Kong New Zealand (up to Oct 11) Argentina (up to Oct 11) Australia Australia Qty in 1 Tonnes United States (up to Oct 11) United States (up to Oct 11) World beef market Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (12), fats, preparations of several types of meat (29, and 162 9) Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to November) Order of countries based on 21 total exports (up to November) 211 (up to November) Only Jan-Apr 211 available for India (661 9 T in 21-4th main exporter) 31 * EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 21

32 EU South Korea Canada (up to Oct 11) Turkey EU United States (up to Oct 11) China + H. Kong United States (up to Oct 11) Russia (up to Oct 11) China + H. Kong Mexico (up to Sep 11) Japan South Korea Canada (up to Oct 11) Turkey Russia (up to Oct 11) Mexico (up to Sep 11) Japan Qty in 1 Tonnes. World beef market Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (12), fats, preparations of several types of meat (29, and 162 9) Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to November) Order of countries based on 21 total imports (up to November) 211 (up to November) 32 * EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 29

33 uro/ 1kg World beef market Market prices for Adult Male Bovine in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br), Argentina ( Oncca) Uruguay ( Inac) and EU 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Year 28 EU Beef A/C R3 Year 29 Novillos Export (Oncca Argent ina) Year 21 Year 211 Year 212 AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br) Media Res Novillo (Inac Uruguay) 33

34 World beef market 38, weekly US & EU Steer prices in uro/1kg carcase 33, 28, 23, 18, 13, 8, Steers 55-7lb Omaha (Nebraska) Feeder Steer 6-7lb Oklahoma City EU Beef C R3 Steers 15-12lb Okla/ Tex Canada: All Steers (agr,gc,ca) Australia: All Steers New Zeal. Avg steers T2 NI & SI 34

35 Conclusion 4 ALL CATEGORIES GLOBAL VIEW ( /1 kg cw ) A R3 35 C R3 3 D O Last Update : Week E R3 35

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